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<channel>
	<title>The Work of Michael Shermer</title>
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	<link>http://www.michaelshermer.com</link>
	<description>books, essays, columns, reviews, and multimedia clips of famed skeptic Michael Shermer</description>
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		<title>Cultivate Your Garden</title>
		<link>http://www.michaelshermer.com/2010/02/cultivate-your-garden/</link>
		<comments>http://www.michaelshermer.com/2010/02/cultivate-your-garden/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 01 Feb 2010 20:00:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael Shermer</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Scientific American]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[conspiracy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[patternicity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[superstition]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.michaelshermer.com/?p=1605</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[How a lack of control leads to superstition  and what can be done about it

Imagine a time in your life when you felt out of control—anything from getting lost to losing a job. Now look at the Figure 1 on this page. What do you see? Such a scenario was presented to subjects in [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h5>How a lack of control leads to superstition <br /> and what can be done about it</h5>
<div class="sciamfloatright_largecover"><img src="http://michaelshermer.com/writing/wp-content/uploads/cover_2010-02.jpg" alt="magazine cover" width="217" height="287" class="cover" /></div>
<p>Imagine a time in your life when you felt out of control—anything from getting lost to losing a job. Now look at the Figure 1 on this page. What do you see? Such a scenario was presented to subjects in a 2008 experiment by Jennifer Whitson of the University of Texas at Austin and her colleague Adam Galinsky of Northwestern University . Their study, entitled “Lacking Control Increases Illusory Pattern Perception,” was published in <em>Science</em>.</p>
<p>Defining “illusory pattern perception” (what I call “patternicity”) as “the identification of a coherent and meaningful interrelationship among a set of random or unrelated stimuli … (such as the tendency to perceive false correlations, see imaginary figures, form superstitious rituals, and embrace conspiracy beliefs, among others),” the researchers’ thesis was that “when individuals are unable to gain a sense of control objectively, they will try to gain it perceptually.” As Whitson explained the psychology to me, “Feelings of control are essential for our well-being—we think clearer and make better decisions when we feel we are in control. Lacking control is highly aversive, so we instinctively seek out patterns to regain control—even if those patterns are illusory.”<span id="more-1605"></span></p>
<div class="imagefloatright" style="width: 254px; margin-top: 10px; margin-right: 0;"><img src="http://www.michaelshermer.com/writing/wp-content/uploads/matt-collins-illo-feb2010-A.png" alt="illustration by Matt Collins" title="" width="250" height="169" class="diagram" />
<p class="caption">Figure 1</p>
</div>
<p>Whitson and Galinsky sat subjects before a computer screen, telling them that they would be presented with a series of images for which they were to determine the underlying concept. For example, they might see a capital A and a lowercase a, one or both of which could be colored, underlined, or surrounded by a circle or square. Subjects would then generate an underlying concept, such as that all capital As are red or surrounded by a circle. There was no actual underlying concept—the computer randomly combined characteristics and was programmed to tell the subjects that they were frequently either “correct” or “incorrect.” Consequently, the ones hearing that they were often wrong developed a sense of lacking control. In the second part of the experiment subjects were shown 24 “snowy” photographs, half of which contained hidden images such as a hand, horses, a chair or the planet Saturn [see Figure 2], whereas the other half just consisted of grainy random dots. Although nearly everyone saw the hidden figures, subjects in the lack-of-control group saw more figures in the photographs that had no embedded images.</p>
<div class="imagefloatright" style="width: 254px; margin-top: 10px; margin-right: 0;"><img src="http://www.michaelshermer.com/writing/wp-content/uploads/matt-collins-illo-feb2010-B.png" alt="illustration by Matt Collins" title="" width="250" height="169" class="diagram" />
<p class="caption">Figure 2</p>
</div>
<p>In another experiment Whitson and Galinsky had subjects vividly recall an experience in which they either had full control or lacked control over a situation. The subjects then read scenarios in which the characters’ success or failure was preceded by unconnected and superstitious behaviors, such as foot stomping before a meeting where the character wanted to have ideas approved. The subjects were then asked whether they thought the characters’ behavior was related to the outcome. Those who had recalled an experience in which they lacked control were significantly more likely to perceive a greater connection between the two unrelated events than were those who recalled a controlling situation. Interestingly, the low control subjects who read a story about an employee who failed to receive a promotion tended to believe that a behind-the-scenes conspiracy was the cause.</p>
<p>In their final experiment Whitson and Galinsky gave one group of subjects a sense of control by asking them to contemplate and affirm their most important values in life—a proven technique for reducing learned helplessness. The researchers then presented those same snowy pictures, finding that a comparison group of subjects in a lack-of-control condition with no opportunity for self-affirmation saw more nonexistent patterns than did those in the self-affirmation condition.</p>
<p>In 1976 Harvard psychologist Ellen J. Langer and Judith Rodin, now president of the Rockefeller Foundation, conducted a study in a New England nursing home in which the residents were given plants, but only some had the opportunity to water them. Those residents who were in charge of watering the plants lived longer and healthier lives than the others, even those given plants watered by the staff. The sense of control had the apparent effect on physical health and well-being. Perhaps this is what Voltaire meant at the end of <em>Candide</em>, in the title character’s rejoinder to Dr. Pangloss’s proclamation that “all events are linked up in this best of all possible worlds”: “’Tis well said,” replied Candide, “but we must cultivate our gardens.”</p>
<p class="footnote">(Illustrations copyright 2010 Matt Collins)</p>
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		<title>Charles Darwin … the Movie</title>
		<link>http://skepticblog.org/2010/01/26/charles-darwin-the-movie/</link>
		<comments>http://skepticblog.org/2010/01/26/charles-darwin-the-movie/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 26 Jan 2010 13:00:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael Shermer</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[SkepticBlog]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://skepticblog.org/?p=6188</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A review of Creation: The True Story of Charles Darwin. Starring Paul Bettany and Jennifer Connelly. Jon Amiel Director, Jeremy Thomas Producer, John Collee writer. Recorded Picture Company with BBC Films and Ocean Pictures. Based on Randal Keynes’s book Annie’s Box. In general release January 22, 2010.

Creation is one of the most beautifully produced, artfully [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p class="note">A review of <em>Creation: The True Story of Charles Darwin</em>. Starring Paul Bettany and Jennifer Connelly. Jon Amiel Director, Jeremy Thomas Producer, John Collee writer. Recorded Picture Company with BBC Films and Ocean Pictures. Based on Randal Keynes’s book <em>Annie’s Box</em>. In general release January 22, 2010.</p>
<p><img src="http://skepticblog.org/wp-content/uploads/creation-movie-poster.jpg" alt="Creation movie poster" title="Creation movie poster" width="250" height="174" class="alignleft size-full wp-image-6231" /></p>
<p><em>Creation</em> is one of the most beautifully produced, artfully directed, factually accurate, and powerfully acted biopic films ever made. Full stop. It stars Paul Bettany as the Charles Darwin almost no one knows (and looking almost eerily similar if you match him to portraits of Darwin at that time), and Jennifer Connelly as the Emma Darwin almost invisible to history (and whose stunning Hollywood beauty is forgotten as she morphs into a realistic portrayal of a 19th century Englishwoman). The script is based on Randal Keynes’s biographical work, <em>Annie’s Box</em>, a moving portrait of the middle-aged Darwin—after the five-year voyage of the Beagle and before the white-bearded sage of Down basked in scientific triumph—as he struggled intellectually and emotionally to put the pieces of natural history together into a cogent theory. It is also about Charles Darwin the man, husband and father, besieged by health problems that curtailed his work days to only a few hours, stressed by the normal strains of marriage, and agonizing over the death from a mysterious disease of his beloved 10-year old daughter.<span id="more-6188"></span></p>
<p>The film opens with the capture and return of indigenous natives of Tierra del Fuego, in the hopes that such “savages” could be saved by culture (British of course) and seeded to their native lands to spread the Queen’s English (and manners) and save their souls for God and country. (Of course, the Fuegians promptly ripped their clothes off and returned to the lifestyle appropriate for their culture.) Thankfully, the film wisely steers wide of the myth that Darwin discovered natural selection in the Galapagos Islands, and instead reveals what really happened (and what almost always happens in science) in Darwin’s halting and desultory steps to putting all the pieces of his theory together over many years after his return to England.</p>
<p>The hindsight bias that dictates so much of historical reconstruction—where every step along the way is pregnant with meaning for what we know is coming—is mercifully absent in <em>Creation</em>. Instead we find a Darwin unsure of himself. He doesn’t know what we know, and the films takes us on the intellectual journey of discovery with Darwin, as he also tries to balance work with family life and his incessant physical problems that finds him on regular visits to the town of Malvern to undergo James Manby Gully’s water cure therapy—what we would today call quack science—involving a naked Darwin standing in a shower-like stall being bombarded by waves of water. Presumably the shock to the system would shake up his innards enough to cure him. It didn’t.</p>
<p>The leitmotif of <em>Creation</em>, however, is not evolution so much as it is life and death and love. The love of a man and a woman, the love of a father and a child, and the life and death of an idea (God) and a child (Annie). Darwin has many children (almost everyone did in his time), but he was especially fond of his eldest daughter Annie, and one part of the leitmotif is Darwin’s recounting to her of the story of the death of Jenny, a young orangutan captured in Borneo and transported to the London Zoo, where it subsequently died of pneumonia in the arms of her caretaker. It’s a metaphor, of course, for Annie dying in the arms of her father, in a hotel room in Malvern when Darwin took her there for a worthless water cure therapy treatment. Since I have a daughter about whom I feel the same way Darwin did for his beloved Annie, the scene where Darwin subsequently returns to the Malvern hotel room and sobs uncontrollably on the bed where Annie died was so empathically painful that I could barely sit through it. And the portrayal of the strain Annie’s death puts the Darwin marriage through is surely not an exaggeration.</p>
<p>The other stress in Darwin’s marriage was his science and Emma’s religion. Darwin knew that people would think that his theory, in Thomas Huxley’s words, “killed god,” and he also knew that this fact would pain his wife, who worried for her husband’s soul to the point that she wrote him letters to that effect. It is, in fact, the likeliest reason why Darwin avoided the growing conflict between science and religion. Toward the end of his life he received many letters querying him on his religious attitudes. Darwin’s long-silence gave way to a few revelations. In one letter penned in 1879, just three years before he died, Darwin explained: “In my most extreme fluctuations I have never been an Atheist in the sense of denying the existence of God. I think that generally (and more and more as I grow older), but not always, that an Agnostic would be the more correct description of my state of mind.”</p>
<p>A year later, in 1880, Darwin clarified his reasoning to the British socialist Edward Aveling, who solicited Darwin’s endorsement of a group of radical atheists. Darwin declined the offer, elaborating his reason: “It appears to me (whether rightly or wrongly) that direct arguments against christianity &#038; theism produce hardly any effect on the public; &#038; freedom of thought is best promoted by the gradual illumination of men’s minds which follow[s] from the advance of science. It has, therefore, been always my object to avoid writing on religion, &#038; I have confined myself to science. I may, however, have been unduly biased by the pain which it would give some members of my family, if I aided in any way direct attacks on religion.” Emma was a deeply religious woman, so out of love and respect for her, Darwin kept the public side of his religious skepticism in check, an admirable feat of self-discipline by a man of high moral character.</p>
<p>Go see this beautiful film about such an estimable man, an honorable woman, and an enduring love.</p>
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		<title>The Tarot Card Reading</title>
		<link>http://www.michaelshermer.com/2010/01/the-tarot-card-reading/</link>
		<comments>http://www.michaelshermer.com/2010/01/the-tarot-card-reading/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Jan 2010 20:20:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael Shermer</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[multimedia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fraud]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[pseudoscience]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[psychics]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.michaelshermer.com/?p=1593</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Michael Shermer fakes a psychic/tarot/astrology reading in this episode of Bill Nye&#8217;s show The Eyes of Nye.

]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Michael Shermer fakes a psychic/tarot/astrology reading in this episode of Bill Nye&#8217;s show <em>The Eyes of Nye</em>.</p>
<p><object width="480" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/P5PlpHIPMKU&#038;hl=en_US&#038;fs=1&#038;"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/P5PlpHIPMKU&#038;hl=en_US&#038;fs=1&#038;" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="480" height="385"></embed></object></p>
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		<title>In the Name of God: The Neuron Bomb of Terrorism</title>
		<link>http://skepticblog.org/2010/01/12/the-neuron-bomb-of-terrorism/</link>
		<comments>http://skepticblog.org/2010/01/12/the-neuron-bomb-of-terrorism/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Jan 2010 13:00:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael Shermer</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[SkepticBlog]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://skepticblog.org/?p=5991</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Nothing fuels religious extremism more than the belief that one has found the absolute moral truth. Islamic terrorism, for example, has gradually shifted from secular motives in the 1960s to religious motives today. A 2000 study by the state department that resulted in the publication Patterns of Global Terrorism, found that in 1980 there were [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Nothing fuels religious extremism more than the belief that one has found the absolute moral truth. Islamic terrorism, for example, has gradually shifted from secular motives in the 1960s to religious motives today. A 2000 study by the state department that resulted in the publication <em>Patterns of Global Terrorism</em>, found that in 1980 there were only two out of sixty-four militant Islamic groups whose mission was religiously based. In 1995 that figure had climbed to nearly half. The figure is undoubtedly higher today. (<a rel="nofollow" href="http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/54249.pdf">http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/54249.pdf</a>)</p>
<p>It is a type of fuel that can lead to what <a href="http://www.claynaff.com/">Clay Farris Naff</a>, Executive Director of the Center for the Advancement of Rational Solutions in Lincoln, Nebraska, cleverly calls the “neuron bomb,” after its cold-war counterpart, the “neutron bomb,” designed to kill people while leaving buildings and infrastructure in tack. A schematic of the neuron bomb looks like this:<span id="more-5991"></span></p>
<ul>
<li><em>Arming Device</em>: Belief that God’s enemies must be defeated or destroyed</li>
<li><em>Concealment</em>: Can be implanted in any human mind</li>
<li><em>Cost</em>: Practically nothing</li>
<li><em>Explosive Materials</em>: Anything at hand</li>
<li><em>Destructive Potential</em>: Unlimited</li>
</ul>
<p>As Naff explains, the arming device is difficult to defuse: “Unlike the cold war stability brought on by MAD—the doctrine of mutual assured destruction—in this situation we cannot count on knowing whom to blame. We cannot negotiate treaties with them. We cannot count on their will to live. There is simply no limit to what some people will do in God’s name.”</p>
<p>Salman Rushdie minced no words in <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/books/2002/mar/09/society.salmanrushdie">his analysis of the problems between India and Pakistan</a>, two religiously-based political systems poised intermittently on the brink of nuclear holocaust: </p>
<blockquote><p>The political discourse matters, and explains a good deal. But there’s something beneath it, something we don’t want to look in the face: namely, that in India, as elsewhere in our darkening world, religion is the poison in the blood. So India’s problem turns out to be the world’s problem. What happened in India has happened in God’s name. The problem’s name is God.</p></blockquote>
<p>To be more accurate, India’s problem—and the world’s—is extremism in the name of God, even in the industrial and democratic West. “All faiths that come out of the biblical tradition—Judaism, Christianity and Islam—have the tendency to believe that they have the exclusive truth,” writes Rabbi David Hartman of the Shalom Hartman Institute in Jerusalem. “When the Taliban wiped out the Buddhist statues, that’s what they were saying. But others have said it too.” (Quoted in Kristof, N. D. 2002. “All-American Osamas,” <em>The New York Times</em>, June 7, A27.)</p>
<p>And it’s not just an Islamic problem. Listen to the words of the current Pope, who when he said them in August 2000 was Cardinal Ratzinger: “With the coming of the Saviour Jesus Christ, God has willed that the Church founded by Him be the instrument for the salvation of all humanity. This truth of faith &#8230; rules out, in a radical way&#8230;the belief that ‘one religion is as good as another.’” (Quoted in Kristof, cited above.)</p>
<p>Yes, some religions are better than others, and some are worse. How can we tell the difference? Here’s a test: if I am not a member of your religion, or if I don’t believe in your God—indeed if I don’t belong to any religion or believe in any gods—will my liberties or my life be taken away from me? If your answer is “no,” then your religion is better than any religion who encourages or insists that it’s members deprive nonbelievers of life or liberty.</p>
<p>Better according to what standard? Is there a moral standard that stands above all the world’s religions that is based on some transcendent source? There is. And it isn’t supernatural. </p>
<div style="margin-bottom: 40px;"><a href="http://trueslant.com/michaelshermer/2010/01/08/why-not-ask-god-for-moral-guidance/"><strong>Read my post at TRUE/SLANT</strong> for the explanation…</a></div>
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		<title>Kool-Aid Psychology</title>
		<link>http://www.michaelshermer.com/2010/01/kool-aid-psychology/</link>
		<comments>http://www.michaelshermer.com/2010/01/kool-aid-psychology/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 01 Jan 2010 08:00:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael Shermer</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Scientific American]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[optimism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[positive thinking]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[psychology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[self-help]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[skepticism]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.michaelshermer.com/?p=1563</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[How optimism trumped realism in the positive-psychology movement

I am, by nature, an optimist. I almost always think things will turn out well, and even when they break I am confident that I can fix them. My optimism, however, has not always served me well. Twice I have been hit by cars while cycling— full-on, through-the-windshield [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h5>How optimism trumped realism in the positive-psychology movement</h5>
<div class="sciamfloatright_largecover"><img src="http://michaelshermer.com/writing/wp-content/uploads/cover_2010-01.jpg" alt="magazine cover" width="217" height="287" class="cover" /></div>
<p>I am, by nature, an optimist. I almost always think things will turn out well, and even when they break I am confident that I can fix them. My optimism, however, has not always served me well. Twice I have been hit by cars while cycling— full-on, through-the-windshield impacts that were entirely the result of my blissful attitude that the street corners I had successfully negotiated hundreds of times before would not suddenly materialize an automobile in my path. Such high-impact, unpredictable and rare events are what author Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls “black swans.” Given enough time, no upward sloping trend line is immune from dramatic collapse.</p>
<p>A bike crash as a black swan is, in fact, an apt metaphor for what the investigative journalist and natural-born skeptic Barbara Ehrenreich believes happened to America as a result of the positive-thinking movement. In her engaging and tightly reasoned book <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0805087494?ie=UTF8&#038;tag=skepticcom-20&#038;linkCode=as2&#038;camp=1789&#038;creative=390957&#038;creativeASIN=0805087494"><em>Bright-Sided</em></a> (<a href="http://www.skeptic.com/productlink/av207">order on DVD Ehrenreich&#8217;s lecture at Caltech</a>), she shows how the positive-psychology movement was born in the halcyon days of the 1990s when the economy was soaring, housing prices were skyrocketing, and positive-thinking gurus were cashing in on the motivation business. Academic psychologists, armed with a veneer of scientific jargon, wanted in on the action.<span id="more-1563"></span></p>
<p>The shallow bafflegab of such positive-thinking pioneers as Norman Vincent Peale (<a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0743234804?ie=UTF8&#038;tag=skepticcom-20&#038;linkCode=as2&#038;camp=1789&#038;creative=390957&#038;creativeASIN=0743234804" rel="nofollow"><em>The Power of Positive Thinking</em></a>, 1952) and Napoleon Hill (<a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1585424331?ie=UTF8&#038;tag=skepticcom-20&#038;linkCode=as2&#038;camp=1789&#038;creative=390957&#038;creativeASIN=1585424331" rel="nofollow"><em>Think and Grow Rich</em></a>, 1960) or the “prosperity gospel” preachings of such contemporary “pastorpreneurs” as Frederick “Reverend Ike” Eikerenkoetter, Robert Schuller and Joel Osteen are predictably data-light and anecdote-heavy. But one expects better of respected experimental psychologists such as Martin E. P. Seligman, who almost singlehandedly launched the positive-psychology movement in academia that is, according to the <a href="http://www.ppc.sas.upenn.edu">Positive Psychology Center website</a>, “the scientific study of the strengths and virtues that enable individuals and communities to thrive.” Ehrenreich systematically deconstructs—and then demolishes—what little science there is behind the positive psychology movement and the allegedly salubrious effects of positive thinking. Evidence is thin. Statistical significance levels are narrow. What few robust findings there are often prove to be either nonreplicable or contradicted by later research. And correlations (between, say, happiness and health) are not causations. Seligman and his colleagues drank the positive-thinking Kool-Aid, Ehrenreich shows, but she provides the antidote.</p>
<p>Take Seligman’s “happiness equation” (physics envy lives!): H = S + C + V (Happiness = your Set range + the Circumstances of your life + the factors under your Voluntary control). As Ehrenreich notes, “if you’re going to add these things up you will have to have the same units [of measurement] for H (happy thoughts per day?) as for V, S, and C.” When she confronted Seligman with this problem in an interview, “his face twisted into a scowl, and he told me that I didn’t understand ‘beta weighting’ and should go home and Google it.” She did, “finding that ‘beta weights’ are the coefficients of the ‘predictors’ in a regression equation used to find statistical correlations between variables. But Seligman had presented his formula as an ordinary equation, like E = <em>mc</em><sup>2</sup>, not as an oversimplified regression analysis, leaving himself open to literal-minded questions like: How do we know H is a simple sum of the variables, rather than some more complicated relationship, possibly involving ‘second order’ effects such as CV, or C times V?” We don’t know, thereby rendering the equation nothing more than a slogan gussied up in math.</p>
<p>Isn’t positive thinking better than negative thinking? All other things being equal, sure, but the alternative to being either an optimist or a pessimist is to be a realist. “Human intellectual progress, such as it has been, results from our long struggle to see things ‘as they are,’ or in the most universally comprehensible way, and not as projections of our own emotions,” Ehrenreich concludes. “What we call the Enlightenment and hold on to only tenuously, by our fingernails, is the slow-dawning understanding that the world is unfolding according to its own inner algorithms of cause and effect, probability and chance, without any regard for human feelings.”</p>
<p>Feelings matter, of course, but the first principle of skepticism is not to fool ourselves, and feelings—both positive and negative—too often trump reason. In the end, reality must take precedence over fantasy, regardless of how it makes us feel.</p>
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		<title>9/11 Truthers Foiled Again</title>
		<link>http://skepticblog.org/2009/12/29/911-truthers-foiled-again/</link>
		<comments>http://skepticblog.org/2009/12/29/911-truthers-foiled-again/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 29 Dec 2009 13:00:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael Shermer</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[SkepticBlog]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://skepticblog.org/?p=5795</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Hey 9/11 Truthers, CNN is reporting that al Qaeda just took credit for the Northwest Airlines terrorist attack:
Be prepared to suffer because the killing is coming and we prepared you men who love death just as you love life and by God’s permission, we will come to you with more things that you have never [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hey 9/11 Truthers, CNN is reporting that al Qaeda just took credit for the Northwest Airlines terrorist attack:</p>
<blockquote><p>Be prepared to suffer because the killing is coming and we prepared you men who love death just as you love life and by God’s permission, we will come to you with more things that you have never seen before. Because, as you kill, you will be killed and tomorrow is coming soon. The martyrdom brother was able to reach his objective with the grace of God but due to a technical fault, the full explosion did not take place.</p>
<p class="quoteauthor">—al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula
</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Still think that al Qaeda did not orchestrate 9/11? Still think this is all an “inside job” by the Bush administration? Just who do you think Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab worked for? George Bush? Abdulmutallab’s own father ratted him out after he was radicalized by Muslim extremists — was that all part of the “inside job” as well? What was that sewn up in his underwear, the same superthermite that Bush operatives used to bring down the World Trade Center buildings with planted explosive devices?</p>
<p>Will someone from the 9/11 Truth camp please wake up and accept the fact that when al Qaeda takes credit for 9/11, says that they would do it again, and then tries, we should take them at their word.</p>
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		<title>Design Inference, or the Difference  Between DNA and a PDA</title>
		<link>http://skepticblog.org/2009/12/15/design-inference/</link>
		<comments>http://skepticblog.org/2009/12/15/design-inference/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 Dec 2009 12:00:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael Shermer</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[SkepticBlog]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://skepticblog.org/?p=5542</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Intelligent Design creationist Stephen Meyer and his online followers are upset that in our big debate I did not specifically address his claims about inferring design in complex structures such as DNA. I will do so now. By way of background, they note:
Intelligent design scientists like Meyer argue in favor of design theory based on [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Intelligent Design creationist Stephen Meyer and his online followers are upset that in our big debate I did not specifically address his claims about inferring design in complex structures such as DNA. I will do so now. By way of background, <a href="http://www.evolutionnews.org/2009/12/after_getting_waxed_in_debate.html">they note</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>Intelligent design scientists like Meyer argue in favor of design theory based on the recognition of things like the digital information in DNA and the complex molecular machines found in cells. As Meyer patiently explained to Shermer in the debate, they do so because invariably we know from experience that complex systems possessing such features <em>always arise from intelligent causes</em>.</p></blockquote>
<p>As Meyer explains (“Word Games: DNA, Design, and Intelligence.” <em>Touchstone</em>, Vol. 12, No. 4, 44-50): “Design theorists infer a prior intelligent cause based upon present knowledge of cause-and-effect relationships. Inferences to design thus employ the standard uniformitarian method of reasoning used in all historical sciences, many of which routinely detect intelligent causes.” Archaeologists, for example, employ criteria to discriminate between natural-made and human-made artifacts. “Intelligent agents have unique causal powers that nature does not. When we observe effects that we know only agents can produce, we rightly infer the presence of a prior intelligence even if we did not observe the action of the particular agent responsible.” DNA, for example, was no more naturally designed than the pyramids. If it looks intelligently designed, it was.<span id="more-5542"></span></p>
<p>I have four objections to this argument:</p>
<ol>
<li>The inference to design is subjective. Sometimes it is obvious, other times it is not. There is an obvious difference between the face on Mars that is an eroded mountain and a face on Mount Rushmore that is an intelligently designed (carved) President’s face. But the difference between, say, a rock and a chipped-stone tool made by an <em>Australopithicene</em> three million years ago is not obvious.</li>
<li>The inference to design is specific to each claim. In the chipped-stone problem, a rock that has been chipped on both sides in a symmetrical fashion is more likely to be intelligently designed than naturally flaked. Nevertheless, archaeologists infer many false positives, and there is no sure-fire design inference algorithm that applies to all archaeological problems, let alone one that applies to all scientific fields. The set of criteria used by archaeologists to determine whether a stone was chipped by chance or design is completely different from the set of criteria used by astronomers to determine whether a signal from space is natural or artificial.</li>
<li>We perceive nature to be intelligently designed because of our experience of human artifacts that we know are intelligently designed since we can observe them being made and we have vast experience with human artificers. We know an intelligently designed PDA (Personal Digital Assistant) when we see one. By contrast, we have no experience with an intelligent designer outside of the human realm, and no experience with a supernatural agent outside of inferring his existence through gaps in our knowledge of mysteries as yet unexplained. What experience do we have of structures such as DNA being created by which we could construct an a design inference algorithm? None.</li>
<li>We must be cautious about inferring design because our experience with intelligently-designed artifacts in our culture biases us to see intelligent design where none exists (for example, Virgin Mary apparitions on glass panes). Long before Darwin debunked William Paley’s watchmaker argument, the Enlightenment philosopher Voltaire satirized this problem in his classic novel <em>Candide</em> through his character Dr. Pangloss, a professor of “metaphysico-theology-cosmolonigology”: “Tis demonstrated that things cannot be otherwise; for, since everything is made for an end, everything is necessarily for the best end. Observe that noses were made to wear spectacles; and so we have spectacles. Legs were visibly instituted to be breeched, and we have breeches.”</li>
</ol>
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		<title>From Faitheist to Fundagnostical</title>
		<link>http://skepticblog.org/2009/12/01/from-faitheist-to-fundagnostical/</link>
		<comments>http://skepticblog.org/2009/12/01/from-faitheist-to-fundagnostical/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Dec 2009 12:00:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael Shermer</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[SkepticBlog]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://skepticblog.org/?p=5341</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Last week, while I was giving thanks for an abundance of family, friends, and food, a brouhaha was brewing over an invited opinion editorial I wrote for CNN celebrating the 150th anniversary of the publication of Charles Darwin’s On the Origin of Species (on Tuesday, November 24).
The title, “Religion, Evolution can Live Side by Side,” [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Last week, while I was giving thanks for an abundance of family, friends, and food, a brouhaha was brewing over an invited <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2009/OPINION/11/23/shermer.why.darwin.matters/">opinion editorial I wrote for CNN</a> celebrating the 150th anniversary of the publication of Charles Darwin’s <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1402756399?ie=UTF8&#038;tag=skepticcom-20&#038;linkCode=as2&#038;camp=1789&#038;creative=390957&#038;creativeASIN=1402756399"><em>On the Origin of Species</em></a> (on Tuesday, November 24).</p>
<p>The title, “Religion, Evolution can Live Side by Side,” was written by the CNN editors, but it does capture the thrust of the piece which I concluded by noting that if you are a believer in an eternal god, what difference does six zeros make on when the creation happened — 10,000 or 10,000,000,000 years ago — or by what method of creation was used: spoken word or big bang?</p>
<p>Well, this <a href="http://whyevolutionistrue.wordpress.com/2009/11/26/michael-shermer-theologian/">set off a mild firestorm</a> among some observers of the science-and-religion debate, most prominently the estimable Jerry Coyne, the author of one of the best books ever written on the subject, <em>Why Evolution is True</em>, in his website of the same title called me an “accommodationist” and even a “faitheist” (“faith atheist”?)<span id="more-5341"></span></p>
<p>I <a href="http://trueslant.com/michaelshermer/2009/11/27/realist-not-accommodationist-what-is-the-right-way-to-respond-to-theists/">responded to Jerry on my TRUE/SLANT blog</a>, and had a good horselaugh (which according to Martin Gardner trumps 10,000 syllogisms) at the comment by Lewis Grossberger (who also blogs at True/Slant): “As far as I’m concerned, there’s only one thing worse than a faitheist — and that’s a fundagnostical. I hope you’re not one of those.”</p>
<p>Continuing in the neologistic theme, “Furcas” says that my writing is “faitheistic accommodationism in its purest and most disgusting form.”</p>
<p>Another good horselaugh was provided by a physicist <a href=%22http://helives.blogspot.com/2009/11/michael-shermer-did-not-expect-spanish.html%3cbr />
">at his own blog</a>: “Michael Freakin’ Shermer’s heart is not pure enough for Jerry Coyne. If Jerry Falwell’s circle of orthodoxy was, say, 1 meter in radius, then His Worshipfulness The Right Reverend Jerry Coyne’s circle of orthodoxy has a radius of, roughly, a Planck Length.”</p>
<p><a href="http://santitafarella.wordpress.com/2009/11/26/dissent-in-new-atheistland-jerry-coyne-takes-after-michael-shermer/">This comment</a> well captured my position and needs no further comment:</p>
<blockquote><p>What Shermer is trying to make peace with are sensible moderate theists, not fundamentalists. It is the people in the middle, not those on the fringes, who will, ultimately, determine the virulence of religion and irreligion. Shermer is trying to reduce religion’s virulence, not embracing fundamentalist ownership of the Bible, and it’s ridiculous interpretations of it. Shermer is right to reclaim the Bible as part of the Western cultural patrimony, and not leave it to fundamentalists to tell us what it means, and the implications to be drawn from it.</p></blockquote>
<p>How one responds to theists all depends on the context and goals of the response. I think we nonbelievers have fallen into black-and-white thinking on the question of “what is the ‘right way’ to respond?” The answer is that <em>there is more than one way</em>. There are multiple ways, all of which work, depending on the context. Sometimes a head-on, take-no-prisoners, full-frontal assault á la Richard Dawkins, Christopher Hitchens, or Jerry Coyne is the way to go. Sometimes a more conciliatory approach á la Carl Sagan, Stephen Jay Gould, or your humble servant is best. It all depends on the context and what you are trying to accomplish. </p>
<p>By the way, agreeing with my alleged critics for a moment, I do not actually think that Dawkins and Hitchens are rude or disrespectful. If you read their works or listen to them in public lectures and debates, they are forceful, clear, and unwaivering, but they are not disrespectful. Watch, for example, the recent body slam Hitchens and Stephen Fry gave the Catholic Church for its stance on women’s rights, birth control, and 3rd-world poverty. It was focused and direct, but not disrespectful.</p>
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<p>It is my goal, and the goal of the <a href="http://www.skeptic.com/">Skeptics Society</a>, to educate as many people as possible about the power and wonders of science and to employ science to solve social, political, economic, medical and environmental problems. As such, we need as many people as we can get on board with a common goal, whatever it may be (starvation in Africa, disease in India, poverty in South America, global warming everywhere … pick your battle). My concern is that if we insist that people of faith renounce every last ounce of their beliefs before they are allowed to join the common fight against these scourges of humanity, we have just alienated the vast majority of the world’s population from our project. </p>
<p>Sometimes religion is the problem — and when it is let’s not hesitate to call it out. I did so myself on the day before Thanksgiving on Hugh Hewitt’s radio show in a <a href="http://www.hughhewitt.com/transcripts.aspx?id=e28a84d7-ddbc-46ac-9f72-30ee8ca6edae">debate with Dinesh D’Souza</a> when Hewitt insisted that we thank God for our abundance and that believing in God leads to a prosperous nation like America. I pointed out — without accommodationism, faitheism, or fundagnosticalism — that 99% of everyone in Peru is Christian and yet they are dirt poor. Why? Because of warring political factions, governmental corruption, lack of education, resource depletion, currency debasement, inflation, and especially the lack of property rights and the rule of law. </p>
<p>So let’s not accommodate or pander in those areas where religion is clearly a problem or unmistakably mistaken. But not all (or even very many) social problems are caused by religion, so let’s pick our battles carefully and choose our strategies wisely.</p>
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		<title>Political Science</title>
		<link>http://www.michaelshermer.com/2009/12/political_science/</link>
		<comments>http://www.michaelshermer.com/2009/12/political_science/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Dec 2009 07:00:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael Shermer</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Scientific American]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ethics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[morality]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[psychology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stereotypes]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.michaelshermer.com/?p=1404</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Psychological research reveals how  and why liberals and conservatives differ

Humans are, by nature, tribal and never more so than in politics. In the culture wars we all know the tribal stereotypes of what liberals think of conservatives: Conservatives are a bunch of Hummer-driving, meat-eating, gun-toting, hard-drinking, Bible-thumping, black-and-white- thinking, fist-pounding, shoe-stomping, morally hypocritical blowhards. [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h5>Psychological research reveals how <br /> and why liberals and conservatives differ</h5>
<div class="sciamfloatright_largecover"><img src="http://michaelshermer.com/writing/wp-content/uploads/cover_2009-12.jpg" alt="magazine cover" width="217" height="287" class="cover" /></div>
<p>Humans are, by nature, tribal and never more so than in politics. In the culture wars we all know the tribal stereotypes of what liberals think of conservatives: <em>Conservatives are a bunch of Hummer-driving, meat-eating, gun-toting, hard-drinking, Bible-thumping, black-and-white- thinking, fist-pounding, shoe-stomping, morally hypocritical blowhards.</em> And what conservatives think of liberals: <em>Liberals are a bunch of hybrid-driving, tofu-eating, tree-hugging, whale-saving, sandal-wearing, bottled-water-drinking, ACLU-supporting, flip-flopping, wishy-washy, namby-pamby bed wetters</em>.</p>
<p>Like many other stereotypes, each of these contains an element of truth that reflects an emphasis on different moral values. Jonathan Haidt, who is a psychologist at the University of Virginia, explains such stereotypes in terms of his Moral Foundations Theory (see <a href="http://www.moralfoundations.org/">www.moralfoundations.org</a>), which he developed “to understand why morality varies so much across cultures yet still shows so many similarities and recurrent themes.” Haidt proposes that the foundations of our sense of right and wrong rest within “five innate and universally available psychological systems” that might be summarized as follows:<span id="more-1404"></span></p>
<ol>
<li><em>Harm/care</em>: Evolved mammalian attachment systems mean we can feel the pain of others, giving rise to the virtues of kindness, gentleness and nurturance.</li>
<li><em>Fairness/reciprocity</em>: Evolved reciprocal altruism generates a sense of justice.</li>
<li><em>Ingroup/loyalty</em>: Evolved in-group tribalism leads to patriotism.</li>
<li><em>Authority/respect</em>: Evolved hierarchical social structures translate to respect for authority and tradition.</li>
<li><em>Purity/sanctity</em>: Evolved emotion of disgust related to disease and contamination underlies our sense of bodily purity.</li>
</ol>
<p>Over the years Haidt and his University of Virginia colleague Jesse Graham have surveyed the moral opinions of more than 110,000 people from dozens of countries and have found this consistent difference: self-reported liberals are high on 1 and 2 (<em>harm/ care</em> and <em>fairness/reciprocity</em>) but are low on 3, 4 and 5 (<em>in-group loyalty</em>, <em>authority/respect</em> and <em>purity/sanctity</em>), whereas self-reported conservatives are roughly equal on all five dimensions, although they place slightly less emphasis on 1 and 2 than liberals do. (Take the survey yourself at <a href="http://www.yourmorals.org/">www.yourmorals.org</a>.)</p>
<p>Instead of viewing the left and the right as either inherently correct or wrong, a more scientific approach is to recognize that liberals and conservatives emphasize different moral values. My favorite example of these differences is dramatized in the 1992 film <em>A Few Good Men</em>. In the courtroom ending, Jack Nicholson’s conservative marine Colonel Nathan R. Jessup is being cross-examined by Tom Cruise’s liberal navy Lieutenant Daniel Kaffee, who is defending two marines accused of accidentally killing a fellow soldier. Kaffee thinks that Jessup ordered a “code red,” an off-the-books command to rough up a disloyal marine trainee in need of discipline and that matters got tragically out of hand. Kaffee wants individual justice for his clients. Jessup wants freedom and security for the nation even at the cost of individual liberty, as he explains:</p>
<p>“Son, we live in a world that has walls. And those walls have to be guarded by men with guns&#8230;. You don’t want the truth because deep down, in places you don’t talk about at parties, you want me on that wall. You need me on that wall. We use words like honor, code, loyalty. We use these words as the backbone to a life spent defending something. You use ’em as a punch line. I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and sleeps under the blanket of the very freedom I provide, then questions the manner in which I provide it.”</p>
<p>Personally, I tend more toward the liberal emphasis on individual fairness, justice and liberty, and I worry that overemphasis on group loyalty will trigger our inner xenophobias. But evolutionary psychology reveals just how deep our tribal instincts are and why good fences make good neighbors. And I know that ever since 9/11, I am especially grateful to all the brave soldiers on those walls who have allowed us to sleep under a blanket of freedom.</p>
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		<title>Junior Skeptic Goes Rogue</title>
		<link>http://skepticblog.org/2009/11/17/junior-skeptic-goes-rogue/</link>
		<comments>http://skepticblog.org/2009/11/17/junior-skeptic-goes-rogue/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Nov 2009 12:00:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael Shermer</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[SkepticBlog]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://skepticblog.org/?p=5126</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Welcome Daniel Loxton to the Pantheon of Skeptical Bloggers
Another person north of the border goes rogue this week, and I don’t mean Sarah Palin. I am pleased to announce that Daniel Loxton, the editor and illustrator for Junior Skeptic magazine, the artist and designer for many Skeptic magazine covers, the author of the forthcoming (in [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h4>Welcome Daniel Loxton to the Pantheon of Skeptical Bloggers</h4>
<p>Another person north of the border goes rogue this week, and I don’t mean Sarah Palin. I am pleased to announce that Daniel Loxton, the editor and illustrator for <a href="http://www.skeptic.com/junior_skeptic/"><em>Junior Skeptic</em></a> magazine, the artist and designer for many <a href="http://www.skeptic.com/"><em>Skeptic</em></a> magazine covers, the author of the forthcoming (in February) of the best damn evolution book for kids ever, period, will now be blogging at Skepticblog.com — joining myself, Phil Plait, Steve Novella, and the other skeptics who enlighten us each week with their timely and cogent observations on all things skeptical.<span id="more-5126"></span></p>
<p>I came up with the idea for <em>Junior Skeptic</em> magazine in 1997, inspired by an episode of <a href="http://click.linksynergy.com/fs-bin/stat?id=NPWZsaxViDE&#038;offerid=146261&#038;type=3&#038;subid=0&#038;tmpid=1826&#038;RD_PARM1=http%253A%252F%252Fitunes.apple.com%252FWebObjects%252FMZStore.woa%252Fwa%252FviewTVSeason%253Fi%253D299758136%2526id%253D299364989%2526s%253D143441%2526uo%253D6%2526partnerId%253D30"><em>The Simpsons</em></a>. The episode was entitled “The Springfield Files” — a parody of <a href="http://click.linksynergy.com/fs-bin/stat?id=NPWZsaxViDE&#038;offerid=146261&#038;type=3&#038;subid=0&#038;tmpid=1826&#038;RD_PARM1=http%253A%252F%252Fitunes.apple.com%252FWebObjects%252FMZStore.woa%252Fwa%252FviewTVShow%253Fid%253D282946585%2526uo%253D6%2526partnerId%253D30"><em>X-Files</em></a> in which Homer has an alien encounter in the woods (after imbibing 10 bottles of Red Tick Beer) — and Leonard Nimoy voices the intro as he once did for his post-Spock run on the television mystery series <em>In Search of</em>…: “The following tale of alien encounters is true. And by true, I mean false. It’s all lies. But they’re entertaining lies, and in the end isn’t that the real truth? The answer is no.”</p>
<p>As the little skeptic of the show herself, Homer’s daughter Lisa quotes to him from “<em>Junior Skeptic</em> magazine,” which I think was inspired by <em>Skeptic</em> magazine itself since I’ve met Matt Groening and some of their writers are subscribers to <em>Skeptic</em>. Either way, though, I thought the timing was right to launch a new magazine, but since we could not afford to publish and distribute it as a separate magazine we decided to tip it into the back of every issue of Skeptic magazine, where it still resides today. The early issues were fun to do, but all of us struggled to find the right voice for <em>Junior Skeptic</em> magazine amidst our already too busy work schedule of just trying to get the regular magazine out in time. But then along came Daniel Loxton, who locked up the voice of <em>Junior Skeptic</em> magazine as his own.</p>
<p>Daniel is a clear and concise writer who really knows how to communicate any topic with clarity, wit, and detail to accuracy. Of the thousands of articles that I have edited over the decades, Daniel’s are among the best ever written and in need of the least amount of editing. There’s no attempt at fancy schmancy literary hocus pocus that you often find in academics who wannabe lit crit deconstructionists (what Dawkins calls “obscurantists”). Daniel cuts to the chase of a topic and weaves the facts into a compelling narrative story. You know, the kind that kids like to read…and adults: one of the most common letters we receive is from our adult readers almost (but not quite) too embarrassed to admit that they prefer reading <em>Junior&nbsp;Skeptic</em> magazine to <em>Skeptic</em> magazine.</p>
<p>So, starting next Tuesday, Daniel and I will alternate weeks posting here at Skepticblog, and I am going to start posting more regularly — probably two times a week — over at <a href="http://www.trueslant.com/">TRUE/SLANT</a>, a relatively new site that I find especially appealing at the scope and breadth of their topics and bloggers. This will give me a chance to reach new people and bring the skeptical message to new audiences. We can’t just preach to the choir, which I fear I do too much of, and even though I occasionally blog at HuffingtonPost, there I am lost in a sea of celebrities and television hosts (you know who I mean!) and over 2,000 other bloggers, which ends up feeling like a complete waste of time.</p>
<p>Thus, I would encourage everyone to check out TRUE/SLANT, where you will find me posting, starting today, at: <a href="http://trueslant.com/michaelshermer/">http://trueslant.com/michaelshermer/</a></p>
<p>And please say hi to Daniel and welcome him into the skeptical blogosphere, and if you have any suggestions on topics you’d like him to cover just drop your suggestions into the comments box that goes with this blog.</p>
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