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	<title>The Work of Michael Shermer &#187; markets</title>
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	<link>http://www.michaelshermer.com</link>
	<description>books, essays, columns, reviews, and multimedia clips of famed skeptic Michael Shermer</description>
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		<title>What I Believe (about Markets and Morals)</title>
		<link>http://skepticblog.org/2010/09/07/what-i-believe-about-markets-and-morals/</link>
		<comments>http://skepticblog.org/2010/09/07/what-i-believe-about-markets-and-morals/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 07 Sep 2010 10:00:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael Shermer</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[SkepticBlog]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Logic/Philosophy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[morality]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[trade]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://skepticblog.org/?p=10075</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A reply to Jerry Coyne In his endearingly titled blog, “Michael, we hardly knew ye,” the venerable evolutionary biologist and slayer of creationist dragons Jerry Coyne (author of Why Evolution is True) wonders if I’ve gone ‘round the bend over capitalism and sold my skeptical soul to the Templeton Foundation, the alleged evil subsidizers of [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h4>A reply to Jerry Coyne</h4>
<p>In his endearingly titled blog, “<a href="http://whyevolutionistrue.wordpress.com/2010/08/29/michael-we-hardly-knew-ye/">Michael, we hardly knew ye</a>,” the venerable evolutionary biologist and slayer of creationist dragons Jerry Coyne (author of <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0143116649?ie=UTF8&#38;tag=skepticcom-20&%2338;linkCode=as2&%2338;camp=1789&%2338;creative=390957&%2338;creativeASIN=0143116649"><em>Why Evolution is True</em></a>) wonders if I’ve gone ‘round the bend over capitalism and sold my skeptical soul to the Templeton Foundation, the alleged evil subsidizers of religious and capitalist propaganda. Allow me to set the record straight (again) for all my critics out there (and in reading the comments to Jerry’s blog there’s more than I thought, and many of them are darned right caustic!).<span id="more-10075"></span></p>
<p>First, on the Templeton Foundation, I was invited to write a monthly column for their new magazine, <a href="http://www.bigquestionsonline.com/"><em>Big Questions Online</em></a>, and as with my work for them in years past, I’m allowed to write just about anything I like. It is interesting that Jerry and his commentators would hone in on <a href="http://www.bigquestionsonline.com/columns/michael-shermer/evolution-ethics-and-the-market">this, my second column</a>, ignoring <a href="http://www.bigquestionsonline.com/columns/michael-shermer/deepak-chopras-god-20">my first column</a>, which was a stinging rebuke of religion in general and Deepak Chopra’s New Age spirituality in particular. No one could possibly read my list comparing God 1.0 to God 2.0 (omnipresent—nonlocal; fully man/fully God—wave/particle duality; miracle—wave function collapse, etc.) and conclude that I’m the pay of a religious propaganda machine. And if that doesn’t seal the deal for ya, the God critique was originally my second column, but the BQO editors liked it so much that they bumped it up to number 1, and it was, in fact, the most popular article on the site for the entire month. So there!</p>
<p>Second, I think I made a mistake in mentioning “capitalism” at the beginning of the column on markets and morality, because (1) the article is really about trade, not capitalism per se; and (2) that word seems to set some people off into MichaelMoorish-like paroxysms of rage, engaging the limbic system full throttle and governing back the prefrontal cortex, resulting in red-faced, spittle-spewing tirades about Gordon Gekko and Bernie Madoff. In fact, as I depict trade (especially in my book <a href="http://www.skeptic.com/productlink/b126HB"><em>The Mind of the Market</em></a>, which, curiously, few of my critics have actually read), it should be something embraced by all liberals because trade empowers individuals over corporate entities of all types (from governments and religions to actual corporations). By trade I just mean the exchange of ideas, products, or services between two or more people, and by free trade I just mean that people can engage in such exchanges without hindrance from third parties (thieves, thugs, highwaymen, bribe takers, tax collectors, and the like)—think eBay, or a flea market, or a farmer’s market. My main point in citing all those primate studies is to show the evolutionary continuity between nonhuman primates and ourselves in the evolved sense of fairness in all such exchanges (grooming, food sharing, etc.), and especially that trade helps attenuate the pervasive xenophobia between strangers, the result of our natural-born tribalism. I’m not claiming that trading hunter-gatherers were early capitalists; no, groups traded for assorted reasons having more to do with forming political coalitions against other dangerous groups (the enemy of my enemy is my friend) than in increasing primitive GDP.</p>
<p>Third, as for modern capitalism, I’m not a naïf—I think of it as akin to professional sports—competitors will cheat if they can get away with it, and so in order for the system to work there needs to be a clearly defined set of rules that are strictly enforced with severe consequences for violations. And I agree with Ralph Nader that there is far too much corporate welfare (what Adam Smith called rent seeking), in which companies will try to game the system by getting special privileges, handouts, tax breaks, and the like in order to gain an unfair advantage over competitors, especially over foreign competitors, which Adam Smith warned his readers about in<a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1153586541?ie=UTF8&#38;tag=skepticcom-20&%2338;linkCode=as2&%2338;camp=1789&%2338;creative=390957&%2338;creativeASIN=1153586541"> <em>The Wealth of Nations</em></a>.</p>
<p>Fourth, Coyne raises an important objection when he asks rhetorically: “Is Apple moral? Is General Motors moral? The questions make no sense.  These corporations may act  morally by donating money to good causes and so on, but it’s ludicrous to claim that selling cars or computers promotes morality.” Therefore, he concludes: “I don’t see capitalism as innately conducive to morality. It is, at best, orthogonal to it. It may make us more prosperous, but it doesn’t make us better people.”</p>
<p>This gets to the point of my work in evolutionary economics (the subject of <em>The Mind of the Market</em>). The evolved psychology behind trade does, in fact, makes us better people. Nonzero exchanges between strangers (“you give me that which I want and I’ll give you this which you want”) has measurably positive effects on subjects in experiments, such as those conducted by neuroeconomist <a href="http://www.skeptic.com/productlink/av182">Paul Zak</a>, who discovered a significant boost in oxytocin in subjects making fair exchanges in the Ultimatum Game and other experimental conditions, and even reversed the causal vector by giving some subjects hits of oxytocin through a nose spray (normally used to induce labor), which resulted in those subjects being more generous and fair in exchange games (that involve real money).</p>
<p>Trade makes us less likely to kill our potential trading partners. As Jared Diamond once told me about his research on Papua New Guinea hunter-gatherers: “Should you happen to meet an unfamiliar person in the forest, of course you try to kill him or else to run away. Our modern custom of just saying hello and starting a friendly chat would be suicidal.” And yet something happened in the 1960s to bring about more peaceful interactions. Initially, peace was imposed upon the native New Guineans by fiat from the Western colonial government that ruled over the territory, but officials then insured continued peace by providing goods that the people needed, as well as the technologies to enable them to continue producing more resources on their own. In less than one generation, New Guinean hunter-gatherers who were fighting each other with stone tools were suddenly New Guinean consumer-traders operating computers, flying planes, and running their own small businesses. Where goods crossed New Guinea frontiers, New Guinea armies did not.</p>
<p>This is an example from my book of what I call Bastiat’s Principle, from an observation by the 19th-century French economist Frédéric Bastiat: “Where goods do not cross frontiers, armies will.” Although trade is not a sure-fire prophylactic against between-group conflict (there are exceptions to Thomas Friedman’s observation that two countries with MacDonalds don’t fight, but as a first order approximation it is accurate), it is an integral component to establishing trust between strangers that lessens the potential volatility that naturally exists whenever groups come into contact with one another, especially over the allocation of scare resources that have alternative uses, the very definition of economics.</p>
<p>And that brings us back full circle to trade, markets, and morality.</p>
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		<title>On the Modern History of Skepticism</title>
		<link>http://www.michaelshermer.com/2009/08/on-the-modern-history-of-skepticism/</link>
		<comments>http://www.michaelshermer.com/2009/08/on-the-modern-history-of-skepticism/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 11 Aug 2009 19:00:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael Shermer</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.michaelshermer.com/?p=977</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In this interview with Reason Editor in Chief Matt Welch, shot at The Amazing Meeting in Las Vegas, Shermer talks about the history of modern skepticism, the connection between evolution and market economics, and how President Barack Obama is better than his predecessor on science. Shot and edited by Dan Hayes]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In this interview with Reason Editor in Chief Matt Welch, shot at <a href="http://www.randi.org/site/index.php/amazing-meeting.html">The Amazing Meeting</a> in Las Vegas, Shermer talks about the history of modern skepticism, the connection between evolution and market economics, and how President Barack Obama is better than his predecessor on science.</p>
<p><script type="text/javascript" src="http://reason.tv/embed/video.php?id=850"></script></p>
<p class="footnote">Shot and edited by Dan Hayes</p>
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		<title>The Mind of the Market  (Shermer on Explorations KPFK FM)</title>
		<link>http://www.michaelshermer.com/2008/02/mind-of-the-market-explorations/</link>
		<comments>http://www.michaelshermer.com/2008/02/mind-of-the-market-explorations/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 02 Feb 2008 19:00:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael Shermer</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[multimedia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[evolutionary economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[markets]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.michaelshermer.com/?p=542</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Michael Shermer discusses his new book The Mind of the Market: Compassionate Apes, Competitive Humans, and other Tales from Evolutionary Economics on Explorations KPFK FM. LISTEN to the interview]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Michael Shermer discusses his new book <a href="http://www.michaelshermer.com/the-mind-of-the-market/">The Mind of the Market: Compassionate Apes, Competitive Humans, and other Tales from Evolutionary Economics</a> on Explorations KPFK FM.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.michaelshermer.com/audio-video/TheMindoftheMarket_Explorations_KPFK_FM_02-02-2008.mp3"><strong>LISTEN to the interview</strong></a></p>
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		<title>The Mind of the Market</title>
		<link>http://www.michaelshermer.com/2008/02/mind-of-the-market/</link>
		<comments>http://www.michaelshermer.com/2008/02/mind-of-the-market/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 01 Feb 2008 19:00:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael Shermer</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Scientific American]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[capitalism]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.michaelshermer.com/2008/02/mind-of-the-market/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Evolutionary economics explains why irrational financial choices were once rational Since 99 percent our evolutionary history was spent as hunter-gatherers living in small bands of a few dozen to a few hundred people, we evolved a psychology not always well equipped to reason our way around the modern world. What may seem like irrational behavior [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h5>Evolutionary economics explains why irrational <br /> financial choices were once rational</h5>
<div class="sciamfloatright"><img src="http://michaelshermer.com/writing/wp-content/uploads/cover_2008-02.jpg" alt="magazine cover" class="cover" /></div>
<p><span class="smallcaps">Since 99 percent our evolutionary history</span> was spent as hunter-gatherers living in small bands of a few dozen to a few hundred people, we evolved a psychology not always well equipped to reason our way around the modern world. What may seem like irrational behavior today may have actually been rational a hundred thousand years ago. Without an evolutionary perspective, the assumptions of <em>Homo economicus</em> — that “Economic Man” is rational, self-maximizing, and efficient in making choices — make no sense. Take economic profit versus psychological fairness as an example.<span id="more-401"></span> </p>
<p>Behavioral economists employ an experimental procedure called the Ultimatum Game. It goes something like this. You are given $100 to split between yourself and your game partner. Whatever division of the money you propose, if your partner accepts it, you are both richer by that amount. How much should you offer? Why not suggest a $90-$10 split? If your game partner is a rational self-interested money-maximizer he isn’t going to turn down a free ten bucks, is he? He is. Research shows that proposals that deviate much beyond a $70–$30 split are usually rejected.</p>
<p>Why? Because they aren’t fair. Says who? Says the moral emotion of “reciprocal altruism,” which evolved over the Paleolithic eons to demand fairness on the part of our potential exchange partners. “I’ll scratch your back if you’ll scratch mine” only works if I know you will respond with something approaching parity. The moral sense of fairness is hardwired into our brains and is an emotion shared by most people and primates tested for it. Thousands of experimental trials with subjects from Western countries have consistently revealed a sense of injustice at low-ball offers. Further, we now have a sizable body of data from peoples in non-Western cultures around the world, including those living close to how our Paleolithic ancestors lived, and although their responses vary more than modern peoples living in market economies do, they still show a strong aversion to unfairness. </p>
<p>The deeper evolution of this can be seen in the behavior of our primate cousins. In studies with both chimpanzees and capuchin monkeys, the Emory University primatologists Frans deWaal and Sarah Brosnan found that when two individuals work together on a task for which only one is rewarded with a desired food, if the reward recipient does not share that food with his task partner, the partner will refuse to participate in future tasks and expresses emotions that are clearly meant to convey displeasure at the injustice. In another experiment in which two capuchin monkeys were trained to exchange a granite stone for a cucumber slice, they made the trade 95 percent of the time. But if one monkey received a grape instead — a delicacy capuchins greatly prefer over cucumbers — the other monkey cooperated only 60 percent of the time, sometimes even refusing the cucumber slice altogether. In a third condition in which one monkey received a grape without even having to swap a granite stone for it, the other monkey cooperated only 20 percent of the time, and in several instances became so outraged at the inequity of the outcome that they heaved the cucumber slice back at the human experimenters!</p>
<p>Such results suggest that all primates, including us, evolved a sense of justice, a moral emotion that signals to the individual that an exchange was fair or unfair. Fairness evolved as a stable strategy for maintaining social harmony in our ancestors’ small bands, where cooperation was reinforced and became the rule while freeloading was punished and became the exception. Apparently irrational economic choices today — such as turning down a free $10 with a sense of righteous injustice — were at one time rational when seen through the lens of evolution.</p>
<p>Just as it is a myth that evolution is driven solely by “selfish genes” and that organisms are exclusively greedy, selfish, and competitive, it is a myth that the economy is driven by people who are exclusively greedy, selfish, and competitive. The fact is, we are both selfish and selfless, cooperative and competitive. There exists in both life and economies mutual struggle and mutual aid. In the main, however, the balance in our nature is heavily on the side of good over evil. Markets are moral and modern economies are founded on our virtuous nature. The Gordon Gekko “Greed is Good” model of business is the exception and the Google Guys “Don’t Be Evil” model of business is the rule. If this were not the case market capitalism would have imploded long ago.</p>
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		<title>Why People Don’t Trust Free Markets</title>
		<link>http://www.michaelshermer.com/2008/01/why-people-dont-trust-free-markets/</link>
		<comments>http://www.michaelshermer.com/2008/01/why-people-dont-trust-free-markets/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 29 Jan 2008 20:39:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael Shermer</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[essays]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.michaelshermer.com/2008/01/why-people-don%e2%80%99t-trust-free-markets/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The new science of evolutionary economics offers an explanation for capitalism skepticism In his magnum opus on the power of free markets, Human Action, the Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises noted: “The truth is that capitalism has not only multiplied population figures but at the same time improved the people’s standard of living in an [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h5>The new science of evolutionary economics offers an explanation for capitalism skepticism</h5>
<p>In his magnum opus on the power of free markets, <em>Human Action</em>, the Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises noted: “The truth is that capitalism has not only multiplied population figures but at the same time improved the people’s standard of living in an unprecedented way. Neither economic thinking nor historical experience suggest that any other social system could be as beneficial to the masses as capitalism. The results speak for themselves. The market economy needs no apologists and propagandists. It can apply to itself the words of Sir Christopher Wren’s epitaph in St. Paul’s: <em>Si monumentum requires, circumspice</em>.” If you seek his monument, look around.<span id="more-399"></span></p>
<p>Capitalism may not need apologists and propagandists, but it does need a vigorous scientific and rational defense as evidenced by the fact that so many people still distrust free markets. Market solutions to social problems are generally received with skepticism. Businessmen are distrusted, corporations looked at askance, and there is a well-known resentment against those who have most benefited from markets. (As one <em>New Yorker</em> cartoon featuring two people in conversation reads: “I hated Bill Gates before it became so fashionable.”) Why do people distrust free markets?</p>
<p>Part of the answer can be found in our history. Because we lived for so long in small groups of a couple of dozen to a couple of hundred people in hunter-gatherer communities in which everyone was either genetically related or knew one another intimately, most resources were shared, wealth accumulation was almost unheard of, and excessive greed and avarice was punished. Thus, we naturally respond to a free market system in which conspicuous wealth is paraded as a sign of success with envy and anger. Call it evolutionary egalitarianism. </p>
<p>Throughout most of the history of civilization as well, economic inequalities were not the result of natural differences in drive and talent between members of a society equally free to pursue their right to prosperity; instead, a handful of chiefs, kings, nobles, and priests exploited an unfair and rigged social system to achieve gains best described as ill gotten.</p>
<p>People also have a remarkably low tolerance for economic ambiguity. Free markets are chaotic and uncertain, uncontrollable and unpredictable. Most of us have little tolerance for such environments, and we have learned to expect that social institutions such as the government will bring a level of certainty to society. People who cannot afford (or who choose not to purchase) insurance against acts of God typically expect acts of government to save them.</p>
<p>As well, there is well-documented liberal bias in the academy and the media against free markets. A 2005 study by the George Mason University economist Daniel Klein, for example, found that at two of America’s leading institutes of higher learning Democrats outnumbered Republicans among the faculty by a staggering ratio of 10 to 1 at the University of California, Berkeley and by 7.6 to 1 at Stanford University. Measuring political attitudes through voter registrations among faculty in twenty different departments, in the humanities and social sciences the ratio was 16 to 1 at both campuses (30 to 1 among assistant and associate professors), and in some departments, such as anthropology and journalism, there wasn’t a single Republican to be found. </p>
<p>In another 2005 study on “Politics and Professional Advancement Among College Faculty,” Stanley Rothman, S. Robert Lichter, and Neil Nevitte discovered that only 15 percent of those teaching at American colleges and universities describe themselves as conservative while 72 percent said they were liberal, and that figure climbed to 80 percent in such departments as English literature, philosophy, political science, and religious studies, with only five percent labeling themselves as conservative. In a 2005 publication in the <em>Georgetown Law Journal</em>, Northwestern Law Professor John McGinnis reviewed the faculties of the top 21 law schools rated by the 2002 U.S. <em>News &#038; World Report</em> graduate-school rankings and found that politically active professors at these top law schools overwhelmingly tend to be Democrats — 81 percent contributed “wholly or predominantly” to Democratic campaigns while just 15 percent did the same for Republicans.</p>
<p>In a manner and potency matching academia, the bias in the media is against free market economics. A comprehensive 2005 study conducted by UCLA political scientist Tim Groseclose and University of Missouri economist Jeffrey Milyo, published in the <em>Quarterly Journal of Economics</em>, measured media bias by counting the times that a particular media outlet cited various think tanks and policy groups, and then compared this with the number of times that members of Congress cited the same groups. “Our results show a strong liberal bias: all of the news outlets we examine, except <em>Fox News’ Special Report</em> and the <em>Washington Times</em>, received scores to the left of the average member of Congress.” Not surprisingly, the authors discovered that <em>CBS Evening News</em> and the <em>New York Times</em> “received scores far to the left of center” and that “the most centrist media outlets were <em>PBS NewsHour</em>, <em>CNN’s Newsnight</em>, and <em>ABC’s Good Morning America</em>.” Interestingly, <em>USA Today</em> — that <em>ne plus ultra</em> of pop print media — was closest to political center of all newspapers. </p>
<p>The strongest reason for skepticism of capitalism, however, is a myth commonly found in objections to both the theory of evolution and free market economics, and that is that they are based on the presumption that animals and humans are inherently selfish, and that the economy is like Tennyson’s memorable description of nature: “red in tooth and claw.” After Charles Darwin’s <em>The Origin of Species</em> was published in 1859, the British philosopher Herbert Spencer immortalized natural selection in the phrase “survival of the fittest,” one of the most misleading descriptions in the history of science and one that has been embraced by social Darwinists ever since, applying it inappropriately to racial theory, national politics, and economic doctrines. Even Darwin’s bulldog, Thomas Henry Huxley, reinforced what he called this “gladiatorial” view of life in a series of essays, describing nature “whereby the strongest, the swiftest, and the cunningest live to fight another day.” </p>
<p>If biological evolution in nature, and market capitalism in society, were really founded on and sustained by nothing more than a winner-take-all strategy, life on earth would have been snuffed out hundreds of millions of years ago and market capitalism would have collapsed centuries ago. This is, in fact, why WorldCom and Enron type disasters still make headlines. If they didn’t — if such corporate catastrophes caused by egregious ethical lapses were so common that they were not even worth covering on the nightly news — free market capitalism would implode. Instead it thrives, but just as eternal vigilance is the price of freedom, so too must it be for free markets, since both are inextricably bound together.</p>
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		<title>Reason magazine editor Nick Gillespie  interviews Michael Shermer</title>
		<link>http://www.michaelshermer.com/2008/01/nick-gillespie-interviews-shermer/</link>
		<comments>http://www.michaelshermer.com/2008/01/nick-gillespie-interviews-shermer/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Jan 2008 21:00:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael Shermer</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[During his book tour Michael Shermer visited the offices of Reason magazine, who have recently added Reason.TV to their media package, a project helped launched by Drew Carey, who turns out to be a big fan of Skeptic magazine and all things skeptical. In this interview Reason magazine editor Nick Gillespie interviews Shermer on his [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>During his book tour Michael Shermer visited the offices of <em>Reason</em> magazine, who have recently added Reason.TV to their media package, a project helped launched by Drew Carey, who turns out to be a big fan of <em>Skeptic</em> magazine and all things skeptical. In this interview <em>Reason</em> magazine editor Nick Gillespie interviews Shermer on his new book, <em>The Mind of the Market</em>. </p>
<p><script type="text/javascript" src="http://www.reason.tv/embed/video.php?id=232"></script></p>
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		<title>Why Candidates Really Get Ahead</title>
		<link>http://www.michaelshermer.com/2008/01/why-candidates-really-get-ahead/</link>
		<comments>http://www.michaelshermer.com/2008/01/why-candidates-really-get-ahead/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 14 Jan 2008 20:00:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael Shermer</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[essays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cumulative Advantage]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Democracy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matthew Effect]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[politics]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.michaelshermer.com/2008/01/why-candidates-really-get-ahead/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The new science of evolutionary economics explains why some candidates, like some products, get ahead in the marketplace As the presidential candidates bounce from primary to primary, with some surging and others falling back, it is appropriate to ask if there is something going on here more than simply political preferences and perceived positions on [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h5>The new science of evolutionary economics explains why some candidates, like some products, get ahead in the marketplace</h5>
<p>As the presidential candidates bounce from primary to primary, with some surging and others falling back, it is appropriate to ask if there is something going on here more than simply political preferences and perceived positions on issues. There is. In my latest book, <em>The Mind of the Market</em>, I discuss a phenomenon called the Matthew Effect. It is a disturbing disruption of what we think of as democratic fairness. Here&#8217;s how it works.<span id="more-396"></span></p>
<p>In Jesus&#8217; <em>Parable of the Talents</em>, recounted in Matthew 25:14–29, the gospel author recalls the messiah as saying in the final verse: &#8220;For to everyone who has, more shall be given, and he will have an abundance; but from the one who does not have, even what he does have shall be taken away.&#8221; Out of context this hardly sounds like the wisdom of the prophet who proclaimed that the meek shall inherit the earth, but in context, Jesus&#8217; point was that properly investing one&#8217;s money (as measured in &#8220;talents&#8221;) generates even more wealth. The servant who was given five talents invested it and gave his master ten talents in return. The servant who was given two talents invested it and gave his master four talents in return. But the servant who was given one talent buried it in the ground and gave his master back just the one talent. The master then ordered his risk-averse servant to give the one talent to the servant who had doubled his investment of five talents, and so he who earned the most was rewarded with even more. And thus it is that the rich get richer.</p>
<p>Jesus probably had in mind something more than an economic allegory about selecting the right investment tool for your money, but the story is a parable about how people and products can gain an unfair advantage in the marketplace. In the 1960s, the sociologist of science Robert K. Merton conducted an extensive study of how scientific ideas are discovered and credited in the marketplace of ideas and discovered that eminent scientists typically receive more credit than they deserve simply by dint of having a big name, while their junior colleagues and graduate students, who usually do most of the work, go largely unnoticed. A similar well-known effect can be seen in how both innovative ideas and clever quotes gravitate up and are given credit to the most famous person associated with them.</p>
<p>Merton called this the <em>Matthew Effect</em>. Marketers know it as <em>Cumulative Advantage</em>. Once a product gets a head-start in sales it signals to consumers that other people want that product and therefore it must be good, thereby causing them to desire it as well, which leads even more people to purchase the product, sending more signals to other consumers that they too must have it, and so it climbs up the bestseller list. Everyone in business knows about the effect, which is why authors and publishers, for example, try so fervently to land their book on the <em>New York Times</em> bestseller list. Once you are on the list bookstores move your title to the &#8220;bestseller&#8221; bookcase (sometimes even labeled &#8220;<em>New York Times</em> Bestseller List&#8221;) and to the front of the store where copies of the book are stacked like cordwood. This sends a signal to potential book buyers entering the store that this must be a good read, triggering an increase in sales that gets reported to the <em>New York Times</em> book review editors, who bump the title up the list, sending another signal to bookstore buyers to order even more copies, which secures the title more time in the bestseller list that increases sales even further, and round and round the feedback loop goes as the richest authors get even richer.</p>
<p>To find out if the Bestseller Effect is real, the Columbia University sociologist Duncan Watts and his collaborators Matthew Salganik and Peter Dodds tested it in a web-based experiment in which 14,000 participants registered at a website where they had the opportunity to listen to, rate, and download songs by unknown bands. One group of registrants were only given the names of the songs and bands, while a second group of registrants were also shown how many times the song had been downloaded. The researchers called this the &#8220;social influence&#8221; condition, because they wanted to know if seeing how many people had downloaded a song would influence subjects&#8217; decision on whether or not to download it. Predictably, the web participants in the social influence condition were influenced by the download rate figures: songs with a higher download number were more likely to be downloaded by new participants, whereas subjects in the independent group who saw no download rates, revealed dramatically different song preferences. This is not to deny that the quality of a song or a book or any other product does not matter. Of course it does, and this too is measurable. But it turns out that subjective consumer preferences grounded in relative rankings by other consumers can and often does wash out the effects of more objective ratings of product quality.</p>
<p>Markets that traffic in rankings, ratings, and bestseller lists seem to operate on their own volition, seemingly beyond the control of the forces within. Thinking of the political landscape as a market and the candidates as competing products, we can see how polls and media coverage confer the Matthew Effect upon certain candidates, thereby shifting voter preferences and loyalties like so many brands in the supermarket. The moment Barack Obama won the Iowa caucus the Matthew Effect kicked into high gear, generating immediate media attention, driving political pundits to shift their focus, and creating a positive feedback loop in which the media-rich candidate got even richer.</p>
<p>So in addition to the actual value of a political product, our shifting brand political preferences often have more to do with this peculiar social phenomenon than it does what we like to think of as democratic fairness.</p>
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