On Thursday, March 31, Deepak Chopra and I squared off for a second time in person in a public venue, this time accompanied by the physicist Leonard Mlodinow on my side and Stuart Hameroff on his side (along with other panelists). The question on the table was this:

“Is there an Ultimate Reality?” and if yes, “Can it be accounted for by science such as mathematics, biology and physics?”

My answers: YES and YES

I explained that I am a Materialist and a Monist. I do not believe that there is a body and a soul, there is just a body. There is no brain and mind, just brain. The mind is just a word we use to describe what the brain does. I said, “you know I’m right” (which got a surprising laugh from the audience) because of the evidence from strokes, tumors, brain damage, senility, dementia, and Alzheimer’s, all of which kill brain cells, and along with the loss of brain comes the loss of mind. I asked Deepak and Stuart where Aunt Millie’s mind goes when her brain slowly disappears from the effects of Alzheimer’s disease.

I noted that consciousness is just a word we use to describe our inner thoughts about the workings of the brain, and that our “soul” is just a pattern of information stored in our genes and our brains. Consciousness is just an emergent property of integrated brain modules and patterned firing of neural networks.

By contrast, I believe that Deepak’s use of the word “consciousness” is very anthropocentric, once again returning humans to a central place in the cosmos as the “observers” who, in quantum mechanics, brings things into existence. If Deepak is right then the moon doesn’t exist unless it is observed, and yet, quoting that great scientist Bill O’Reilly, “times come in, tides go out—never a missed communication—and they would do so whether or not humans, or any other conscious (or unconscious) being existed.

In fact, I said, Deepak’s quantum consciousness is not holistic but reductionistic in the extreme. We don’t need to go down that far. Quantum mechanics is not needed to explain brain functions: the neuron is the individual unit of thought, the “atom” of mind. I then worked in a little joke I wrote earlier in the day:

Quantum mechanics is spooky and weird.
Consciousness is spooky and weird.
So what? Charlie Sheen is spooky and weird, but we don’t need quantum mechanics to explain his behavior. His “tiger blood” theory works just fine.

Haha.

In Deepak’s worldview, everything is conscious, which means that there is no way to distinguish between consciousness and unconsciousness, which is how I often feel when I listen to Deepak.

Thought Experiment:

• If humans went extinct instead of Neanderthals, how does that effect the universe?
• What if the Earth were suddenly demolished by a rogue planet (as in 2012)? Would that mean the end of the universe because observers would disappear?
• Are whales, dolphins, gorillas and chimps conscious and therefore integral to the universe?
• What can it possibly mean to say that the universe is conscious? If you will pardon the nerd science pun, that is such a vacuous concept!

Before the debate Deepak asked me to read a paper by himself and Menas Kafatos and Rudolph Tanzi published in the Journal of Cosmology, entitled: “How Consciousness Becomes the Physical Universe.” Deepak asked me to comment on it, which I did in the second half of the debate. I noted that given the prominence of “consciousness” to the central theme of the paper that one might expect it to be defined with semantic precision. Nope. Here is what the authors write:

“We will sidestep any precise definition of consciousness, limiting ourselves for now to willful actions on the part of the observer.”

What can it possibly mean for the universe to be conscious in the sense of having willful actions? The universe behaves with willful action? The universe is an observer? As well, quantum mechanics only requires an observation of any kind: an electron microscope will do. Is an electron microscope willful? Does an electron microscope take action? The authors of this paper write:

Werner Heisenberg concluded that the atom “has no immediate and direct physical properties at all.” If the universe’s basic building block isn’t physical, then the same must hold true in some way for the whole. The universe was doing a vanishing act in Heisenberg’s day, and it certainly hasn’t become more solid since. And Heisenberg again: “The atoms or elementary particles themselves … form a world of potentialities or possibilities rather than one of things or facts.”

No, sorry, these are different levels of analysis. To prove it I challenge Deepak to climb to the top of this building and jump off and see if the ground is a potentiality or a thing! They also write:

Heisenberg: “What we observe is not nature itself, but nature exposed to our method of questioning.” Reality, it seems, shifts according to the observer’s conscious intent.

Once again, NO! This would imply that anyone’s method of questioning is just as valid as anyone else’s, which would mean that the way astrologers question the universe is just as valid as that of astronomers. I concluded by saying that if you want to get a spacecraft to Mars the questions that astronomers ask are absolutely objectively really better than those of astrologers. Q.E.D.!

In Deepak’s rebuttal, in discussing quantum mechanics, he actually used the phrase “the womb of creation.” Nice. It’s that sort of precise language that makes people all gushy and mushy about science. I pressed him for a definition of consciousness, which he gave me as “consciousness is the ground of existence.” I replied that this sounded tautological to me: since reality needs consciousness to come into existence, this means that reality = consciousness = existence; or existence = existence. A is A. Very Aristotelian. But what does that really tell us?

In the end I pressed both Deepak and Stuart Hameroff for an answer as to where Aunt Millie’s mind goes during the ravages of Alzheimer’s disease. Stuart’s answer was so rapid fire and jargon laden (something about the collapse of the wave function inside the microtubules in the neurons inside Aunt Millie’s brain) that I couldn’t quite get an answer, so Deepak clarified it for me later: Aunt Millie’s mind is in the matrix. Okay, I asked, how does poor Aunt Millie access the matrix. “We’re working on that,” was the reply. Okay, fine, and if our memories really are stored somewhere outside of our brains, then that would indeed be one of the greatest discoveries ever made in the history of science: Nobel worthy. But, until that is proven, I remain … skeptical.

Post Script

I am often asked if I believe that Deepak believes what he says, with an underlying assumption behind the question that Deepak is knowingly selling snake oil and doesn’t really believe his public patter. Having gotten to know Deepak over the years I can assure you that he absolutely positively believes what he says, and that while he may make a lot of money in the process of writing books, giving lectures, hosting radio and television shows, and running his various business enterprises (but, hey, that’s not exactly something anathema in America), this fact is quite orthogonal to his deeper mission in life: to shift the Western worldview Eastward.

I had never met Stuart Hameroff before, but I liked him as well, sharing a beer after the debate while watching a Laker game and schmoozing about science. Although I do not accept his theory of consciousness (most neuroscientists are skeptical as well), it would be fun to engage him again in a spirited debate over the brain and the mind.

Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP) offer a lesson on the residue problem in science

ONE MORNING SEVERAL YEARS AGO a black triangular-shaped object flew over my home in the San Gabriel Mountains in southern California. It was almost completely silent, made rapid turns and accelerations, and was so nonreflective it looked like a hole in the sky, almost otherworldly. It was, in fact, the B-2 Stealth Bomber, looping around to make another run over the Pasadena Rose Parade on January 1, an annual tradition. But had I not known what it was and seen it first, say, out in the desert at dusk, I might easily have thought it a UFO.

For decades black triangularshaped objects have been labeled UFOs. Now a cohort of military, aviation and political observers would like to change the label to a less pejorative phrasing—Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP)— and their efforts to be taken seriously have resulted in a new book by investigative journalist Leslie Kean entitled UFOs: Generals, Pilots, and Government Officals Go on the Record (Crown, 2010). Kean asks readers to consider that such sightings represent “a solid, physical phenomenon that appears to be under intelligent control and is capable of speeds, maneuverability, and luminosity beyond current known technology,” that the “government routinely ignores UFOs and, when pressed, issues false explanations,” and that the “hypothesis that UFOs are of extraterrestrial or interdimensional origin is a rational one and must be taken into account.” (continue reading…)

We are thrilled to announce that Skepticblog has added a new regular blogger, Dr. Donald Prothero, a world class geologist and paleontologist who teaches at both Occidental College and Caltech. Don is one of the most respected scientists in his field having won the award for the best geologist under 40 (the same award won by Stephen Jay Gould), and one of the most popular science writers today, having just penned the incredibly timely book Catastrophes: Earthquakes, Tsunamis, Tornadoes, and other Earth-Shattering Disasters, which found him on numerous television news shows the day after the Japanese disaster. Dr. Prothero is on the scientific board of advisors for the Skeptics Society and Skeptic magazine, lectures regularly for the Skeptics Society’s Distinguished Science Lecture Series at Caltech, leads the society’s wildly popular field trips, and writes and reviews for Skeptic regularly as one of the world’s expert debunkers of creationism and Intelligent Design. Don’s bio is a stunning tribute to his erudition and productivity as a scientist and public intellectual. We are fortunate to have him in our pantheon.

READ Prothero’s first post on SkepticBlog.

Every week I receive invitations to speak at various venues around the world. On March 15, 2011, I received the following invitation to speak in London. As I was running out the door to go on my morning bike ride, I missed the obvious cues that this was a scam:

Dear Michael Shermer,

My Name is Prof. Peter Kopelman from the London Youth Community Here in London UK. We want you to be our guest speaker at this Year ST’ GEORGE UNIVERSITY , which will take place here in UK. We are writing to invite and confirm your booking to be our Guest Speaker at these year ST’ GEORGE UNIVERSITY Event.

The Venue as follows:
VENUE: St George’s University of London,
Cranmer Terrace, London, SW17 0RE.
Email:stgeorgeuniversityoflondon@gmail.com
Expected audience: 500 people
Duration of speech per speaker: 7PM-8PM
Name of Organization: ST’GEORGE UNIVERSITY
Topic:MEDICAL
Date: Wednesday 30 March 2011.

We came across your profile on http://www.amazingmeeting.com/speakers and we say it’s up to standard and we will be very glad to have such an outstanding personality in our mist for these overwhelming gathering. With your multi talented speech more lives will come close , Sorry about our late invitation it is due to the fact that our Speaker had back out because of her sudden illness.

Arrangements to welcome you here will be discussed as soon as you honor our invitation. If you have any more publicity material, please do not hesitate to contact me. A formal Letter of invitation would be sent to you as soon as you honor our invitation. We are taking care of your traveling and Hotel Accommodation expenses including your Speaking fees.

Remain Blessed
Prof. Peter Kopelman
stgeorgeuniversityoflondon@gmail.com
ST’GEORGE UNIVERSITY.
Ofice(+44) 702-401-8034

I responded that I wanted $5000 with partial payment up front and a first-class or business-class flight, plus hotel. Only later in the day did I look carefully at the email and notice this guy’s spelling and grammar was pretty bad for a university professor, plus the fact that his university uses a gmail account! His March 16 response to my request reads (and by “mist” does he mean the famous London fog?!):

Respected Michael Shermer,

Thanks for indicating your interest to be our Guest Speaker at this year ST’ GEORGE UNIVERSITY. We are  very excited and happy to have such a wonderful personality in our mist. We the event organizing committee had a meeting earlier today to deliberate on getting you available here within a short period of time. We believe we serve the lord of possibilities.Arrangements are stated below.

We have agreed to buy your flight ticket and to pay your Hotel accommodation expenses . Also your Speaking fee is amounted to $5,000(USD), Three Thousand (USD) deposit is to be paid as soon as you procure all relevant travel documents  so as to avoid any disappointment.You are informed to get across your CERTIFICATE to us so your deposit can be approved according to our mandated rules and regulation.

You are advised by the Event Organizing committee to immediately contact the BRITISH EMBASSY to procure your ANTI-TERRORIST CERTIFICATE as soon as possible

This will enable us to proceed with all arrangements to welcome you here in London. Contact the BRITISH EMBASSY information below.

BRITISH EMBASSY CONTACT
Name: Dr Alex Alfred
British Email: britishembassyservice@gmail.com

Please confirm to us the closest Airport to your location so we can start making arrangements to buy your flight tickets .Understand that you need to expedite action because of the short notice. Feel free to ask any question.

We have attached a formal Letter of Invitation  and contract agreement.Please reconfirm to us your office Address for our perusal and further action.Note you are meant to arrive a day before the commencement of the event.

Please return a signed copy of the contract agreement for proper documentation.

We await your earliest response

Remain Blessed
Prof. Peter Kopelman
stgeorgeuniversityoflondon@gmail.com
ST’ GEORGE UNIVERSITY.
+44 702 401 8034
Ofice(+44) 702-401-8034

Um, strange, “Alex” at the British Embassy also has a gmail account. And I wondered what this “anti-terrorism certificate” was all about, which I was quick to find out when I received this letter from the British Embassy Service:

ATTN CLIENT,

YOU ARE HEREBY ADVISED BY THE UK BORDER AGENCY TO IMMEDIATELY OBTAIN AN ANTI-TERRORIST CERTIFICATE IN ORDER TO BE GIVEN THE PERMIT WITHOUT ANY DELAY.THESE VITAL DOCUMENT WILL ONLY COST YOU ONLY 1000POUNDS,YOU CAN IMMEDIATELY SEND THE MONEY TO THE UK BORDER AGENT IN CHARGE OF YOUR PROCUREMENT VIA THE INFORMATION BELOW THROUGH WESTERN UNION.

UK BORDER AGENCY.
NAME:MRS KELLY CONMAN
ADDRESS: 114 ROMFORD ROAD LONDON,UNITED KINGDOM.
POSTCODE E12 6PY

AS SOON AS I RECEIVE THE WESTERN UNION MONEY TRANSFER RECEIPT I WILL TAKE THE PAYMENT RECEIPT TO THE OFFICIAL AT THE AGENCY,SO SHE CAN PROCEED ON PROCURING THE ANTI TERRORIST CERTIFICATE WHICH IS VALID FOR 3YEARS.ATTACHED BELOW IS THE ANTI-TERRORSIT CERTIFICATE APPLICATION FORM PRINT AND FILL IN THE INFORMATION BLOCK,REATTACH AND RESEND IT TO ME ALONG SIDE WITH YOUR WESTERN UNION MONEY TRANSFER RECEIPT.

IN YOUR SERVICE,
DR ALEX ALFRED
BRITISH EMBASSY SERVICE.

So the British Embassy now sends letters out in ALL CAPS with no stationary? And “Mrs. Kelly Conman”? I think I know her husband, “Lefty Conman.” I replied:

Peter,

I just got an email from Alex at the British Embassy. I’m afraid that I cannot afford the 1,000 pounds. I do not have any money in my account as I have just paid my taxes. If you can wire transfer the U.S. $3000 advance per my instructions in the previous email then I can take care of this.

Michael

“Prof Peter” replied:

Let me know how much you can afford then we can add to you from the university. I will be waiting to hear from you .

Wow, so the British Embassy is willing to negotiate the price of this certificate, depending on how much someone can afford. I responded:

Peter,

As for what I can afford, as I said I have no money in the account I sent you as I just paid my taxes. So I will need you to wire transfer $3000, then I can pay the $1000 anti-terrorist certificate. I have alerted my bank to expect a wire transfer from you, and I gave them all your personal information, so they are expecting a wire transfer from you today. When that transaction is complete then I will take care of the anti-terrorist certificate.

Michael

“Prof Peter” then wrote:

This is the form for you to fill out for me so we can transfer you the deposit as soon as possible. I will be waiting to hear from you.

NAME ON THE CARD:
BILLING ADDRESS:
CARD NUMBER:
EXP DATE:
CCV:
CARD LIMIT:
AMOUNT OWING:
BANK NAME AND ADDRESS:
BANK TOLL FREE NUMBER:
DATE OF BIRTH:
MOTHER MAIDEN NAME:
SSN:
CELL PHONE NUMBER:
HOME PHONE:
DEBIT AND PREPAID CARD ARE NOT ACCEPTED

Um, credit card information? It was time to up the ante in this little game. So, I wrote:

Hello Peter,

I am very excited about coming to your university. And to tell you the truth I really need the money because, as I told you, I’m flat broke after paying my taxes. I gave you the information for transferring money into my account so when receipt of the $3000 is confirmed then I will follow the instructions from the British Embassy to send 1,000 pounds to them in order to get my anti-terrorist certificate. Otherwise I cannot pay the 1,000 pound fee and will not be able to come to London. That would be very sad.

In the meantime, I have a favor to ask of you. Would you please take a picture of yourself with a copy of my magazine, Skeptic magazine, in front of St. George University? I want to know what you look like so that when we meet in London I can find you at the airport.

Michael Shermer

The morning of March 17 I received the following email and photographs:

Dear Michael,

Good morning to your , have just got your mail and is nice hearing from you . Attach is the some of the photos of the university compound, the staff my photo of myself as well also the inside of the conference , am also standing in front of the university glass. Also as soon as you have procure the ANTI-TERRORIST CERTIFICATE, the hotel confirmation will be send to you as soon as possible.

Also get me aware as soon as you have send your payment to Dr Ales , so i can start up with the bookings of both the Flight and Hotel

I will be waiting to hear back from you as soon as possible ..

Remain Blessed,
Prof Peter

Golly, that photo of Prof Peter standing in the doorway is so real looking! Time to get crazy with this loon:

Dear Professor Peter,

Thank you ever so much for the confirmation letter and photographs. I was wondering if you know the woman in the photograph next to the university sign? She is beautiful. I was wondering if you could fix me up on a date with her when I get there. I am single and am looking for a wife and have always loved English women. I love their accents, don’t you? Can you tell me her name and give me her email address so that I may introduce myself?

I will print out the anti-terrorist certificate form today per your instructions and send it to the British Embassy. I lost the email that Alex sent me, but I have the address of the British Embassy and will send the form and money to them. When they send me back the certified form I will email it to you.

Thank you,
Michael

“Prof Peter” Replied:

Dear Michael,

Thanks for your mail , the woman you are talking about is one of the student and she is just 29 yrs old , there is no problem about that, I will hook you up with her when you get here . Also send your payment to Dr Alex to the address he gave to you , you can mail him if they can receive credit card.

I will be waiting for the signed copy of the contract agreement.

Remain blessed.

Well, if he’s willing to bless me and fix me up on a date with one of his students, how bad could this guy be? Let’s find out…

Dear Prof Peter:

My friend with money to lend me tells me that there are a lot of fraudsters out there and to be careful. If you or one of your associates or students will make a sign that says “I’m Skeptical” and stand in front of Buckingham Palace and take a picture of it and send it to me, I promise that I will send you the money. I need some sort of proof. Anyone could have pulled those photographs of St. George’s University off the web page. I need something personalized as proof, and the “I’m Skeptical” sign will do it. I promise.

Oh, also, my friend with the money wants to come with me. Will he need an anti-terrorist certificate as well? Is it the same price, or can we purchase two at the same time for a discounted price? Also, as I asked before, can we pay by credit card? I was wondering if we authorized $1500 for two certificates would that be acceptable? Please check with Alex at the British Embassy and let me know.

Michael

I then received this March 18 reply from Prof Peter:

Dear Michael,

Thanks for your mail , i did not have any prove after all you ask me to get a photographer of myself at the front of the university and
have done that , i  have show you some prove , i have never deal with such a speaker like you before you are making this issue long. Also
the woman you are talking about , i have see her yesterday and i have discuss with her , she can not also wait to see you.

Well i have conclude with the Committee organization and they have agree with you opinion , paying the 1500usd for both of you, and the
university has agreed to pay the remaining of the payment for the certificate .

As you can see that we did not have much time to waste on this , and again do not disappoint us , because the university can’t wait to have
you in our mist event the woman .

The name of the woman is MARIA BRETT, and you can get in touch with her on the following email address … mariabrett28@yahoo.com.

Make the payment to Dr Alex as soon as possible , then try and call me on +44 702 401 8034 as soon as you have send the payment to him , so i can start up with the Flight Booking and Hotel accommodation.

I will be waiting to hear back from you as soon as you receive my mail

Remain blessed.;
Prof Peter.

Time to get crazy with “Maria” (who, of course, is just this dude with a different email address):

Dear Maria,

My name is Michael. I believe that Professor Peter Kopelman from your school has mentioned me to you. I am coming to London on March 30 to speak at St. George’s University. Professor Peter sent me a picture of the school and I asked him about you as you are in the picture. I would like to meet you when I am in town and maybe go out on a date. Would you like to have tea with me? Isn’t that a very British thing to do? Please tell me a little more about you, plus send me some photographs of you. I very much want to see what you look like before we meet.

Blessed be to you,
Michael

Then I wrote to Peter:

Maria has written me back. I am even more excited about coming to London, now just 13 days away! We are going to go out on a date!!

I finally have the money together for the anti-terrorism certificate and will take care of that today. But FIRST, Peter, you must provide me with personalized PROOF that I am really dealing with you and not some scammer. I need you to get one of your students to hold up a sign that says in big letters “I’m Skeptical”. If you do not do this then I am not going to send the payment today. If you go do this right now then I will go straight away to the office and send Alex the money. I have $1500 to wire to him today. If you want the $1500 you will make me the proof sign. If you don’t make the sign, I will not send you the $1500.

Michael

Then, amazingly, “Maria” writes back:

Is not that i did not want to send it , but i want you to come to Uk first then we can meet ..And again , Prof Peter told me that you will be coming to UK  soon that you have not procure the certificate , make it as soon as possible so we can meet . I will be waiting to hear from you . Also i will be waiting to receive your lecture here in UK  as well .
  
Maria

I responded:

Dear Maria, 

I finally got the money today to get my anti-terrorism certificate. I am going to take care of that today, but I have asked Peter for proof that this is not some internet scam. You know you can’t be too careful these days. You never know who you are talking to online, right? That’s why I am asking you for a picture. I need proof that I am actually writing a real person, a woman named Maria. You could be anyone. 

So, please send me a picture of you holding a sign that says “I’m Skeptical” and then I will have proof and will send my money.

Michael

The reply from Prof Peter finally came:

Dear Michael,

Have just taken a photographer which you requested for we are trying to best just for you to know that this is a real event coming up. As soon as you have send the payment to Dr Alex, send me the copy of the certificate, also the signed copy of the contract am still expecting it .

I will be waiting to hear back from you as soon as possible, I will also love to have a coffee with you when you get here.

Remain blessed,
Prof Peter.

And from “Maria”:

Dear Michael,

You are right , but i will have to confused you that am also happy that this event is coming up and i will love if you can understand . I know how you feel but i also want to know you as well . See my photo and i hope you will like them those are my new photo . also send me yours as
well . And again , i will be waiting for you in UK to meet you first before anything .

Bye for now
Maria

Time to get tough with Prof Peter … I wrote:

That’s not what I requested. This is just a photoshopped picture. Obviously you are not serious. I have $1500 in my bank account and I was going to go down to the Western Union office and wire it to Alex today, but I see no need to continue to waste my time and money when you cannot agree to my requirements, goodbye.

Prof Peter decided to get tough back … He wrote:

Dear Michael,

We did not have time to waste and let me know if you are not interesting any more .

Bye.

Time to play my trump card—the “anti-terrorism” certificate, constructed for me by Pat Linse, the Art Director of Skeptic magazine!

Dear Professor Peter and Dr. Alex,

I have very good news! I decided to trust you and so this afternoon I went down to the British Counsulate-General in Los Angeles and I wire transferred $1500 from my bank account with Washington Mutual (account #666-42-1999) to the British Embassy through Western Union. Did you get it? They gave me a confirmation number to give you:

Western Union Wire Transfer Confirmation #419-2011-1984

They also gave me the Anti-Terrorist Certificate, which they signed and told me to scan and to send to you. I have attached it below. 

So, please, book my airline reservation and hotel and send me the confirmation numbers right away. I can’t wait to come to London and speak at your university. My friend with the money is coming with me. He will pay for his own flight and will book it himself once you tell me what flight you have booked me on. 

Blessed be to you,
Michael

I also wrote to Maria:

Maria,

I am writing to tell you the good news that this afternoon I went down to the British Counsulate-General in Los Angeles and I wire transferred $1500 from my bank account to the British Embassy through Western Union.

They gave me the Anti-Terrorist Certificate, which I have attached it below. 

So now I can come to London and we can go out on our date together. Where would you like to go? Do you think you can introduce me to Prince William? 

By the way, you look different in the photographs you sent me from that photograph in the university picture. You had much lighter skin in that photograph but darker skin now. Have you been out in the sun getting a tan?

Please send me some more photographs of yourself, and make me the “I’m Skeptical” sign.

Michael

Finally, on Sunday March 20, Prof Peter wrote back:

Dear Michael,

I did not understand you at all , and again i did not know what you mean about the confirmation you are talking about and again you hav
procure a wrong certificate this is not the certificate we issue and you are not to procure Los Aneles but UK certificate. i will advise
you to go back to them and collet your money back that you did not need that certificate again , then you send the payment to the address
Dr Alex gave you .

I will be wating to hear back from you as soon as you have receive my mail .

Remain Blessed,
Prof Peter.

I didn’t respond for awhile, so Prof Peter wrote me with more “proof”:

Dear Michael,

Maria brought this photo to me on my office and told me that this is what you have been requesting for , i hope you are satisfy now .

I will be waiting to hear back from you .

Warm Regards.

Okay, now it’s time to get really crazy! So I wrote back:

Prof. Peter and Dr. Alex,

I’m shocked and very upset. Do you mean to tell me that I wasted $1500? Someone scammed me. I am going back down to that Los Angeles office and demand my money back tomorrow. I will keep you informed.

In the meantime, I have a wealthy donor who wants me to put together a scholarly book and he’s willing to pay $20,000 for a book about why the last four American presidents have been in reality alien beings from another planet. Do you know anyone interested in contributing such a book, maybe some of the professors at your university? A sample article would need to be provided since this donor is very demanding – he is an eccentric Buddhist nudist who believes that public nudism is not only healthy but essential to world peace. Do you know any nudist professors in need of $20,000? I can bring the money with me next week when I come to London. Are travelers’ checks ok? 

My wealthy donor sent me the picture below as proof of President Bush as an alien, and the alien who converted him.

Michael

Surely now the spam scammers will realize that they are being scammed! Apparently not, as this came in a day later:

Dear Michael ,

I got your mail and i was so sad because if you have listen to me this will not have happen and is because you did not following my word
and all you think is maybe we are trying to scam you . Well as you have stated in the mail , go back to them and collect your money back
, then send it to Dr Alex. As soon as you have send the payment to Dr Alex get back to me so i can start up with the Flight booking and
Hotel reservation and again the payment you are paying to Dr Alex will be payed back to you as soon as you come to London .

We can not wait to have you in our mist, also to have a coffee with you also Maria can not wait to go with a date with you .

I will be waiting to hear back from you as soon as you have read my mail.

As soon as you have get the payment back send it to Dr Alex , then when you get here we will talk about the Donor together with the staff here in the university.

I will be waiting to hear back from you .

Warm Regards
Prof Peter.

That brings us up to date to the present moment. I think I’ll pull the plug on this silliness now and get back to work, but at least I wasted this guy’s time and distracted him from possibly duping someone into actually sending in money. Oh, by the way, when I noticed that he said he got my name from The Amazing Meeting list of speakers, I queried the other speakers at TAM and, sure enough, they all received the same invitation to speak!

So much for scamming the spam scam scammers. It was worth a few laughs.

What does the democratic uprising in Egypt and other Arab nations have to do with IBM’s Jeopardy champion Watson in determining the fate of civilization? Think bottom up, not top down; think exponential growth, not linear change; think crowd sourcing, not elite commanding; and think open access and transparency, not closed entree and secrecy. Under the influence of these four forces, such seemingly unconnected events are, in fact, connected at a deeper level when we pull back and examine the overall trajectory of the history of civilization.

1. Bottom up, not top down. Almost everything important that happens in both nature and in society happens from the bottom up, not the top down. Water is a bottom up, self-organized emergent property of hydrogen and oxygen. Life is a bottom up, self-organized emergent property of organic molecules that coalesced into protein chains through nothing more than the input of energy into the system of Earth’s early environment. Evolution is a bottom up process of organisms just trying to make a living and get their genes into the next generation, and out of that simple process emerges the diverse array of complex life we see today. An economy is a self-organized bottom up emergent process of people just trying to make a living and get their genes into the next generation, and out of that simple process emerges the diverse array of products and services available to us today. And democracy is a bottom up emergent political system specifically designed to displace top down chiefdoms, kingdoms, theocracies, and dictatorships.
2. Exponential growth, not linear change. Science and technology have changed our world more in the past century than it changed in the previous hundred centuries—it took 10,000 years to get from the cart to the airplane, but only 66 years to get from powered flight to a lunar landing. Moore’s Law of computer power doubling every eighteen months continues unabated and is now down to about a year. Computer scientists calculate that there have been thirty-two doublings since World War II, and that as early as 2030 we may encounter the Singularity—the point at which total computational power will rise to levels that are so far beyond anything that we can imagine that they will appear near infinite. And not just in raw number crunching power but in cognitive processing ability, as witnessed in the difference between IBM’s Deep Blue chess playing master and IBM’s Jeopardy champion.
3. Crowd sourcing, not elite commanding. Knowledge production has been one long trajectory of shifting not only from top down to bottom up, but from elite commanding to crowd sourcing. From ancient priests and medieval scholars, to academic professors and university publishers, to popular writers and trade publishing houses, to everyone their own writer and publisher online, the democratization of knowledge has struggled alongside the democratization of societies to free itself from the bondage of top down control. Compare the magisterial multi-volume encyclopedias of centuries past that held sway as the final authority for reliable knowledge, now displaced by individual encyclopedists employing wiki tools and making everyone their own expert.
4. Open access and transparency, not closed entrée and secrecy. The Internet is the ultimate bottom up self-organized emergent property of crowd sourcing millions of computer users in an open access and transparent exchange of language, knowledge, and data across servers; although there are some top-down controls involved—just as there are some in mostly bottom-up economic and political systems—the strength of digital freedom derives from the fact that no one is in charge.

For the past 10,000 years humanity has gradually but ineluctably transitioned from top down to bottom up, from linear change to exponential growth, from elite commanding to crowd sourcing, and from secrecy to transparency. Together these forces are driving us to Civilization 2.0 on a scale I derived for classifying the rich array of human societies throughout history:

Civilization 1.1: Fluid groups of hominids living in Africa. Technology consists of primitive stone tools. Intra-group conflicts are resolved through dominance hierarchy, and between-group violence is common.

Civilization 1.2: Bands of roaming hunter-gatherers that form kinship groups with a mostly horizontal political system and egalitarian economy and utilizing sophisticated tools to extract what they could from relatively resource poor environments.

Civilization 1.3: Tribes of individuals linked through kinship but with a more settled and agrarian lifestyle with the beginnings of a political hierarchy and a primitive economic division of labor and employing mostly animal and human labor.

Civilization 1.4: Chiefdoms consisting of a coalition of tribes into a single hierarchical political unit with a dominant leader at the top, and with the beginnings of significant economic inequalities and a division of labor in which lower-class members produce food and other products consumed by non-producing upper-class members.

Civilization 1.5: The state as a political coalition with jurisdiction over a well-defined geographical territory and its corresponding inhabitants, with a mercantile economy that seeks a favorable balance of trade in a win-lose game against other states.

Civilization 1.6: Empires that extend their control over peoples who are not culturally, ethnically or geographically within their normal jurisdiction, with a goal of economic dominance over rival empires.

Civilization 1.7: Democracies that divide power over several institutions, which are run by elected officials voted for by a limited number of citizens as defined by race, gender, and class, with the beginnings of a market economy.

Civilization 1.8: Liberal democracies that give the vote to all adult citizens regardless of race, class, or gender, and utilizing markets that begin to embrace a nonzero, win-win economic game through free trade with other states.

Civilization 1.9: Democratic capitalism, the blending of liberal democracy and free markets, now spreading across the globe through democratic movements in developing nations and broad trading blocs such as the European Union.

Civilization 2.0: Globalization that includes worldwide wireless Internet access, with all knowledge digitized and available to everyone, a completely global economy with free markets in which anyone can trade with anyone else without interference from states or governments. A planet where all states are democracies in which everyone has the franchise.

Reaching Civilization 2.0 is not inevitable. As we are witnessing in Arab countries this month, resistance by nondemocratic states to turning power over to the people is considerable, especially in theocracies whose leaders would prefer we all revert to Civilization 1.4 chiefdoms. But by spreading liberal democracy and free trade, science and technology and the open access to knowledge through computers via the Internet will, in the words on a plaque posted at the Suez Canal: Aperire Terram Gentibus—To Open the World to All People.