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	<title>The Work of Michael Shermer &#187; environment</title>
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	<link>http://www.michaelshermer.com</link>
	<description>books, essays, columns, reviews, and multimedia clips of famed skeptic Michael Shermer</description>
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		<title>Contrasts and Craziness: Skeptics’ Geology Tour Ends at Creationist Museum</title>
		<link>http://skepticblog.org/2011/02/22/evolution-versus-creationism/</link>
		<comments>http://skepticblog.org/2011/02/22/evolution-versus-creationism/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 22 Feb 2011 10:00:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael Shermer</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[SkepticBlog]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[environment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Evolution/Creation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[science]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://skepticblog.org/?p=11974</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[click to enlarge Over the three-day weekend of January 15–17, the Skeptics Society sponsored a geology tour organized and hosted by the Occidental College and Caltech paleontologist and geologist Donald Prothero and his Whittier College professor wife Teresa LeVelle. Around 50 skeptics departed Pasadena on a bus bound for our first stop, the Mt. Palomar [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div style="float: right; width: 206px; margin: 0 0 10px 20px;"><a href="http://skepticblog.org/wp-content/uploads/Mt-Palomar.jpg" class="lightbox" rel="lightbox[1]"><img src="http://skepticblog.org/wp-content/uploads/Mt-Palomar-thumb.jpg" alt="Mt. Palomar telescope" title="Mt. Palomar telescope (click to enlarge)" width="200" height="300" class="size-full wp-image-11977" /></a>
<p class="caption">click to enlarge</p>
</div>
<p>Over the three-day weekend of January 15–17, the Skeptics Society sponsored <a href="http://www.skeptic.com/geology_tours/2011/SoCal-Kaleidoscope/">a geology tour</a> organized and hosted by the Occidental College and Caltech paleontologist and geologist Donald Prothero and his Whittier College professor wife Teresa LeVelle. Around 50 skeptics departed Pasadena on a bus bound for our first stop, the Mt. Palomar observatory, home of the famous 200-inch Hale telescope, once the largest in the world and from which numerous important observations about the universe were made, including the discovery of quasars. No less an astronomical giant than Edwin Hubble was given the honor of being the first astronomer to use the telescope. They don’t build ‘em like this any longer: big and beefy!</p>
<p>In this limited space I cannot republish Prothero’s 30-page geological guidebook. Suffice it to say that Prothero is a brilliant lecturer who in the course of days packed in a 14-week semester’s worth of geological science as we wended our way around Southern California with it’s countless faults, uplifts, basins, and ranges. I’ll let a few photographs do the talking here, but this is no substitute for<a href="http://www.skeptic.com/geology_tours/" title="signup for advance notification of our next geology tour"> joining us on a future trip</a> with Don Prothero, whom I call Protheropedia for his encyclopedic knowledge of seemingly everything under and including the sun. Join us, for example, on <a href="http://www.skeptic.com/geology_tours/2011/Alaska-Cruise/">our next big trip to see the glaciers of Alaska</a>.<span id="more-11974"></span></p>
<p>Our three main locations on this trip, represented in the photographs below, after visiting and getting an inside tour of the Mt. Palomar telescope, were the Anza-Borrego badlands and surrounding areas, the Salton Sea, and the Joshua Tree National Park. All were spectacular sites for science, some of the most dramatic scenery to be found anywhere on the planet.</p>
<p>Click any photo below to view the entire gallery in larger format, with captions.</p>
<div style="margin: 20px 0 0 0;">
<div style="float: left; width: 156px; margin: 0 30px 10px 0"><a href="http://skepticblog.org/wp-content/uploads/DaveCanyon.jpg" class="lightbox" rel="lightbox[geosites]" title="Skeptics Society photographer David Patton inspects a massive conglomerate in the Fish Creek Wash in the Anza-Borrego badlands we drove up to reach a deep narrow slot canyon that offered a dramatic stratigraphic sequence dating back millions of years. You can see the rocks and boulders cemented into the matrix of sand, compressed over millions of years."><img src="http://skepticblog.org/wp-content/uploads/DaveCanyon-thumb.jpg" alt="photo" width="150" height="200" class="size-full wp-image-11977" /></a></div>
<div style="float: left; width: 156px; margin: 0 30px 10px 0"><a href="http://skepticblog.org/wp-content/uploads/LayersCanyon.jpg" class="lightbox" rel="lightbox[geosites]" title="Pulling back from the conglomerate one can see an entire wall of compacted material in stratigraphic sequence from young (top) to old (bottom) as we drove up the slot canyon in the Fish Creek Wash in the Anza-Borrego badlands."><img src="http://skepticblog.org/wp-content/uploads/LayersCanyon-thumb.jpg" alt="photo" width="150" height="200" class="size-full wp-image-11977" /></a></div>
<div style="float: left; width: 156px; margin: 0 0 10px 0"><a href="http://skepticblog.org/wp-content/uploads/NonConformity.jpg" class="lightbox" rel="lightbox[geosites]" title="One of the most dramatic geological formations on our trip was this bending of rock as a result of high pressure pushing against what was once flat strata. Such formations show the power of time and pressure to shape solid rock as if it were liquid."><img src="http://skepticblog.org/wp-content/uploads/NonConformity-thumb.jpg" alt="photo" width="150" height="200" class="size-full wp-image-11977" /></a></div>
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<div style="float: left; width: 156px; margin: 0 30px 10px 0"><a href="http://skepticblog.org/wp-content/uploads/WindCaves.jpg" class="lightbox" rel="lightbox[geosites]" title="Our lunch break featured a one-mile hike to the wind caves of the Fish Creek Wash in the Anza-Borrego badlands, formed by erosion from wind and rain over immense time."><img src="http://skepticblog.org/wp-content/uploads/WindCaves-thumb.jpg" alt="photo" width="150" height="113" class="size-full wp-image-11977" /></a></div>
<div style="float: left; width: 156px; margin: 0 30px 10px 0"><a href="http://skepticblog.org/wp-content/uploads/WindCavesView.jpg" class="lightbox" rel="lightbox[geosites]" title="From the top of the Wind Caves once can see the Fish Creek Wash in the background. Even though was dry that day, periodic rains can produce massive flooding and debris flows that shape this canyon."><img src="http://skepticblog.org/wp-content/uploads/WindCavesView-thumb.jpg" alt="photo" width="150" height="113" class="size-full wp-image-11977" /></a></div>
<div style="float: left; width: 156px; margin: 0 0 10px 0"><a href="http://skepticblog.org/wp-content/uploads/ElephantFootprint.jpg" class="lightbox" rel="lightbox[geosites]" title="Once of the most remarkable fossil sites anywhere on the planet has to be this &#60;strong&#62;negative&#60;/strong&#62; fossil, footprints in mud from beneath the surface of the strata that was once the ground upon which a wooly mammoth once strode, following by two canine tracks (bone-eating dog) and the one on the far right just on the edge is a cat of a size between a cougar and a bobcat. It seems almost miraculous that these were preserved in the manner that they are, and that someone actually found them in this rock overhang. &#60;a href='http://www.borregospringschamber.com/abdsp/documents/remeika.htm'&#62;Read more about it&#60;/a&#62;."><img src="http://skepticblog.org/wp-content/uploads/ElephantFootprint-thumb.jpg" alt="photo" width="150" height="113" class="size-full wp-image-11977" /></a></div>
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<div style="float: left; width: 156px; margin: 0 30px 10px 0"><a href="http://skepticblog.org/wp-content/uploads/ClimbingJoshuaTree.jpg" class="lightbox" rel="lightbox[geosites]" title="Joshua Tree National Park is a climber&#8217;s haven and you can see why. These rock formations are surrounded by &#60;em&#62;Yucca brevifolia&#60;/em&#62;, commonly known as Joshua Trees (so named by Mormon pioneers who thought they resembled the biblical prophet Joshua raising his hands to the sky in prayer. The rocks show the characteristics of spheroidal weathering and jointing to form distinctive bouldery outcrops, popular among climbers because shoes grip so well to their weathered sand-papery surface. These rocks are part of the volcanic arc formed by subduction during the late Cretaceous, 94 million years ago, and subsequently cooled and were uplifted by geological forces beneath the surface."><img src="http://skepticblog.org/wp-content/uploads/ClimbingJoshuaTree-thumb.jpg" alt="photo" width="150" height="113" class="size-full wp-image-11977" /></a></div>
<div style="float: left; width: 156px; margin: 0 30px 10px 0"><a href="http://skepticblog.org/wp-content/uploads/JoshuaTreeTop.jpg" class="lightbox" rel="lightbox[geosites]" title="Joshua Tree National Park is a climber&#8217;s haven and you can see why. These rock formations are surrounded by &#60;em&#62;Yucca brevifolia&#60;/em&#62;, commonly known as Joshua Trees (so named by Mormon pioneers who thought they resembled the biblical prophet Joshua raising his hands to the sky in prayer. The rocks show the characteristics of spheroidal weathering and jointing to form distinctive bouldery outcrops, popular among climbers because shoes grip so well to their weathered sand-papery surface. These rocks are part of the volcanic arc formed by subduction during the late Cretaceous, 94 million years ago, and subsequently cooled and were uplifted by geological forces beneath the surface."><img src="http://skepticblog.org/wp-content/uploads/JoshuaTreeTop-thumb.jpg" alt="photo" width="150" height="200" class="size-full wp-image-11977" /></a></div>
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<div style="float: left; width: 156px; margin: 0 30px 10px 0"><a href="http://skepticblog.org/wp-content/uploads/SaltonSea.jpg" class="lightbox" rel="lightbox[geosites]" title="The Salton Sea was created in 1905 when heavy rainfall and snowmelt caused the Colorado River to swell, overrunning a set of headgates for the Alamo Canal. The resulting flood poured down the canal and breached the Imperial Valley dike. Over a period of about two years the waters poured into the Salton Sink, an area below sea-level that the waters naturally sank to, with minerals pouring in from the surrounding mountains making this one of the most mineral rich bodies of water in the world."><img src="http://skepticblog.org/wp-content/uploads/SaltonSea-thumb.jpg" alt="photo" width="150" height="113" class="size-full wp-image-11977" /></a></div>
<div style="float: left; width: 156px; margin: 0 30px 10px 0"><a href="http://skepticblog.org/wp-content/uploads/FishDieOff.jpg" class="lightbox" rel="lightbox[geosites]" title="The fish who live in the Salton Sea are so temperature sensitive that a cold snap a few weeks before our arrival results in a mass fish die off as seen in the photograph. As far as we know this is not a result of secret government experiments that were also claimed to have generated mass die offs of birds around the country around the same time."><img src="http://skepticblog.org/wp-content/uploads/FishDieOff-thumb.jpg" alt="photo" width="150" height="200" class="size-full wp-image-11977" /></a></div>
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<p>With considerable irony we ended the trip with a final stop along Interstate 10 west of Palm Springs (near Cabazon and the cluster of factory outlet stores just off the freeway), where you can’t miss the two giant dinosaurs—a T-Rex and a Brontosaurus (now Apatosaurus)—originally built in the 1960s by Knott’s Berry Farm sculptor and portrait artist Claude K. Bell  (1897–1988) to attract customers to his Wheel Inn Café. They have been a California driving fixture ever since, and few people (including me!) realized that after Bell died his estate sold the property to an Orange County creationist who converted the site into a Young Earth Creationism park, teaching children that the entire world was created in six days around 6,000 years ago, around the same time that the Egyptians invented wine. The pictures below speak for themselves. </p>
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<div style="float: left; width: 156px; margin: 0 30px 10px 0"><a href="http://skepticblog.org/wp-content/uploads/Brontosaurus.jpg" class="lightbox" rel="lightbox[creationpark]"><img src="http://skepticblog.org/wp-content/uploads/Brontosaurus-thumb.jpg" alt="photo" width="150" height="113" class="size-full wp-image-11977" /></a></div>
<div style="float: left; width: 156px; margin: 0 30px 10px 0"><a href="http://skepticblog.org/wp-content/uploads/LiveFossil.jpg" class="lightbox" rel="lightbox[creationpark]"><img src="http://skepticblog.org/wp-content/uploads/LiveFossil-thumb.jpg" alt="photo" width="150" height="113" class="size-full wp-image-11977" /></a></div>
<div style="float: left; width: 156px; margin: 0 30px 10px 0"><a href="http://skepticblog.org/wp-content/uploads/PrimordialSoup.jpg" class="lightbox" rel="lightbox[creationpark]"><img src="http://skepticblog.org/wp-content/uploads/PrimordialSoup-thumb.jpg" alt="photo" width="150" height="113" class="size-full wp-image-11977" /></a></div>
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<div style="float: left; width: 156px; margin: 0 30px 10px 0"><a href="http://skepticblog.org/wp-content/uploads/TRex.jpg" class="lightbox" rel="lightbox[creationpark]"><img src="http://skepticblog.org/wp-content/uploads/TRex-thumb.jpg" alt="photo" width="150" height="200" class="size-full wp-image-11977" /></a></div>
<div style="float: left; width: 156px; margin: 0 30px 10px 0"><a href="http://skepticblog.org/wp-content/uploads/EvolutionCreation.jpg" class="lightbox" rel="lightbox[creationpark]"><img src="http://skepticblog.org/wp-content/uploads/EvolutionCreation-thumb.jpg" alt="photo" width="150" height="200" class="size-full wp-image-11977" /></a></div>
<div style="float: left; width: 156px; margin: 0 30px 10px 0"><a href="http://skepticblog.org/wp-content/uploads/DinosChance.jpg" class="lightbox" rel="lightbox[creationpark]"><img src="http://skepticblog.org/wp-content/uploads/DinosChance-thumb.jpg" alt="photo" width="150" height="200" class="size-full wp-image-11977" /></a></div>
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<div style="float: left; width: 156px; margin: 0 30px 10px 0"><a href="http://skepticblog.org/wp-content/uploads/DesignChance.jpg" class="lightbox" rel="lightbox[creationpark]"><img src="http://skepticblog.org/wp-content/uploads/DesignChance-thumb.jpg" alt="photo" width="150" height="200" class="size-full wp-image-11977" /></a></div>
<div style="float: left; width: 156px; margin: 0 30px 10px 0"><a href="http://skepticblog.org/wp-content/uploads/CreationismSign.jpg" class="lightbox" rel="lightbox[creationpark]"><img src="http://skepticblog.org/wp-content/uploads/CreationismSign-thumb.jpg" alt="photo" width="150" height="113" class="size-full wp-image-11977" /></a></div>
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		<title>Throwing Cold Water on a Hot Topic</title>
		<link>http://skepticblog.org/2010/11/16/throwing-cold-water-on-a-hot-topic/</link>
		<comments>http://skepticblog.org/2010/11/16/throwing-cold-water-on-a-hot-topic/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Nov 2010 10:00:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael Shermer</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[SkepticBlog]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[climate change]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[environment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[global climate change]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[science]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[skepticism]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://skepticblog.org/?p=10927</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This post is a review of Cool It, a film by Bjorn Lomborg, directed by Ondi Timoner, produced by Roadside Attractions and 1019 Entertainment. Written by Terry Botwick, Sarah Gibson, and Bjorn Lomborg. Based on the book by Bjorn Lomborg. 88 minutes. I FIRST MET BJORN LOMBORG IN 2001 upon the publication of his Cambridge [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p class="note">This post is a review of <em>Cool It</em>, a film by Bjorn Lomborg, directed by Ondi Timoner, produced by Roadside Attractions and 1019 Entertainment. Written by Terry Botwick, Sarah Gibson, and Bjorn Lomborg. Based on the book by Bjorn Lomborg. 88 minutes.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.coolit-themovie.com/videos"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-10932" title="WATCH the trailer" src="http://skepticblog.org/wp-content/uploads/cool-it-banner.jpg" alt="COOL IT (movie poster)" width="560" height="371" /></a></p>
<p>I FIRST MET BJORN LOMBORG IN 2001 upon the publication of his Cambridge University Press book, <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0521010683?ie=UTF8&amp;tag=skepticcom-20&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0521010683"><em>The Skeptical Environmentalist</em></a>, which I found to be a refreshing perspective on what had been the doom-and-gloom, end-of-the-world scenarios that I had been hearing since I was an undergraduate in the early 1970s. Back then we were told that overpopulation would lead to worldwide hunger and starvation, that there would be massive oil depletion, precious mineral exhaustion, and rainforest extinction by the 1990s. These predictions failed utterly. I felt I had been lied to for decades by the environmentalist movement that seemed to me to be little more than a political movement that raised money by raising fears.<span id="more-10927"></span></p>
<p>Lomborg’s publicist thought that I might be interested in hosting him for the <a href="http://www.skeptic.com/lectures/">Skeptics Society’s public science lecture series</a> at the California Institute of Technology that I organize and host. I was, but given the highly debatable nature of many of Lomborg’s claims I only agreed to host him if it could be a debate. Lomborg agreed at once to debate anyone, and this is where the trouble began. I could not find anyone to debate Lomborg. I contacted all of the top environmental organizations, and to a one they all refused to participate. “There is no debate,” one told me. “We don’t want to dignify that book,” said another. I even called Paul Ehrlich, the author of the wildly popular bestselling book <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B000EI3XOS?ie=UTF8&amp;tag=skepticcom-20&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=B000EI3XOS"><em>The Population Bomb</em></a> — another apocalyptic prognostication that served as something of a catalyst in the 1970s for delimiting population growth — but he turned me down flat, warning me in no uncertain language that my reputation within the scientific community would be irreparably harmed if I went through with it. So of course I did because (A) truth is more important than reputation, and (B) no one threatens me and gets away with it. My own Senior Editor, Frank Miele, who is an expert on evolutionary biology and biodiversity (and is one of the fastest and most facile researchers I’ve ever known), challenged Lomborg on several of the chapters in his book, and we had a lively and successful debate.</p>
<p>My experience is symptomatic of deep problems that have long plagued the environmental movement, and for a time the political pollution of the science turned me into an environmental skeptic. That alone would be meaningless, given that I have only ever written one article on the subject (my June 2006 <a href="http://www.michaelshermer.com/2006/06/the-flipping-point/"><em>Scientific American</em> column</a> explaining that I flipped from climate skeptic to believer), but I believe that the environmental extremists had a similar effect on millions of others who remain skeptical in the teeth of what now appears to be reasonably solid evidence for anthropogenic global warming.</p>
<p>In fact, the documentary film <em>Cool It</em>, based on <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/030738652X?ie=UTF8&amp;tag=skepticcom-20&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=030738652X">Lomborg’s book of the same title</a> that serves as the popular version of his more technical and scholarly first tome, opens with him stating unequivocally that global warming is real and human caused. Wait! I thought Lomborg was a climate denier? That is what his critics have accused him of being, in fact, which apparently is the charge delivered if one does not accept in full all the claims in <em>Cool It</em>’s erstwhile anti-avatar, Al Gore’s film <em>An Inconvenient Truth</em>. Here it might be useful to distinguish the two films by breaking down the subject matter into five questions:</p>
<ol>
<li>Is the earth getting warmer?</li>
<li>Is the cause of global warming human activity?</li>
<li>How much warmer is it going to get?</li>
<li>What are the consequences of a warmer climate?</li>
<li>How much should we invest in altering the climate?</li>
</ol>
<table style="width: 560px; border: 1px solid #888;">
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th>Al Gore’s answers</th>
<th>Bjorn Lomborg’s answers in <em>Cool It</em></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<th>1</th>
<td> Yes </td>
<td> Yes </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th>2</th>
<td> Yes </td>
<td> Yes </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th>3</th>
<td> A lot </td>
<td> Probably a little, very unlikely a lot </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th>4</th>
<td> Cataclysmic.</td>
<td> Debatable depending on how much warmer it will get, but very likely the consequences will be minor </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th>5</th>
<td> Trillions of dollars, mostly top-down government programs to curtail oil and coal use and reduce greenhouse gases </td>
<td> Billions </td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Global warming is real and primarily human caused. With questions 3 and 4, however, estimates include error bars that grow wider the further out we run the models because complex systems like climate are notoriously difficult to predict. Lomborg (and myself) provisionally accept the estimate of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that the mean global temperature by 2100 will increase by around 4–5 degrees Fahrenheit, and that sea levels will rise by about one foot, which Lomborg reminds us is about the same level that sea levels have risen since 1860, without any major (or for that matter minor) consequences. In other words, man-made global warming will be moderate, causing moderate changes.</p>
<p>Examining question 4 more closely, Lomborg computes that if global warming continues unchecked through the end of the century there will be 400,000 more heat-related deaths annually, but he then notes that there will be also be 1.8 million fewer cold-related deaths, for a net gain of 1.4 million lives. This is a typical calculation that Lomborg makes in what is essentially an economic triage for global warming — he is not saying that global warming is good or inconsequential, only that its consequences must be weighed in the balance against other problems. For example, Lomborg sites data from the World Wildlife Fund that at most we will lose 15 polar bears a year due to global warming, but what doesn’t get reported is that 49 bears are shot each year. What would be more cost-effective to save polar bear lives — spend hundreds of billions of dollars to lower CO<sub>2</sub> emissions and (maybe) lower the mean global temperature by a fraction of a degree, or limit hunting permits?</p>
<p>This leads to question 5 — the economics of global climate change — which Lomborg notes that if all countries had ratified the Kyoto Protocol and lived up to its standards (which most did not), according to the IPCC at best it would have postponed the 4.7°F average increase just five years from 2100 to 2105, at a cost of $180 billion a year! By comparison, although global warming may cause an increase of two million deaths due to hunger annually by 2100, the U.N. estimates that for $10 billion a year we could save 229 million people from hunger annually today.</p>
<p>Economics is about the efficient allocation of limited resources that have alternative uses. If you had, say, $50 billion a year to make the world a better place for more people, how would you spend it? <em>Cool It</em> traces Lomborg’s attempt to answer this question through a group of scientists, economists, and world leaders whom he gathered in 2004 in Copenhagen to reach what he calls the “Copenhagen Consensus.” These experts ranked reduction of CO<sub>2</sub> emissions 16th out of 17 challenges. The top four were: controlling HIV/AIDS, micronutrients for fighting malnutrition, free trade to attenuate poverty, and battling malaria. A 2006 Copenhagen Consensus of U.N. ambassadors constructed a similar list, with communicable diseases, clean drinking water, and malnutrition at the top, and climate change at the bottom. A late 2008 meeting that included five Nobel Laureates recommended that President-elect Barack Obama allocate his promised $150 billion in subsidies for new technologies and $50 billion in foreign aid be allocated for research on malnutrition, immunization, and agricultural technologies. For a cool Kyoto $180 billion you can buy a lot of condoms, vitamin tablets, and mosquito nets and rescue hundreds of millions of people from disease, starvation, and impoverishment.</p>
<p><em>Cool It</em> is an uplifting film, filled with solutions that any green technophile would love: solar, wind, wave, and geoengineering technologies take up a lion’s share of the film. (And true climate skeptics will denounce Lomborg on this front as they do not believe that these alternatives can come close to replacing coal and oil as sources of energy.) To his credit, the unflappable Lomborg, with his boyish good looks and curiosity, includes in his own film harsh disparaging commentary by his long-time critic Stephen Schneider, the Stanford University climate scientist who passed away this past July. In a very classy touch, <em>Cool It</em> is dedicated to Schneider.</p>
<p>*			*			*</p>
<p class="note">Note: If you are skeptical of Lomborg and his branch of environmental skepticism, read the Yale University economist William Nordhaus’ technical book <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0300137486?ie=UTF8&amp;tag=skepticcom-20&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0300137486"><em>A Question of Balance</em></a> (Yale University Press, 2008). Nordhaus computes the costs-benefits of various recommendations for changing the climate by either 2105 or 2205, primarily focused on the cost of curbing carbon emissions. Economists like to compute future profits and losses based on investments made today, adjusting for the value of a future dollar at an average interest rate of four percent. If we spent a trillion dollars today (the equivalent of the recent bailout or the Iraq war), how much climate change would it buy us in a century at four percent interest? Nordhaus’s calculations are compared to doing nothing, where a plus value is better and a minus value worse than doing nothing. Kyoto with the U.S. is plus one and without the U.S. zero, for example, and a gradually increasing global carbon tax is a plus three. That is, a $1 trillion cost today buys us $3 trillion of benefits in a century. Al Gore’s proposals, by contrast, score a minus 21, where $1 trillion invested today in Gore’s plans would net us a loss of $21 trillion in 2105. Add to these calculations the numerous other crises we face, such as the housing calamity, the financial meltdown, the coming pressures of funding Social Security and Medicare, not to mention financing two wars, a failing public education system, and so forth, and suddenly global climate change is put into perspective.</p>
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		<title>Confessions of a Former Environmental Skeptic</title>
		<link>http://www.michaelshermer.com/2008/04/confessions-of-a-former-environmental-skeptic/</link>
		<comments>http://www.michaelshermer.com/2008/04/confessions-of-a-former-environmental-skeptic/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 Apr 2008 19:00:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael Shermer</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[essays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[environment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[global warming]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[pseudoscience]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[science]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://michaelshermer.com/writing/2007/07/25/confessions-of-a-former-environmental-skeptic/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In his 1964 Republican presidential nomination acceptance speech Barry Goldwater gave voice to one of the most memorable one-liners in political punditry: “Extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice. Moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue.” These are stirring sentiments, to be sure, and once in a great while they may [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span class="smallcaps">In his 1964 Republican presidential nomination</span> acceptance speech Barry Goldwater gave voice to one of the most memorable one-liners in political punditry: “Extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice. Moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue.”</p>
<p>These are stirring sentiments, to be sure, and once in a great while they may even be true. But for most human endeavors, moderation is a virtue and extremism is a vice.  The reason is clear: all extremists think they are defending liberty and pursuing justice, from Timothy McVeigh and the 9/11 terrorists to Torquemada and abortion clinic bombers. One country’s terrorist is another country’s freedom fighter.</p>
<p>Extreme environmentalists are a case in point. Members of environmentalist groups who vandalize Hummer dealerships, destroy logging equipment, or torch scientific laboratories see themselves not as the terrorists that they are, but as environmental freedom fighters. And environmental groups who paint doom and gloom scenarios and exaggerate, distort, or even fabricate claims in order to keep the donations flowing only hurt their cause in the long run when doomsday comes and goes without incident or the claims turn out to be baseless.<span id="more-109"></span></p>
<p>As an undergraduate in the early 1970s, we were told that overpopulation would lead to worldwide hunger and starvation, oil depletion, precious mineral exhaustion, and rainforest extinction by the 1990s, predictions that have all failed utterly. Scientists like Bjorn Lomborg in <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0521010683?ie=UTF8&#038;tag=skepticcom-20&#038;linkCode=as2&#038;camp=1789&#038;creative=390957&#038;creativeASIN=0521010683" rel="nofollow"><em>The Skeptical Environmentalist</em></a> have, in my opinion, properly nailed environmental extremists for these exaggerated scenarios. And his book is where I entered the debate.</p>
<p>In 2001, Cambridge University Press published Lomborg’s book which, given the similarity between its title (<em>The Skeptical Environmentalist</em>) and that of the magazine that I publish (<a href="http://www.skeptic.com/the_magazine"><em>Skeptic</em></a>), his publicist thought it would be a perfect topic for the Skeptics Society’s public science lecture series at the California Institute of Technology, which I host. Given the highly debatable nature of many of Lomborg’s claims, however, I only agreed to host him if it could be a debate. Lomborg agreed at once to debate anyone, and this is where the trouble began — I could not find anyone to debate Lomborg. I contacted all of the top environmental organizations, and to a one they all refused to participate. “There is no debate,” one told me. “We don’t want to dignify that book,” said another. One leading environmentalist warned me that my reputation would be irreparably harmed if I went through with it. So of course I did. My own Senior Editor, Frank Miele, who is an expert on evolutionary biology and biodiversity (and is one of the fastest and most facile researchers I’ve ever known), challenged Lomborg on several of the chapters in his book, and we had a lively and successful debate.</p>
<p>My experience is symptomatic of deep problems that have long plagued the environmental movement, and for a time the political pollution of the science turned me into an environmental skeptic. That alone would be meaningless, given that I have only ever written one article on the subject, but I believe that the extremists had a similar effect on millions of others who remain skeptical in the teeth of what I now believe to be overwhelming evidence for anthropogenic global warming. The tragedy of this inappropriate conflation of politics and science is that world-class scientists and science communicators like David Suzuki have been warning us about this problem for decades, and doing so in a systematic and reasonable manner that so many of us failed to hear because of the extremists’ claims.</p>
<p>What turned me around on the global warming issue was a convergence of evidence from numerous sources. My attention was piqued on February 8, 2006, when 86 leading evangelical Christians — the last cohort I expected to get on the environmental bandwagon — issued the Evangelical Climate Initiative calling for “national legislation requiring economy-wide reductions” in carbon emissions. After attending a 2002 Oxford conference on the science of global warming, the chief lobbyist for the National Association of Evangelicals, the Reverend Richard Cizik, described his experience as “a conversion … not unlike my conversion to Christ.”</p>
<p>Later that month I attended the TED (Technology, Entertainment, Design) conference in Monterey, California, where former Vice President Al Gore delivered the single finest summation of the evidence for global warming I have ever heard, based on the 2006 documentary film about his work in this area, <a href="http://click.linksynergy.com/fs-bin/stat?id=NPWZsaxViDE&#038;offerid=146261&#038;type=3&#038;subid=0&#038;tmpid=1826&#038;RD_PARM1=http%253A%252F%252Fitunes.apple.com%252FWebObjects%252FMZStore.woa%252Fwa%252FviewMovie%253Fid%253D267946259%2526s%253D143441%2526uo%253D6%2526partnerId%253D30" rel="nofollow"><em>An Inconvenient Truth</em></a>. Because we are primates with such visually dominant sensory systems, we need to see the evidence to believe it, and the striking visuals of countless graphs and charts, and especially the before-and-after photographs showing the disappearance of glaciers around the world, shocked me viscerally and knocked me out my skepticism.</p>
<p>Four recent books on the subject then took me to the flipping point. Archaeologist Brian Fagan’s <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0465022820?ie=UTF8&#038;tag=skepticcom-20&#038;linkCode=as2&#038;camp=1789&#038;creative=390957&#038;creativeASIN=0465022820" rel="nofollow"><em>The Long Summer</em></a> (Basic, 2004) documents how civilization is the gift of a temporary period of mild climate. Geographer Jared Diamond’s <a href="http://www.skeptic.com/productlink/b088PB"><em>Collapse</em></a> (Viking, 2005) demonstrates how natural and human-caused environmental catastrophes led to the collapse of civilizations. Journalist Elizabeth Kolbert’s <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1596911301?ie=UTF8&#038;tag=skepticcom-20&#038;linkCode=as2&#038;camp=1789&#038;creative=390957&#038;creativeASIN=1596911301" rel="nofollow"><em>Field Notes From a Catastrophe</em></a> (Simon and Schuster, 2006) is a page-turning account of her journeys around the world with environmental scientists who are documenting species extinction and climate change that are unmistakably linked to human action. And biologist Tim Flannery’s <a href="http://www.skeptic.com/productlink/b117PB"><em>The Weather Makers</em></a> (Atlantic Monthly Press, 2006) reveals how he went from being a skeptical environmentalist to a believing activist as incontrovertible data linking the increase of carbon dioxide, CO<sub>2</sub>, to global warming accumulated the last decade.</p>
<p>It is a matter of CO<sub>2</sub> Goldilocks. In the last ice age CO<sub>2</sub> levels were 180 parts per million (ppm) — too cold. Between the Agricultural Revolution and the Industrial Revolution CO<sub>2</sub> levels rose to 280 ppm — just right. Today CO<sub>2</sub> levels are at 380 ppm and are projected to reach 450 to 550 ppm by the end of the century — too warm. Like a kettle of water that transforms from liquid to steam when it changes from 211 to 212 degrees F, the environment itself is about to make a CO<sub>2</sub>–driven flip.</p>
<p>According to Flannery, even if we reduce our CO<sub>2</sub> emissions by 70 percent by 2050 average global temperatures will increase between 2 to 9 degrees C by 2100. This rise could lead to the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which the March 24 issue of <em>Science</em> reports is already shrinking at a rate of 224 ±41 cubic kilometers per year, double the rate measured in 1996 (Los Angeles uses 1 cubic kilometer of water per year). If it and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet melt, sea levels will rise 5 to 10 meters, displacing half a billion inhabitants of coastal communities.</p>
<p>I mentioned above that I have only ever published <a href="http://www.michaelshermer.com/2006/06/the-flipping-point/">one article about the environment</a>, and that was recounting my conversion from global warming skeptic to believer in my monthly column in <em>Scientific American</em>. In that column I closed with this sentence: “Because of the complexity of the problem environmental skepticism was once tenable. No longer. It is time to flip from skepticism to activism.”</p>
<p>What I meant by that final clause is that it is time to do something about the problem. I did not specify what we should do, but in my opinion we have time to fix the problem without drastic and draconian governmental intervention. For example, I believe that if we start the transition now, we can make the shift from burning fossil fuels to alternative fuels through normal market channels. The market for hybrid automobiles, for example, will continue growing at a breakneck pace such that within two decades the vast majority of cars will be hybrids and the transition to purely electric cars (or cars that run on some other combination of electricity and a cleaner alternative fuel), will be successful. In other words, I would much prefer to see governments establishing pollution standards and carbon dioxide levels that the marketplace is then free to work around in its usually efficient manner (more efficient, in any case, than most government programs are capable of achieving).</p>
<p>In response to my <em>Scientific American</em> column, I received thousands of letters and emails. A few were surprised that it took me so long to come around. For example:</p>
<blockquote><p>Michael Shermer announces that “it is time to flip from skepticism to activism” with respect to anthropogenic global warming. Well, gosh, Shermer, welcome to the party. Where the heck have you been? No offense, but most of your readers realized it was “time to flip” years ago. Maybe the shocked and horrified response (“there is no debate”) that you got when trying to promote skepticism about global warming was not, as you assume, “symptomatic of deep problems that have long plagued the environmental movement,” but was, rather, indicative of how far off the rails of rationality you had gone. After all, as you observe, even the evangelical Christians abandoned the skeptical position before you did! It might be worthwhile to devote a little time and introspection to exactly why you stuck to a dangerously irrational point of view for so long; because the sand you buried your head in is exactly the same sand that we need to get the average American’s head out of. If it took four books and a lecture by Al Gore to change your mind, I despair that we will ever change the minds of the people who really matter: the voters.</p>
<p class="quoteauthor">— Ben Haller, Menlo Park, CA</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Indeed, my correspondent is right, the vast majority of letters that I received were skeptical of my loss of skepticism. That is, in spite of what I now see as overwhelming evidence for anthropogenic global warming, there are still plenty of skeptics out there, and I believe that they are primarily motivated for the same reason that I was — they got burned by environmental extremists. Here is a small sampling.</p>
<blockquote><p>Michael Shermer sure has ‘flipped’! He quotes Flannery as saying that “even if we reduce our carbon dioxide emissions by 70% by 2050, average global temperatures will increase between two and nine degrees by 2050.” Could it be that global warming is caused, in the main, by forces beyond our control?</p>
<p class="quoteauthor">— Robert Schnepp, Port Hueneme, CA</p>
</blockquote>
<blockquote><p>I was disappointed to see that Mr. Shermer has surrendered his skepticism on anthropogenic global warming in the June 2006 issue of “Scientific American.” His “flipping point” seems to be the demonstrated reduction in some of the world’s glaciers. I suggest he enroll in a freshman course in historical geology. There he will learn that glaciers have come and gone many times in the recent history of the earth (geologically speaking). The most recent episodes of glaciation are referred to as the Pleistocene era. I think his change of heart will turn out to be as wrong as his stated belief in the 1970s that starvation and depletion of resources would plague the earth by the 1990s.</p>
<p class="quoteauthor">—Howard Sahl, Longmont, CO</a></p></blockquote>
<blockquote><p>Very appropriate Michael. I have always looked somewhat askance at <em>Scientific American</em>’s views on environmental matters. Shame on you for following their editorial dictates. I will never again read my <em>Skeptic</em> magazine (I am a subscriber) in the same open minded way that I have previously. You have joined the philistines. The blunt, highlighted in red, comment: “Reducing our CO<sub>2</sub> emissions by 70% by 2050 will not be enough.” shows a ‘grab’ at a statement that would put even the most rabid environmental group to shame. Prove it!</p>
<p class="quoteauthor">—Ivor Davies, Oakville, Ontario, Canada</a></p></blockquote>
<blockquote><p>Before you jump on the idiotic bandwagon and irreparably destroy your reputation, you ought to talk to John Brignell of www.numberwatch.co.uk and Michael Fumento of www.fumento.com and most importantly Steve Milloy at www.junkscience.com. Keep in mind:</p>
<ol>
<li>Climate changes no matter what we do.</li>
<li>The single greatest heat source is … <em>THE SUN</em>, variations in its output will cause variations in our temperature.</li>
<li>The trouble with people presenting evidence is that they like to present the stuff the supports their premise, but ignore all the rest. You can show 50 glaciers that are receding and ignore the 50 that are growing. You can show the ice shelf breaking off but ignore the fact that it is getting colder in antarctica.</li>
</ol>
<p>The greatest danger we face on this planet is the Eco Freaks. The climate will change no matter what we do. If the Freaks have their way, we will not be able to combat it, because we will have squandered resources trying to stop a hurricane instead of getting out of the way. I like your work, but you are scaring me now.</p>
<p class="quoteauthor">—Brad Tittle, Senior Systems Analyst, Trainnow.net</a></p></blockquote>
<blockquote><p>I too, am a skeptic. I am particularly skeptical of conventional wisdom that reeks of left wing politics and uses none other than Al Gore as a reference. Look up Malthusian economic theory so that you understand what it means when I accuse you of having a Malthusian mind. Several months ago there was an excellent greenhouse gas article printed in your publication using thousands of years of ice core data as its basis. This data showed quite convincingly that the glacial cycles, most probably brought on by the precession of the earth in its orbit around the sun, are accompanied by increases and decreases in greenhouse gases. It also showed that the most recent interglacial warm period should have begun to cool off and green house gases should have begun declining about 6000 years ago. They have not. They have, instead, increased. The scientist who did this study pointed out that about the only possible variable to explain this change in these cycles would be the rapid expansion of human population accompanied by farming, irrigation and raising of domestic live stock. Greenhouse gases have been going up when they should have been going down for 6000 years. There were no SUV’s back then. The answer to the dilemma you fear was also in the data from that article. The two largest plagues of the last two thousand years actually showed up in the ice core data as reductions in greenhouse gases. You want a 70% reduction in greenhouse gases you’d better plan a plague, a big one. The fact is that if anything can be proven as cause and effect, the only thing one might be able to say with some certainty is that the mere existence and growth of the human population has delayed a glaciation, which the aforementioned data indicated should have begun about 2000 years ago. Probably this is a GOOD thing!<br />
<P class="quoteauthor">—Jim Gampetro, Buffalo, WY</a></p></blockquote>
<blockquote><p>It seems the primary reason for the Skeptic’s “flipping” is the change in carbon dioxide levels from 180ppm (ice age), 280ppm (industrial revolution), 380ppm (today), and then the projections. So what about the previous 4.5 million years? What were carbon dioxide levels BEFORE the last ice age? The time frame for which we have data is so small compared to the history of the earth (which has endured numerous hot and cold periods), that forecasts based on that data are unscientific. Kinda like calling an elephant long and skinny based on a feel of it’s tail. I’m not ready to “flip” yet.</p>
<p class="quoteauthor">—John Guimont</a></p></blockquote>
<p>I well remember watching television programs about the environment hosted by David Suzuki. They were visually stunning and brilliantly presented. But my mind had already been hardened by the failed predictions of the extremists, and so I watched and listened, but I did not see or hear. But you were right, David, and for many decades of tireless work on behalf of this pale blue dot and its inhabitants, we all owe you a debt of gratitude.</p>
<p class="footnote">This article was first published in an edited volume as a Festschrift<br />
for David Suzuki by Greystone Books, Canada.</p>
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		<title>The Flipping Point</title>
		<link>http://www.michaelshermer.com/2006/06/the-flipping-point/</link>
		<comments>http://www.michaelshermer.com/2006/06/the-flipping-point/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Jun 2006 16:20:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael Shermer</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Scientific American]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[climate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[environment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[global climate change]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[global warming]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://michaelshermer.com/writing/2007/07/19/the-flipping-point/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[How the evidence for anthropogenic global warming has converged to cause this environmental skeptic to make a cognitive flip In 2001 Cambridge University Press published Bjorn Lomborg’s book The Skeptical Environmentalist, which I thought was a perfect debate topic for the Skeptics Society public lecture series at the California Institute of Technology. The problem was [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h5>How the evidence for anthropogenic global warming has converged to cause this environmental skeptic to make a cognitive flip</h5>
<div class="sciamfloatright_largecover"><img src="http://michaelshermer.com/writing/wp-content/uploads/cover_2006-06.jpg" alt="magazine cover" width="217" height="287" class="cover" /></div>
<p><span class="smallcaps">In 2001 Cambridge University Press</span> published Bjorn Lomborg’s book <em>The Skeptical Environmentalist</em>, which I thought was a perfect debate topic for the Skeptics Society public lecture series at the California Institute of Technology. The problem was that all the top environmental organizations refused to participate. “There is no debate,” one spokesperson told me. “We don’t want to dignify that book,” another said. One leading environmentalist warned me that my reputation would be irreparably harmed if I went through with it. So of course I did.</p>
<p>My experience is symptomatic of deep problems that have long plagued the environmental movement. Activists who vandalize Hummer dealerships and destroy logging equipment are criminal ecoterrorists. Environmental groups who cry doom and gloom to keep donations flowing only hurt their credibility. As an undergraduate in the 1970s, I learned (and believed) that by the 1990s overpopulation would lead to worldwide starvation and the exhaustion of key minerals, metals and oil, predictions that failed utterly. Politics polluted the science and made me an environmental skeptic.<span id="more-72"></span></p>
<p>Nevertheless, data trump politics, and a convergence of evidence from numerous sources has led me to make a cognitive switch on the subject of anthropogenic global warming. My attention was piqued on February 8 when 86 leading evangelical Christians — the last cohort I expected to get on the environmental bandwagon — issued the Evangelical Climate Initiative calling for “national legislation requiring sufficient economy-wide reductions” in carbon emissions.</p>
<p>Then I attended the TED (Technology, Entertainment, Design) conference in Monterey, Calif., where former vice president Al Gore delivered the single finest summation of the evidence for global warming I have ever heard, based on the recent documentary film about his work in this area,<em> An Inconvenient Truth</em>. The striking before-and-after photographs showing the disappearance of glaciers around the world shocked me out of my doubting stance. Four books eventually brought me to the flipping point.</p>
<p>Archaeologist Brian Fagan’s <em>The Long Summer</em> (Basic, 2004) explicates how civilization is the gift of a temporary period of mild climate. Geographer Jared Diamond’s <a href="http://www.skeptic.com/productlink/b088PB" title="ORDER the book from skeptic.com"><em>Collapse</em></a> (Penguin Group, 2005) demonstrates how natural and human-caused environmental catastrophes led to the collapse of civilizations. Journalist Elizabeth Kolbert’s <em>Field Notes from a Catastrophe</em> (Bloomsbury Publishing, 2006) is a page-turning account of her journeys around the world with environmental scientists who are documenting species extinction and climate change unmistakably linked to human action. And biologist Tim Flannery’s <a href="http://www.skeptic.com/productlink/b117PB" title="ORDER the book from skeptic.com"><em>The Weather Makers</em></a> (Atlantic Monthly Press, 2006) reveals how he went from being a skeptical environmentalist to a believing activist as incontrovertible data linking the increase of carbon dioxide to global warming accumulated in the past decade.</p>
<p>It is a matter of the Goldilocks phenomenon. In the last ice age, CO<sub>2</sub> levels were 180 parts per million (ppm) — too cold. Between the agricultural revolution and the industrial revolution, levels rose to 280 ppm — just right. Today levels are at 380 ppm and are projected to reach 450 to 550 by the end of the century — too warm. Like a kettle of water that transforms from liquid to steam when it changes from 99 to 100 degrees Celsius, the environment itself is about to make a CO<sub>2</sub>–driven flip.</p>
<p>According to Flannery, even if we reduce our carbon dioxide emissions by 70 percent by 2050, average global temperatures will increase between two and nine degrees by 2100. This rise could lead to the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which the March 24 issue of <em>Science</em> reports is already shrinking at a rate of 224 ±41 cubic kilometers a year, double the rate measured in 1996 (Los Angeles uses one cubic kilometer of water a year). If it and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet melt, sea levels will rise five to 10 meters, displacing half a billion inhabitants.</p>
<p>Because of the complexity of the problem, environmental skepticism was once tenable. No longer. It is time to flip from skepticism to activism.</p>
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