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	<title>The Work of Michael Shermer &#187; science</title>
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	<description>books, essays, columns, reviews, and multimedia clips of famed skeptic Michael Shermer</description>
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		<title>Alfred Russel Wallace was a Hyper-Evolutionist, not an Intelligent Design Creationist</title>
		<link>http://www.skepticblog.org/2012/01/31/alfred-russel-wallace-hyper-evolutionist/</link>
		<comments>http://www.skepticblog.org/2012/01/31/alfred-russel-wallace-hyper-evolutionist/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 31 Jan 2012 10:00:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael Shermer</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[SkepticBlog]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[creationism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[evolution]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[intelligent design]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[natural selection]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[religion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[science]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.skepticblog.org/?p=16652</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Michael Shermer endeavors to enlighten modern thinkers on the perils of misjudging Alfred Russel Wallace as an Intelligent Design creationist, and at the same time reveal the fundamental flaw in both his evolutionary theory and that of this latest incarnation of creationism.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The double dangerous game of Whiggish What-if? history is on the table in this debate that inexorably invokes hindsight bias, along the lines of “Was Thomas Jefferson a racist because he had slaves?” Adjudicating historical belief and behavior with modern judicial scales is a fool’s errand that carries but one virtue—enlightenment of the past for correcting current misunderstandings. Thus I shall endeavor to enlighten modern thinkers on the perils of misjudging Alfred Russel Wallace as an Intelligent Design creationist, and at the same time reveal the fundamental flaw in both his evolutionary theory and that of this latest incarnation of creationism.</p>
<p>Wallace’s scientific heresy was first delivered in the April, 1869 issue of <em>The Quarterly Review</em>, in which he outlined what he saw as the failure of natural selection to explain the enlarged human brain (compared to apes), as well as the organs of speech, the hand, and the external form of the body: </p>
<blockquote><p>In the brain of the lowest savages and, as far as we know, of the prehistoric races, we have an organ…little inferior in size and complexity to that of the highest types…. But the mental requirements of the lowest savages, such as the Australians or the Andaman Islanders, are very little above those of many animals. How then was an organ developed far beyond the needs of its possessor? Natural Selection could only have endowed the savage with a brain a little superior to that of an ape, whereas he actually possesses one but very little inferior to that of the average members of our learned societies. </p></blockquote>
<p>(Please note the language that, were we to judge the man solely by his descriptors for indigenous peoples, would lead us to label Wallace a racist even though he was in his own time what we would today call a progressive liberal.)<span id="more-16652"></span></p>
<p>Since natural selection was the only law of nature Wallace knew of to explain the development of these structures, and since he determined that it could not adequately do so, he concluded that “an Overruling Intelligence has watched over the action of those laws, so directing variations and so determining their accumulation, as finally to produce an organization sufficiently perfect to admit of, and even to aid in, the indefinite advancement of our mental and moral nature.” </p>
<p>Natural selection is not prescient—it does not select for needs in the future. Nature did not know we would one day need a big brain in order to contemplate the heavens or compute complex mathematical problems; she merely selected amongst our ancestors those who were best able to survive and leave behind offspring. But since we <em>are</em> capable of such sublime and lofty mental functions, Wallace deduced, clearly natural selection could not have been the originator of a brain big enough to handle them. Thus the need to invoke an “Overruling Intelligence” for this apparent gap in the theory. </p>
<p>Why did Wallace retreat from his own theory of natural selection when it came to the human mind? The answer, in a word, is <em>hyper-selectionism</em> (or <em>adaptationism</em>), in which the current adaptive purpose of a structure or function must be explained by natural selection applied to the past. Birds presently use wings to fly, so if we cannot conceive of how natural selection could incrementally select for fractional wings that were fully functional at each partial stage (called “the problem of incipient stages”) then some other force must have been at work. Darwin answered this criticism by demonstrating how present structures serve a purpose different from the one for which they were originally selected. Partial wings, for example, were not poorly designed flying structures but well designed thermoregulators. Stephen Jay Gould calls this process “exaptation” (ex-adaptation) and uses the Panda’s thumb as his type specimen: it is not a poorly designed thumb but a radial sesamoid (wrist) bone modified by natural selection for stripping leaves off bamboo shoots.</p>
<p>Wallace’s hyperselectionism and adaptationism were outlined more formally in an 1870 paper, “The Limits of Natural Selection as Applied to Man,” in which he admitted up front the danger of proffering a force that is beyond those known to science: “I must confess that this theory has the disadvantage of requiring the intervention of some distinct individual intelligence…. It therefore implies that the great laws which govern the material universe were insufficient for this production, unless we consider…that the controlling action of such higher intelligences is a necessary part of those laws….” </p>
<p>After an extensive analysis of brain size differences between humans and non-human primates, Wallace then considers such abstractions as law, government, science, and even such games as chess (a favorite pastime of his), noting that “savages” lack all such advances. Even more, “Any considerable development of these would, in fact, be useless or even hurtful to him, since they would to some extent interfere with the supremacy of those perceptive and animal faculties on which his very existence often depends, in the severe struggle he has to carry on against nature and his fellow-man. Yet the rudiments of all these powers and feelings undoubtedly exist in him, since one or other of them frequently manifest themselves in exceptional cases, or when some special circumstances call them forth.” </p>
<p>Therefore, he concludes, “the general, moral, and intellectual development of the savage is not less removed from that of civilised man than has been shown to be the case in the one department of mathematics; and from the fact that all the moral and intellectual faculties do occasionally manifest themselves, we may fairly conclude that they are always latent, and that the large brain of the savage man is much beyond his actual requirements in the savage state.” Thus, “A brain one-half larger than that of the gorilla would, according to the evidence before us, fully have sufficed for the limited mental development of the savage; and we must therefore admit that the large brain he actually possesses could never have been solely developed by any of those laws of evolution…. The brain of prehistoric and of savage man seems to me to prove the existence of some power distinct from that which has guided the development of the lower animals through their ever-varying forms of being.” </p>
<p>The middle sections of this lengthy paper review additional human features that Wallace could not conceive of being evolved by natural selection: the distribution of body hair, naked skin, feet and hands, the voice box and speech, the ability to sing, artistic notions of form, color, and composition, mathematical reasoning and geometrical spatial abilities, morality and ethical systems, and especially such concepts as space and time, eternity and infinity. “How were all or any of these faculties first developed, when they could have been of no possible use to man in his early stages of barbarism? How could natural selection, or survival of the fittest in the struggle for existence, at all favour the development of mental powers so entirely removed from the material necessities of savage men, and which even now, with our comparatively high civilisation, are, in their farthest developments, in advance of the age, and appear to have relation rather to the future of the race than to its actual status?”</p>
<p>Modern Intelligent Design creationists generally (with few exceptions) believe that the designer is God. Nowhere in this paper does Wallace invoke God as the overarching intelligence. In a footnote in the second edition of the volume in which this paper was published, in fact, Wallace upbraids those who accused him of such speculations:</p>
<blockquote><p>Some of my critics seem quite to have misunderstood my meaning in this part of the argument. They have accused me of unnecessarily and unphilosophically appealing to “first causes” in order to get over a difficulty—of believing that “our brains are made by God and our lungs by natural selection;” and that, in point of fact, “man is God’s domestic animal.” … Now, in referring to the origin of man, and its possible determining causes, I have used the words “some other power”—“some intelligent power”—“a superior intelligence”—“a controlling intelligence,” and only in reference to the origin of universal forces and laws have I spoken of the will or power of “one Supreme Intelligence.” These are the only expressions I have used in alluding to the power which I believe has acted in the case of man, and they were purposely chosen to show that I reject the hypothesis of “first causes” for any and every special effect in the universe, except in the same sense that the action of man or of any other intelligent being is a first cause. In using such terms I wished to show plainly that I contemplated the possibility that the development of the essentially human portions of man’s structure and intellect may have been determined by the directing influence of some higher intelligent beings, acting through natural and universal laws.</p></blockquote>
<p>Clearly Wallace’s heresy had nothing to do with God or any other supernatural force, as these “natural and universal laws” could be fully incorporated into the type of empirical science he practiced. It was not spiritualism, but <em>scientism</em> at work in Wallace’s world-view: “These speculations are usually held to be far beyond the bounds of science; but they appear to me to be more legitimate deductions from the facts of science than those which consist in reducing the whole universe…to matter conceived and defined so as to be philosophically inconceivable.” </p>
<p>In Wallace’s science there is no supernatural. There is only the natural and unexplained phenomenon yet to be incorporated into the natural sciences. That he left no room in his evolutionary theory for exaptations of early structures for later use is no reflection on his ambitions and abilities as a scientist. It was, in fact, one of Wallace’s career goals to be the scientist who brought more of the apparent supernatural into the realm of the natural, and the remainder of his life was devoted to fleshing out the details of a scientism that encompassed so many different issues and controversies that made him a heretic-scientist. </p>
<p>If modern Intelligent Design theorists restricted their visage to only natural causes they would, perchance, be taken more seriously by the scientific community, who at present (myself included) sees this movement as nothing more than another species of the genus <em>Homo creationopithicus</em>.</p>
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		<title>More God, Less Crime or  More Guns, Less Crime?</title>
		<link>http://www.skepticblog.org/2012/01/03/more-god-less-crime-or-more-guns-less-crime/</link>
		<comments>http://www.skepticblog.org/2012/01/03/more-god-less-crime-or-more-guns-less-crime/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Jan 2012 10:00:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael Shermer</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[SkepticBlog]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[decline of violence]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John Lott]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[religion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[science]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.skepticblog.org/?p=16351</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[During the last week of 2011, Michael Shermer spoke at and attended a salon in Santa Fe, New Mexico at which two of the speakers addressed the topic of the decline of crime, one (Byron Johnson) attributing it to god and the other (John Lott) to guns. In this week&#8217;s Skepticblog, Michael Shermer reports on their findings…]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1599473739/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&#38;tag=skepticcom-20&%2338;linkCode=as2&%2338;camp=1789&%2338;creative=390957&%2338;creativeASIN=1599473739"><img src="http://www.skepticblog.org/wp-content/uploads/more-god-less-crime-cover.jpg" alt="More God, Less Crime (book cover)" title="Order the book from Amazon" width="200" height="299" class="alignright size-full wp-image-16360" /></a></p>
<p>During the last week of 2011, I spoke at and attended a wonderful salon in Santa Fe, New Mexico organized and hosted by Sandy Blakeslee, the brilliant science writer for the <em>New York Times</em> and the author of numerous engaging popular books on neuroscience. Two of the speakers at the salon addressed the topic of the decline of crime, one (Byron Johnson) attributing it to god and the other (John Lott) to guns. Of the two, Lott by far took the day with superior data and better arguments, although for a much wider and deeper analysis of the decline of violence in general I highly recommend Steven Pinker’s The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined (Viking, 2011), which I <a href="http://www.skepticblog.org/2011/09/27/review-of-better-angels-of-our-nature/">recently reviewed in these pages</a>.  </p>
<p><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0226493660/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&#38;tag=skepticcom-20&%2338;linkCode=as2&%2338;camp=1789&%2338;creative=390957&%2338;creativeASIN=0226493660"><img src="http://www.skepticblog.org/wp-content/uploads/more-guns-less-crime-cover.jpg" alt="More Guns, Less Crime (book cover)" title="Order the book from Amazon" width="200" height="301" class="alignright size-full wp-image-16359" /></a></p>
<p>Byron Johnson is a professor at Baylor University and the founding director of the Baylor Institute for Studies of Religion as well as director of the Program on Prosocial Behavior. Acknowledging that he took the title of his book, <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1599473739/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&#38;tag=skepticcom-20&%2338;linkCode=as2&%2338;camp=1789&%2338;creative=390957&%2338;creativeASIN=1599473739"><em>More God, Less Crime: Why Faith Matters and How It Could Matter More</em></a> (Templeton Press, 2011) directly from Lott’s book, <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0226493660/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&#38;tag=skepticcom-20&%2338;linkCode=as2&%2338;camp=1789&%2338;creative=390957&%2338;creativeASIN=0226493660"><em>More Guns, Less Crime: Understanding Crime and Gun Control Laws</em></a> (University of Chicago Press, 2010), Johnson mostly recounted his experiences working with prisoners in an attempt to lower recidivism rates by increasing religiosity…of the Christian variety, of course. What few data slides he presented harmed his case more than helped it by being either impossible to read (dark, small type) or countering his claim (one slide showed no difference in post-conversion crime rates). Even his anecdotes seemed to gainsay his thesis, as in recounting the story of one man who even after converting to Christianity refused to confess his crime of rape and murder of a young girl until he met her mother on the day of his execution, at which point he broke down and apologized to her. Additional anecdotes and frank admissions by Johnson only worsened his case, such as that many prisoners only convert in order to impress parole boards, and that many of his fellow Christians (he called them “high octane” evangelicals) were only in the game to tally up conversion scores in an environment ripe for the picking. (I routinely receive letters from prisoners who bemoan the constant evangelizing, not only by Christians but by Muslims as well who also see prisons as conversion opportunities. As the Russian comedian Yavak Smirnoff used to joke about performing in the USSR, mixing “captured” for “captive” audiences: “they’re not going anywhere!”)<span id="more-16351"></span></p>
<p>Johnson seems like a nice enough fellow, and with our current overcrowded prison system letting criminals out early, if he really can lower recidivism rates it’s hard not to acknowledge that this is a good thing for society (assuming he’s having any effect at all, which I presume he must be at least on a case-by-case basis, even if it isn’t statistically significant from other recidivism methods). Although I would much prefer that people not commit crimes for rational and secular moral reasons (respect for private property, sanctity of life, etc.), I am reminded of an encounter I had with a young Christian man in his early 20s during the Q &#038; A after one of my public lectures. I had just asked the rhetorical question—which I often ask during my talk on the evolution of morality and how to be good without god—“What would you do if there were no God? Would you rape, steal, and murder?” Naturally people agree that they wouldn’t, but in this instance the man said he was pretty sure that if he decided that there were no god he would do just that. I told him that Jesus loves him and has a plan for his life and future. It got a laugh but everyone in the room realized that not everyone is a rational calculator and moral reasoner. Some people may very well need the shadow of enforcement that comes from believing in an invisible policeman in the sky who, like those pesky red light video cameras at busy intersections, insures that even when the cops aren’t around all sins and violations will be settled in due time, even without due process. </p>
<p>As far as I know Johnson, along with his fellow religious believers who embrace the hypothesis that religion is good for society, have failed to account for a simple and obvious (once you think about it) correlation and comparison: Gregory Paul’s 2005 study published in the <em>Journal of Religion and Society</em>—“<a href="http://moses.creighton.edu/JRS/2005/2005-11.pdf">Cross-National Correlations of Quantifiable Societal Health with Popular Religiosity and Secularism in the Prosperous Democracies</a>”—that showed an inverse correlation between religiosity (measured by belief in God, biblical literalism, and frequency of prayer and service attendance) and societal health (measured by rates of homicide, suicide, childhood mortality, life expectancy, sexually transmitted diseases, abortion, and teen pregnancy) in 18 developed democracies. “In general, higher rates of belief in and worship of a creator correlate with higher rates of homicide, juvenile and early adult mortality, STD infection rates, teen pregnancy, and abortion in the prosperous democracies,” Paul found. “The United States is almost always the most dysfunctional of the developed democracies, sometimes spectacularly so.” Indeed, the U.S. scores the highest in religiosity and the highest (by far) in homicides, STDs, abortions, and teen pregnancies. </p>
<p>If religion is such a powerful prophylactic against sin, immorality, and crime, then why is the most religious democracy on the planet also the most sinful and crime-ridden? I’m not claiming that religion causes these problems (although Paul does make this claim), only that the claim that it prevents or attenuates them is falsified by the data.</p>
<p>John Lott, by contrast, is a social scientists’ social scientist. A data man to the core, I spent several hours with him the night before at a party pressing him for details of his argument that more guns means less crime. He was unwavering in his conviction—both to me privately and in his public talk (and in his book)—that not one social scientist or criminologist has been able to produce a single example of a city or county that has experienced a consistent decline in crimes after a ban on guns was enacted. In fact, in slide after slide and example after example Lott showed that the opposite correlation tends to be the case: gun bans <em>increase</em> crime.</p>
<p>Take Washington, D.C. Before the ban on handguns was implemented in August of 1976, DC ranked 20th in murder rates out of the top 50 cities in America. After the gun ban, DC shot up to either #1 or #2, where year after year it held steady as “the murder capital of the nation,” as it as dubbed by the media. As a control experiment of sorts, after the Supreme Court decision in the Heller case overturned the DC gun ban, murder rates dropped and have continued to fall ever since. According to Lott, whose data is based primarily on crime statistics provided by the FBI, once the gun ban was lifted, homicide rates plummeted 42.1%, sexual assault rates dropped 14.9%, robbery excluding guns dropped 34.3%, robbery with guns plunged 58%, assault with a dangerous weapon excluding guns sank 11%, assault with a dangerous weapon using guns tumbled 35.6%, and total violent crime nosedived 31%, along with total property crimes decreasing a total of 10.7%. </p>
<p>Chicago showed a similar effect, Lott demonstrated. Ever since the gun ban was implemented in 1982, no year has been as low in crimes as it was before the ban. Island nations (which serve as good tests, Lott says, because their borders are more tightly controlled from extraneous variables) demonstrate the same effect: Jamaica and Ireland homicide rates increased after gun bans were imposed. Ditto England and Wales: After a gun ban was imposed in January of 1997, homicide rates slowly climbed and peaked at an average of 28% higher after the ban. (By dramatic contrast, Lott said that in 1900 London in which people were free to do whatever they wanted with their guns, there were a grand total of 2 gun-related deaths and 5 armed robberies in a population of many millions, and this was 20 years before gun laws began going into effect in 1920.)</p>
<p>Why do more guns mean less crime? Lott offers a very practical explanation: it is extremely hard to keep criminals from getting and keeping guns. In other words, Gun bans are primarily obeyed by non-criminals. Criminals that already have guns do not turn them in, and potential criminals that want to get guns have no problem procuring them on the street illegally. Lott cited several studies by criminologists who interviewed criminals in jail and collected data on the amount of time they spend casing a home before burglarizing it. In the U.K., where gun bans are much more prevalent than in the U.S., the criminals reported that they spend very little time casing a joint and that they don’t really care if someone is home or not because they know the residents won’t be armed (whereas they, of course, are armed). Their U.S. counterparts, by contrast, reported spending more than double the time casing a home before robbing it, explaining that they were waiting for the residents to leave. Why? They said that they were worried they would be shot.</p>
<p>Why is crime so much higher here in the U.S. than in the U.K. and elsewhere? Lott explained that the remarkably high homicide rates are a geographical anomaly. The U.S. justice department reports that about 80% of violent crimes are drug gang related, and that about 75% of homicides take place in 3% of counties. And even within those counties the murders are taking place in a tiny portion in which drug gangs are operating. So when we compare murder rates between countries—say between the U.S. and Canada—it is really comparing the crime in one country to just a very tiny portion of American cities where gangs proliferate. What would happen if drugs were legalized? Speaking as an economist who understands the basic law of supply and demand, Lott opined that there is no doubt that crimes would decrease while drug-use would increase. So it’s a trade-off. </p>
<p>I do not know this area well enough to judge the validity of Lott’s thesis. His data and his plausible causal explanations for the correlations strike me as sound, although I know that proponents of gun control have taken him to task over various statistical issues. Still, I would like to see his fundamental challenge met: is there any city or county in the U.S. where crime and murders have consistently decreased after gun control laws were passed and enforced? </p>
<p>Anecdotally, of course, we are horrified at the innocent people gunned down who would be alive were there no guns anywhere in the country. Just days before Lott’s lecture, in fact, there was the story about the U.S. soldier returning home from Iraq who was shot dead on Christmas day in a dispute over a football team. Had there not been guns in that home the worst thing that probably would have happened is a bit of pushing and shoving and shouting, perhaps a roundhouse punch or two thrown, and a couple of bruised egos in the end. But the problem is that the genie is out of the bottle. Millions of guns are already out there, and short of a Stasi-like police state sweep through every home, business, garage, shack, storage unit, cabin, car, and container in every nook and cranny in every state in the union, gun bans will most likely be honored by the people who least need them and ignored by those who do—the criminals. </p>
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		<title>Paleolithic Politics</title>
		<link>http://www.skepticblog.org/2011/12/06/paleolithic-politics/</link>
		<comments>http://www.skepticblog.org/2011/12/06/paleolithic-politics/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 06 Dec 2011 10:00:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael Shermer</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[SkepticBlog]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[belief]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[confirmation bias]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[science]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[tribalism]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.skepticblog.org/?p=16166</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Research in cognitive psychology shows, for example, that once we commit to a belief we employ the <em>confirmation bias</em>, in which we look for and find confirming evidence in support of it and ignore or rationalize away any disconfirming evidence. In this Skepticblog, in light of the group-psychology of our ancestral past, Michael Shermer takes a look at how the confirmation bias affects our still-tribal political process.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Has there ever been a time when the political process has been so bipartisan and divisive? Yes, actually, one has only to recall the rancorousness of the Bush-Gore or Bush-Kerry campaigns, harken back to the acrimonious campaigns of Nixon or Johnson, read historical accounts of the political carnage of both pre- and post-Civil War elections, or watch HBO’s <em>John Adams</em> series to relive in full period costuming the bipartite bitterness between the parties of Adams and Jefferson to realize just how myopic is our perspective.</p>
<p>We can go back even further into our ancestral past to understand why the political process is so tribal. But for the business attire donned in the marbled halls of congress we are a scant few steps removed from the bands and tribes of our hunter-gatherer ancestors, and a few more leaps afield from the hominid ancestors roaming together in small bands on the African savannah. There, in those long-gone millennia, were formed the family ties and social bonds that enabled our survival among predators who were faster, stronger, and deadlier than us. Unwavering loyalty to your fellow tribesmen was a signal that they could count on you when needed. Undying friendship with those in your group meant that they would reciprocate when the chips were down. Within-group amity was insurance against the between-group enmity that characterized our ancestral past. As Ben Franklin admonished his fellow revolutionaries, we must all hang together or we will surely hang separately.</p>
<p>In this historical trajectory our group psychology evolved and along with it a propensity for xenophobia—in-group good, out-group bad. Thus it is that members of the other political party are not just wrong—they are evil and dangerous. Stray too far from the dogma of your own party and you risk being perceived as an outsider, an Other we may not be able to trust. Consistency in your beliefs is a signal to your fellow group members that you are not a wishy-washy, Namby Pamby, flip-flopper, and that I can count on you when needed.<span id="more-16166"></span></p>
<p>This is why, for example, the political beliefs of members of each party are so easy to predict. Without even knowing you, I predict that if you are a liberal you read the <em>New York Times</em>, listen to NPR radio, watch CNN, hate George W. Bush and loathe Sarah Palin, are pro-choice, anti-gun, adhere to the separation of church and state, are in favor of universal healthcare, vote for measures to redistribute wealth and tax the rich in order to level the playing field, and believe that global warming is real, human caused, and potentially disastrous for civilization if the government doesn’t do something dramatic and soon. By contrast, I predict that if you are a conservative you read the <em>Wall Street Journal</em>, listen to conservative talk radio, watch Fox News, love George W. Bush and venerate Sarah Palin, are pro-life, anti-gun control, believe that America is a Christian nation that should meld church and state, are against universal healthcare, vote against measures to redistribute wealth and tax the rich, and are skeptical of global warming and/or government schemes to dramatically alter our economy in order to save civilization.</p>
<p>Research in cognitive psychology shows, for example, that once we commit to a belief we employ the <em>confirmation bias</em>, in which we look for and find confirming evidence in support of it and ignore or rationalize away any disconfirming evidence. In one experiment subjects were presented with evidence that contradicted a belief they held deeply, and with evidence that supported those same beliefs. The results showed that the subjects recognized the validity of the confirming evidence but were skeptical of the value of the disconfirming evidence. The confirmation bias was poignantly on display during the run-up to the 2004 Bush-Kerry Presidential election when subjects had their brains scanned while assessing statements by both Bush and Kerry in which the candidates clearly contradicted themselves. Half of the subjects were self-identified as “strong” Republicans and half “strong” Democrats. Not surprisingly, in their assessments Republican subjects were as critical of Kerry as Democratic subjects were of Bush, yet both let their own preferred candidate off the evaluative hook. The brain scans showed that the part of the brain most associated with reasoning—the <em>dorsolateral prefrontal cortex</em>—was quiet. Most active were the <em>orbital frontal cortex</em> that is involved in the processing of emotions, the <em>anterior cingulate</em> that is associated with conflict resolution, and the <em>ventral striatum</em> that is related to rewards.</p>
<p>In other words, reasoning with facts about the issues is quite secondary to the emotional power of first siding with your party and then employing your reason, intelligence, and education in the service of your political commitment.</p>
<p>Our political parties today evolved out of the Paleolithic parties of the past.</p>
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		<title>As Far As Her Eyes Can See</title>
		<link>http://www.michaelshermer.com/2011/12/as-far-as-her-eyes-can-see/</link>
		<comments>http://www.michaelshermer.com/2011/12/as-far-as-her-eyes-can-see/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Dec 2011 19:05:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael Shermer</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[reviews]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[book review]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Knocking on Heaven's Door]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lisa Randall]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[physics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[science]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[universe]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.michaelshermer.com/?p=2731</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Michael Shermer reviews Lisa Randall&#8217;s <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/006172372X/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&#38;tag=skepticcom-20&#38;linkCode=as2&#38;camp=217145&#38;creative=399373&#38;creativeASIN=006172372X"><em>Knocking on Heaven&#8217;s Door: How Physics and Scientific Thinking Illuminate the Universe and the Modern World</em></a> (Ecco, 2011), a book in which Randall attempts &#8220;the herculean task of explaining to us uninitiated the daunting science of theoretical particle physics.&#8221; This review was originally published in the November 2011 issue of <a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/"><em>Science</em> magazine</a>. ]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p class="reviewed">A review of Lisa Randall&#8217;s <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/006172372X/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;tag=skepticcom-20&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;camp=217145&amp;creative=399373&amp;creativeASIN=006172372X"><em>Knocking on Heaven&#8217;s Door: How Physics and Scientific Thinking Illuminate the Universe and the Modern World</em></a> (Ecco, 2011).</p>
<div class="imagefloatright" style="margin-top: 10px;">
	<a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/006172372X/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&#038;tag=michaelshermercom-20&#038;linkCode=as2&#038;camp=1789&#038;creative=390957&#038;creativeASIN=006172372X" title="Order the book from Amazon"><img src="http://www.michaelshermer.com/writing/wp-content/uploads/knocking-on-heavens-door-cover.jpg" alt="Knocking on Heaven&#8217;s Door (book cover)" width="200" height="278" class="cover" /></a>
<p class="caption"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/006172372X/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&#038;tag=michaelshermercom-20&#038;linkCode=as2&#038;camp=1789&#038;creative=390957&#038;creativeASIN=006172372X" title="Order the book from Amazon">Order the book from Amazon</a> </p>
</div>
<p>
	LISA RANDALL HAS BEEN JUSTLY APPRAISED by <em>Time</em> magazine as one of the &#8220;100 most influential people in the world&#8221; for her work in theoretical particle physics. From her position at Harvard University, she often travels: to the European Laboratory for Particle Physics, CERN, in Switzerland, where her theories are being put to the test in the Large Hadron Collider (LHC); to speaking engagements with professional and public audiences about her work in particular and the awe and wonder of science in general; and to rock formations where her chalked fingers can find ways to defy gravity. On the side, she writes popular books, such as her acclaimed <em>Warped Passages</em><sup><a href="#note01">1</a></sup>.
</p>
<p>
	In <em>Knocking on Heaven&#8217;s Door</em>, Randall picks up the story from where she left off when the LHC was years away from first collision, expanding her horizon from, as she poetically puts it, &#8220;what&#8217;s so small to you is so large to me&#8221; to &#8220;what&#8217;s so large to you is so small to me.&#8221; In other words, the book ranges from the smallest known particles to the entire bubble universe, from 10<sup>&minus;35</sup> meters (the Planck length, where quantum gravity rules) to 10<sup>27</sup> meters (the entire visible universe, 100 billion light-years across, where dark matter and dark energy dominate), a stunning 62 orders of magnitude. (Randall correctly notes the age of the universe at 13.75 billion years, clarifying her apparently paradoxical figure of 100 billion light-years thusly: &#8220;The reason the universe as a whole is bigger than the distance a signal could have traveled given its age is that space itself has expanded.&#8221; She unpacks that sentence in the book.)<span id="more-2731"></span>
</p>
<p>
	At the time of this writing, eBooks occupy about 20 percent of sales space; that is, one out of every five books sold has no cover or binding save the faux effects offered digitally by the various eBook readers. Of late, however, a tiny and growing sliver of the pie is being carved out by audio books (primarily through Audible.com and iTunes), most unabridged and read by professional actors and readers. These provide a welcome alternative to those of us yoked to our iPods and MP3 players inside cars and gyms or on bicycles and hiking trails. Since fumbling around with cassette tapes and Sony Walkmans in the early 1980s, I have consumed on the order of 500- plus nonfiction audio books, so a measure of an author&#8217;s skill to communicate complex material clear enough to penetrate a multitasking cortex has become a mark of quality (or lack thereof). Many are called. Few are chosen. Randall&#8217;s explanatory prose places her among the elect. She is not alone, but she is rare among the many who have attempted the herculean task of explaining to us uninitiated the daunting science of theoretical particle physics. She devotes most of <em>Knocking on Heaven&#8217;s Door</em> to covering this science, along the way offering fascinating accounts of how the LHC was built, how the experiments are run, and, most notably, the engineering prestidigitation involved in teasing out nature&#8217;s secrets via energies never before witnessed on Earth.
</p>
<p>
	The book&#8217;s subtitle hints that it may be yet another long and tiresome treatise on science and religion, with either convoluted (and ultimately failed) attempts at conciliation or pugnacious left hooks and fast jabs at the faithful. Neither are Randall&#8217;s modus operandi. She states her case succinctly and moves on. Stephen Jay Gould&#8217;s &#8220;nonoverlapping magisteria,&#8221; for example, would work if only religions would stick to doing what they do best (providing aid and comfort to the poor and needy). However, conflicts arise the moment &#8220;religions attempt to address the external reality of the universe.&#8221; When they do, Randall notes, &#8220;[t]his leaves religious views open to falsification. When science encroaches on domains of knowledge that religion attempts to explain, disagreements are bound to arise.&#8221; As science expands its realm, the magisteria are becoming ever more overlapping. The deeper problem, however, is that if divine providence were on the offing, &#8220;it is inconceivable from a scientific perspective that God could continue to intervene without introducing some material trace of his actions.&#8221; In other words, if God did act in the world scientists would want to know how he did it. &#8220;Did He apply a force or transfer energy?&#8221; Randall asks rhetorically. &#8220;Is God manipulating electrical processes in our brains? &#8230; On a larger level, if God gives purpose to the universe, how does He apply His will?&#8221; Inquiring minds want to know. Religion has no answer. I know because I have asked many times.
</p>
<p>
	Another myth Randall thankfully busts is the notion of truth and beauty in science. What can a &#8220;beautiful truth&#8221; in science possibly mean? Take a look at a page of equations and formulas from a recent theoretical physics paper. Mind-boggling to the untrained maybe, complicated and detailed undoubtedly, surprising or inspiring occasionally, but beautiful? &#8220;Beauty is often agreed on only a posteriori,&#8221; Randall explains, although she adds the proviso &#8220;even though aesthetic criteria for science might be poorly defined, they are nonetheless useful and omnipresent. They help guide our research, even if they provide no guarantee of success or truth.&#8221; Considering weak interactions, which violate parity symmetry, she remarks, &#8220;The breaking of such a fundamental symmetry as left-right equivalence seems innately disturbing and unattractive. Yet this very asymmetry is what is responsible for the range of masses we see in the world, which is in turn necessary for structure and life.&#8221;
</p>
<p>
	<em>Knocking on Heaven&#8217;s Door</em> came out before the faster-than-light neutrino experiment was announced<sup><a href="#note02">2</a></sup> and paraded through the press as an ostensible refutation of Einstein, implying in some circles that science is nothing more than one failed theory after another. Why thence should we believe anything scientists say about evolution, global warming, or vaccines? Randall ends her book with a thoughtful discussion of how science really works to resolve anomalies unexplained by the prevailing paradigm. Einstein did not overturn Newton; he just expanded on the physical properties of the universe at high speed and large scale. If you want to get a spacecraft to the moon, Newton will take you there. As flawed as it sometimes can be, science is still the most reliable tool ever devised for understanding the world. Few have captured this essence better than Randall in <em>Knocking on Heaven&#8217;s Door</em>.
</p>
<div id="endMatter">
<h5>
		References &amp; Notes<br />
	</h5>
<ol>
<li id="note01">
			L. Randall, <em>Warped Passages: Unraveling the Universe&#8217;s Hidden Dimensions</em> (Allen Lane, London, 2005); reviewed in (<a href="#note03">3</a>).
		</li>
<li id="note02">
			<a href="http://arxiv.org/abs/1109.4897">http://arxiv.org/abs/1109.4897</a>.
		</li>
<li id="note03">
			J. D. Wells, <em>Science</em> 311, 40 (2006).
		</li>
</ol>
</div>
<p class="footnote">This review was originally published in the November 2011 issue of <a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/"><em>Science</em> magazine</a>. </p>
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		<title>What’s God Got to Do With It?</title>
		<link>http://www.skepticblog.org/2011/11/15/whats-god-got-to-do-with-it/</link>
		<comments>http://www.skepticblog.org/2011/11/15/whats-god-got-to-do-with-it/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 Nov 2011 09:00:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael Shermer</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[SkepticBlog]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[religion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[science]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.skepticblog.org/?p=16022</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Michael Shermer chimes in on the House of Representatives voting last week by a margin of 396-9 to reaffirm as the national motto the phrase “In God We Trust.” God may be invoked in the national motto, but He has nothing to do with why Americans are free and secure…]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h4>He may be invoked in the national motto, but God has nothing to do with why Americans are free and secure</h4>
<p class="note">This op-ed was originally published in the <a href="http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-shermer-god-20111104,0,877363.story"><em>Los Angeles Times</em></a>, Friday November 4, 2011.
</p>
<p>The House of Representatives voted last week by a margin of 396–9 to reaffirm as the national motto the phrase “In God We Trust,” and encouraged its pronouncement on public buildings and continued printing on the coin of the realm. The motto was made official in 1956 during the height of Cold War hysteria over godless communism and—in the words of Brig. Gen. Jack D. Ripper in Stanley Kubrick’s and Peter Sellers’ 1964 classic antiwar film <a href="http://click.linksynergy.com/fs-bin/stat?id=NPWZsaxViDE&amp;offerid=146261&amp;type=3&amp;subid=0&amp;tmpid=1826&amp;RD_PARM1=http%253A%252F%252Fitunes.apple.com%252Fus%252Fmovie%252Fdr.-strangelove-or-how-i-learned%252Fid263616854%253Fuo%253D4%2526partnerId%253D30"><em>Dr. Strangelove</em></a>—“Communist infiltration, Communist indoctrination, Communist subversion and the international Communist conspiracy to sap and impurify all of our precious bodily fluids.”</p>
<p>As risible a reason as this was for knocking out a few bricks in the wall separating state and church, it was at least understandable in the context of the times. But today, with no communist threats and belief in God or a universal spirit among Americans still holding strong at about 90%, <a href="http://www.gallup.com/poll/147887/Americans-Continue-Believe-God.aspx">according to a 2011 Gallup Poll</a>, what is the point of having this motto? The answer is in the wording of the resolution voted on: “Whereas if religion and morality are taken out of the marketplace of ideas, the very freedom on which the United States was founded cannot be secured.”<span id="more-16022"></span></p>
<p>What is troubling—and should trouble any enlightened citizen of a modern nation such as ours — is the implication that in this age of science and technology, computers and cyberspace, and liberal democracies securing rights and freedoms for oppressed peoples all over the globe, that anyone could still hold to the belief that religion has a monopoly on morality and that the foundation of trust is based on engraving four words on brick and paper.</p>
<p>If you think that God is watching over the United States, please ask yourself why he glanced away during 9/11 (why not divert those planes and save those innocent people?), or why he chose to abandon the good folks of New Orleans during Hurricane Katrina (surely an omnipotent deity could hold back the flood waters as surely as he unleashed them on Noah’s generation), and why he continues to allow earthquakes and cancers to strike down even blameless children. The problem of evil—why bad things happen to good people if an all powerful and all good god is in control of things—has haunted the faithful since it was first articulated millennia ago with nigh a solution on the horizon. </p>
<p>It’s time to drop the god talk and face reality with a steely-eyed visage of the modern understanding of the origin of freedom on which the United States was founded and continues to be secured. God has nothing to do with it. If you want freedom and security you need the following: </p>
<p>The rule of law; property rights; a secure and trustworthy banking and monetary system; economic stability; a reliable infrastructure and the freedom to move about the country; freedom of the press; freedom of association; education for the masses; protection of civil liberties; a clean and safe environment; a robust military for protection of our liberties from attacks by other states; a potent police force for protection of our freedoms from attacks by people within the state; a viable legislative system for establishing fair and just laws; and an effective judicial system for the equitable enforcement of those fair and just laws.</p>
<p>With these in place the citizens of a nation feel free and secure. Why? The answer is in the final word of the motto: Trust. Claremont Graduate University economist Paul Zak has studied trust between nations and found that the more of these components that are in place, the more citizens trust one another. Zak even computed the differences in living standards that trust can affect, demonstrating that a 15% increase in the proportion of people in a country who think others are trustworthy raises income per person by 1% per year for every year thereafter. For example, increasing levels of trust in the U.S. from its current 36% to 51% would raise the average income for every man, woman and child in the country by $400 per year or $30,000 lifetime. Trust pays.</p>
<p>Trust has fiscal benefits that are derived through specific political and economic policies that have nothing whatsoever to do with religion or belief in God. Despite a strong belief in God, the percentage of Americans who believe that &#8220;religion can answer all or most of today&#8217;s problems&#8221; has plummeted from 82% to 58%, while those who believe that &#8220;religion is old-fashioned and out of date&#8221; leaped from 7% to 28%, <a href="http://www.gallup.com/poll/128276/Increasing-Number-No-Religious-Identity.aspx">according to a 2010 Gallup Poll</a>. Thus it would seem that Americans are more aware today than a half century ago that it’s up to us to secure our freedom through enlightened secular policies with practical social applications rather than faith-based hope in empty mottos reflecting an era gone by. </p>
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		<title>Skepticism 101: A Call for Course Syllabuses from Those Teaching  Skeptical Courses</title>
		<link>http://www.skepticblog.org/2011/08/30/skepticism101/</link>
		<comments>http://www.skepticblog.org/2011/08/30/skepticism101/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Aug 2011 09:00:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael Shermer</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[SkepticBlog]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[science]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[skepticism]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.skepticblog.org/?p=15223</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[TO ALL TEACHERS AND PROFESSORS who are teaching courses in skepticism, critical thinking, science and pseudoscience, science and the paranormal, science studies, history or philosophy of science, the psychology of paranormal beliefs, religious studies, and the like&#8230; Please <a href="mailto:skepticism101@skeptic.com"><strong>send us</strong></a> your course syllabuses, reading lists, video/YouTube links, classroom demonstration ideas, student projects and experiments, research project ideas, and the like.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>
	TO ALL TEACHERS AND PROFESSORS who are teaching courses in skepticism, critical thinking, science and pseudoscience, science and the paranormal, science studies, history or philosophy of science, the psychology of paranormal beliefs, religious studies, and the like&#8230;
</p>
<p>
	Please <a href="http://www.skepticblog.org/2011/08/30/skepticism101/&#109;&%2397;&%23105;&%23108;&%23116;&%23111;&%2358;&%23115;&%23107;&%23101;&%23112;&%23116;&%23105;&%2399;&%23105;&%23115;&%23109;&%2349;&%2348;&%2349;&%2364;&%23115;&%23107;&%23101;&%23112;&%23116;&%23105;&%2399;&%2346;&%2399;&%23111;&%23109;"><strong>send us</strong></a> your course syllabuses, reading lists, video/YouTube links, classroom demonstration ideas, student projects and experiments, research project ideas, and the like to my graduate student Anondah Saide. I want to add them to my own <a href="http://www.skeptic.com/downloads/Skepticism101-How-to-Think-Like-a-Scientist.pdf" title="Download the Skepticism 101 Course Syllabus PDF" onclick="javascript: pageTracker._trackPageview('/downloads/Skepticism101');"><strong>course syllabus on Skepticism 101</strong></a>, and create an online <strong>Skeptical Studies Program</strong> at Skeptic.com for teachers and professors everywhere to go to in a creative commons/open source system so that we can build a new academic field going forward with skepticism into academia.<span id="more-15223"></span>
</p>
<p>
	I know that such courses are being taught around the world because for the past two decades of publishing <em>Skeptic</em> magazine and writing skeptical books, I receive a lot of mail from teachers and professors seeking permission to use our materials.
</p>
<p>
	What I would like to do is to create academic departments of Skeptical Studies, as the next step in the skeptical movement. (See, for example, Phil Zuckerman&#8217;s program of <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/08/us/08secular.html?_r=3&amp;ref=todayspaper"><strong>Secular Studies</strong></a> he is implementing this year at Pitzer College in Claremont, where I teach a graduate course in the spring. We have magazines and journals, trade books and conferences. The next step is a more organized penetration into academia via courses, textbooks, departments, and the like. I want to create a clearing house, an open-source site for people to access materials that will be made available to create your own course in Skeptical Studies, such as Skepticism 101: syllabuses, books, articles, assignments, videos, demonstrations, experiments, research projects, and the like. I am envisioning something along the lines of how psychology became an academic field a century ago.
</p>
<p>
	To start the process off I share with you <a href="http://www.skeptic.com/downloads/Skepticism101-How-to-Think-Like-a-Scientist.pdf" title="Download the Skepticism 101 Course Syllabus PDF" onclick="javascript: pageTracker._trackPageview('/downloads/Skepticism101');"><strong>my own course syllabus for Skepticism 101</strong></a>, which I am teaching this semester starting this week at Chapman University on Tuesdays from 4&#8211;7pm with 36 freshman, the future of the skeptical movement!
</p>
<p><a href="http://www.skeptic.com/downloads/Skepticism101-How-to-Think-Like-a-Scientist.pdf" title="Download the Skepticism 101 Course Syllabus PDF" onclick="javascript: pageTracker._trackPageview('/downloads/Skepticism101');" class="button"> Download Shermer&#8217;s Course Syllabus for Skepticism 101 </a></p>
<p><a href="http://www.skepticblog.org/2011/08/30/skepticism101/&#109;&%2397;&%23105;&%23108;&%23116;&%23111;&%2358;&%23115;&%23107;&%23101;&%23112;&%23116;&%23105;&%2399;&%23105;&%23115;&%23109;&%2349;&%2348;&%2349;&%2364;&%23115;&%23107;&%23101;&%23112;&%23116;&%23105;&%2399;&%2346;&%2399;&%23111;&%23109;" class="button">Email Us Your Ideas</a></p>
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		<title>Flowers for Nim</title>
		<link>http://www.skepticblog.org/2011/07/26/flowers-for-nim/</link>
		<comments>http://www.skepticblog.org/2011/07/26/flowers-for-nim/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 26 Jul 2011 09:00:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael Shermer</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[SkepticBlog]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Shermer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[science]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://skepticblog.org/?p=14767</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Michael Shermer reviews the new documentary film <em>Project Nim</em> (by James Marsh), about the attempt to teach sign language to the chimpanzee Nim Chimpsky.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div style="margin: 20px auto; width: 580px;"><a href="http://trailers.apple.com/trailers/independent/projectnim/" title="Watch the movie trailer"><img src="http://skepticblog.org/wp-content/uploads/project-nim-banner.jpg" alt="Project Nim film trailer ad from Apple.com" width="570" height="327" class="alignnone boxShadow size-full wp-image-14774" /></a></div>
<p>When I was in a psychology graduate program in the late 1970s, the nature v. nurture debate was in full-throated either-or mode, with crudely conceived experiments and data sets marshaled to defend one side or the other, as if asking whether π or r<sup>2</sup> is more important in calculating the area of a circle. (Thankfully this debate today has morphed into much more sophisticated research by behavioral geneticists and others to understand how nature and nurture interact, well summarized in Steven Pinker’s <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0142003344/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&#38;tag=skepticcom-20&%2338;linkCode=as2&%2338;camp=217145&%2338;creative=399369&%2338;creativeASIN=0142003344"><em>The Blank Slate</em></a> and Matt Ridley’s <em>Nature via Nurture</em>.) In addition to the studies examining twins separated at birth and raised in separate environments, I recall that raising chimpanzees in a human environment and trying to teach them sign language garnered considerable media attention as pioneering research into understanding the nature of human (and primate) nature, along with language and cognition. These were heady times of bold experimentation, the most prominent being <em>Project Nim</em>, initiated and monitored by Columbia University psychologist Herbert Terrace. Terrace in particular wanted to test MIT linguist Noam Chomsky’s then controversial theory that there is an inherited universal grammar that is the basis to language and unique to humans, by teaching our closest primate cousin American Sign Language (ASL). Terrace, however, did a turnabout, concluding that the signs Nim Chimpsky (a cheeky nod to Noam Chomsky) learned from his human companions and trainers amounted to little more than animal begging, more sophisticated perhaps than Skinner’s rats and pigeons pressing bars and pecking keys, but in principle not so different from what dogs and cats do to beg for food, be let outside, etc.—a “Clever Hans” effect in primates. His 1979 book, <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0231063415/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&#38;tag=skepticcom-20&%2338;linkCode=as2&%2338;camp=217145&%2338;creative=399373&%2338;creativeASIN=0231063415"><em>Nim</em></a>, outlines the project and his assessment of its results. There have been many evaluations and critiques since that time, most recently by Elizabeth Hess in her 2008 book, <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0553382772/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&#38;tag=skepticcom-20&%2338;linkCode=as2&%2338;camp=217145&%2338;creative=399369&%2338;creativeASIN=0553382772"><em>Nim Chimpsky: The Chimp Who Would Be Human</em></a> (Bantam Books), which is the basis of the new documentary film, <a href="http://trailers.apple.com/trailers/independent/projectnim/" title="Watch the movie trailer"><em>Project Nim</em></a>, by James Marsh (whose previous film, <a href="http://click.linksynergy.com/fs-bin/stat?id=NPWZsaxViDE&#38;offerid=146261&%2338;type=3&%2338;subid=0&%2338;tmpid=1826&%2338;RD_PARM1=http%253A%252F%252Fitunes.apple.com%252Fus%252Fmovie%252Fman-on-wire%252Fid295525878%253Fuo%253D4%2526partnerId%253D30"><em>Man on Wire</em></a>, is portrays the tightrope walker Philippe Petit).<span id="more-14767"></span></p>
<p><em>Project Nim</em> is a dramatic and disturbing critique of Terrace’s research and the treatment of Nim that also serves as something of an indictment of the entire enterprise of animal behavioral research. Having worked in an animal lab for two years training rats and pigeons in Skinner boxes, I was deeply moved by the perspective several decades have brought to what we were doing to animals back then in the name of science. There is, however, next to no science presented in this film, and perhaps that is the way it should be because how that data was collected was, by today’s standard, so sloppy as to be virtually worthless, or at the very least morally questionable.  </p>
<p>It is with some irony that Nim spent the remainder of his post-experimental life at the Black Beauty Ranch in Texas, because <em>Project Nim</em> is, on one level, presented from his perspective, through the eyes (often tearing up) and voices (often cracking) of his trainers and handlers. Nim was ripped from the arms of his mother at only a few weeks old. As he was the seventh of her children to be so seized she had to be tranquilized and grabbed quickly so that she did not accidentally smother her baby that she clutched to her chest in motherly love and protection, as she collapsed on the floor. Stop right there. Five minutes into the film and I’m already wondering what science tells us about the effects on a mother of having her seven children stolen from her arms. </p>
<p>Marsh’s film shuttles between talking-head interviews with all the major players in the project (including Terrace himself) and original footage shot throughout the experiment. Nim began his childhood in an upper west side brownstone New York apartment surrounded by human siblings in the mildly dysfunctional LaFarge family spearheaded by Stephanie, who breast-fed Nim and, as he got older, allowed him to explore her nakedness even as he put himself between his adopted mother and her poet husband in an Oedipal scene right out of Freud. Just as Nim grew into his new family, surrounded by fun-loving human siblings and days filled with games and hugs, Terrace realized that scientists were not going to take him seriously because there was next to no science going on in this free-love home. (According to one of the trainers, there were no lab manuals, no diaries, no data sheets, no recordings of progress, and no one in the family even knew how to sign ASL!) So for a second time in his young life Nim was wrenched from his mother and placed into a more controlled environment in the form of a sprawling home owned by Columbia University. There a string of trainers carefully monitored Nim’s progress in learning ASL, making daily trips to a lab at the university where Terrace could control all intervening variables in a manner not dissimilar to a Skinner box. There some halting progress was made, but Nim was clearly not enamored at being shuttled back and forth between the Disneylandesque environment of home and the sterile environment of the lab, and it is unclear whether his lack of significant progress was the result of cognitive shortcomings or simian protest.</p>
<p>In due time Nim grew into his teenage years, and as most testosterone-fueled male primates are wont to do, he became more assertive, then aggressive, then potentially dangerous in his evolved propensity to test his fellow primates for hierarchical status in the social pecking order. The problem is that adult chimpanzees are 5-10 times stronger than humans. In other words, Nim became a threat. As one of the trainers said while pointing to a scar on her arm that required 37 stitches: “You can’t give human nurturing to an animal that could kill you.” After several of these biting incidents that sent trainers and handlers to the hospital, including one woman who had part of her cheek ripped open, Terrace pulled the plug on the experiment and therewith shipped Nim back to the research lab in Oklahoma from whence he came. Tranquilized into unconsciousness, Nim went to sleep surrounded by loving human caretakers on a sprawling estate in New York and awoke in a grey-bar cold steel cage in Oklahoma. </p>
<p>Having never seen another member of his species Nim was understandably anxious and scared at the sight of grunting, hooting male chimps eager to let the youngster know his place in the pecking order. I imagined that it must have been something like being tossed into a maximum-security prison with muscle-bound, tattoo-hardened murderers and rapists looking at you like fresh meat to be pounded on. As a result, Nim slipped into a deep depression, losing weight and refusing to eat. A year later Terrace visited Nim, who greeted him eagerly and expressed himself in a manner that Terrace himself described as signaling to get him out of this hell hole. Instead, Terrace took off the next day for home and Nim slid back into a depression. Some time later he was sold to a pharmaceutical animal-testing laboratory managed by New York University where Hepatitis B vaccinations were tested on our nearest primate relatives. Footage of a tranquilized chimp being pulled out of and stuffed back into a steel-barred cage barely big enough to turn around was sickening to watch. The emotional impact of the visual imagery left me to imagine what Nim would have signed to Professor Terrace had his vocabulary developed into fully human with the necessary colorful language for emotional expression appropriate for the situation: “Screw you Herb Terrace, you traitorous back-stabbing, low-life scumbag. You took me from my mother and my species. You robbed me of my simian childhood. You gave me a new mother then took her away from me just as I grew attached. You used me and abused me in the name of bogus science to further your own career, and when I protested you sold me off like so much raw meat. How about we put you into this hell-hole environment, lock you up behind bars, feed you crappy food, and make you sleep in your own piss and shit and see how you like it?”</p>
<p>In reality, no chimp has such verbal language, but violent incidents between chimps and humans and research on chimpanzees in the wild enables us to imagine what Nim would have done to Terrace given the opportunity and awareness of his ultimate responsibility for Nim’s fate: Nim would likely have torn off his face, ripped open his neck, eaten his genitals, and left him for dead in seconds. At least that is what this film evokes in emotional desire for revenge on Nim’s behalf. To be fair, the trainers and handlers come across as caring, loving people who did the best they could under the circumstances, but they had little say in the long-term course of Nim’s existence. Terrace, by contrast, who ran the show and called the shots, comes across as an almost psychopathic manipulator, an alpha male egotist who, in his own words on camera, spoke of Nim’s suffering in cold clinical language, saw absolutely nothing scientifically objectionable to employing mostly young nubile graduate students, most of whom he bedded during the research project then dispensed with before moving on to the next conquest. I realize that this was the free-love 1970s in which professors and students often conducted research between the sheets, but even by those standards Terrace appears to be the very embodiment of moral turpitude. </p>
<p>Momentarily, Terrace partially redeemed himself in my eyes when he admitted that the data he collected changed his mind on the nature-nurture debate—since Nim did not even remotely approach the complexity of language or cognition of humans, Chomsky was probably right. What a rare treat to hear a scientist say, “I was wrong.” But after thinking about it for a day I came to the conclusion that even this might have been nothing more than a way of reducing cognitive dissonance for how Nim’s life turned out. If Nim is human like, then the subhuman treatment of him becomes criminal. But if Nim is little more than a rat or pigeon, merely begging for food and favors like a lowly dog, then shipping him off to a research lab to live out his life in a cold steel cage perhaps doesn’t seem so deplorable. Sadly, there was no Shawshank redemption for Nim. But thanks to this film we can at least put flowers on his metaphorical grave.</p>
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		<title>Gambling on ET</title>
		<link>http://www.skepticblog.org/2011/07/19/gambling-on-et/</link>
		<comments>http://www.skepticblog.org/2011/07/19/gambling-on-et/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 19 Jul 2011 09:00:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael Shermer</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[SkepticBlog]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[extra-terrestrials]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[science]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SETI]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[skepticism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[UFOs]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://skepticblog.org/?p=14612</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Michael Shermer asks, &#8220;Is there some metric we can use to calculate the odds that claims of extraterrestrial life discovery are real and reliable? There is&#8230;]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h4>How to compute the odds that claims of extraterrestrial life discovery are real and reliable</h4>
<p>The Search for Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence (SETI) has to be the most interesting field of science that lacks a subject to study. Yet. Keep searching. In the meantime, is there some metric we can apply to calculating the probability and impact of claims of such a discovery? There is. </p>
<p>In January, 2011 the <em>Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society</em> published 17 articles addressing the matter of “The Detection of Extra-Terrestial Life and the Consequences for Science and Society,” including one by Iván Almár from the Hungarian Academy of Sciences and Margaret S. Race from the SETI Institute, introducing a metric “to provide a scalar assessment of the scientific importance, validity and potential risks associated with putative evidence of ET life discovered on Earth, on nearby bodies in the Solar System or in our Galaxy.” Such scaling is common in science—the Celsius scale for temperature, the Beaufort scale for wind speed, the Saffir-Simpson scale for hurricane strength, and the Richter scale for earthquake magnitude. But these scales, Almár and Race argue, fail to take into account “the relative position of the observer or recipient of information.” The effects of a 7.1 earthquake, for example, depends on the proximity of its epicenter to human habitations.<span id="more-14612"></span></p>
<p>An improvement may be found in the Torino Scale that computes the likelihood of an asteroid impact <em>and</em> the risk of its potential damage—from 1, a near miss with no danger, to 10, certain impact with catastrophic consequences. But Almár and Race note that “the scale does not include any consideration of the observations’ reliability.” Building on SETI’s Rio Scale for evaluating the effect on society of an ET discovery, Almár and Race propose the London Scale that multiplies <em>Q</em> x δ, where <em>Q</em> (scientific importance) is the sum of four parameters:</p>
<ul>
<li><em>life form</em> (1–5, from Earth-similar life to completely alien),</li>
<li><em> nature of evidence</em> (1-6, from indirect biomarkers <br /> to obviously organized complex life),</li>
<li><em>type of method of discovery</em> (1–5, from remote sensing <br />  to return mission sample), and</li>
<li><em>distance</em> (1–4, from beyond the Solar System to on Earth).</li>
</ul>
<p>This sum is then multiplied by δ (a reliability factor) ranging from 0.1–0.5, from probably not real to highly reliable. The maximum <em>Q</em> can be is 20 x .5 = 10. </p>
<p>For example, Almár and Race compute the odds that the Allan Hills 84001 Martian meteorite contains alien life as (2+2+4+4)0.3 = 3.6 for scientific importance and credibility, noting that “several scientific counter-arguments have been published and the discovery has not been generally accepted.” I would assess the recent claim of arsenic-based life in Mono Lake as (2+1+4+4)0.2 = 2.2, fairly low by comparison.</p>
<p>Such scientific scales attempt to bring some rigor and reliability to estimates of events that are highly improbable or uncertain. The process also reveals why most scientists do not take seriously UFO claims. Although the first two categories would yield a 5 and a 6 (completely alien and complex life) and its distance is zero (4, on Earth), the method of discovery is highly subjective (perceptual, psychological) and open to alternative explanation (1, other aerial phenomena) and the reliability factor δ is either obviously fake or fraudulent (0) or probably not real (0.1), and so <em>Q</em> = (5+6+1+4)0.1 = 1.6 (or 0 if δ = 0). </p>
<p>The Phoenix lights UFO claim, for example, was a real aerial phenomena witnessed by thousands on the evening of March 13, 1997. UFOlogists (and even Arizona governor Fife Symington) claim it was extraterrestrial, but what is δ for this event? It turns out that there were two independent aerial events that night, the first a group of planes flying in a “V” formation at 8:30 that started a UFO hysteria and brought people outdoors with video cameras, which then recorded a string of lights at 10:00 that slowly sank until they disappeared behind a nearby mountain range. These turned out to be flares dropped by the Air National Guard on a training mission. Ever since, people have conflated the two events and thereby transmogrified two IFOs into one UFO. So δ = 0 and <em>Q</em> shifts from 1.6 to 0, which is how much confidence I have in UFOlogists until they produce actual physical evidence, the <em>sine qua non</em> of science.</p>
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		<item>
		<title>Demographics of Belief</title>
		<link>http://www.skepticblog.org/2011/05/31/demographics-of-belief/</link>
		<comments>http://www.skepticblog.org/2011/05/31/demographics-of-belief/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 31 May 2011 09:00:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael Shermer</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[SkepticBlog]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[belief]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[conspiracies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ghosts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[God]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Shermer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[neuroscience]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[science]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Believing Brain]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://skepticblog.org/?p=13362</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This excerpt is from the Prologue of Michael Shermer's new book, <em>The Believing Brain</em>. The Prologue is entitled "I Want to Believe."]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p class="note">
	The following excerpt is from the Prologue to my new book, <a href="http://www.skeptic.com/productlink/b144HB" title="Order the hardcover book from shop.skeptic.com"><em>The Believing Brain: From Ghosts, Gods, and Aliens to Conspiracies, Economics, and Politics&#8212;How the Brain Constructs Beliefs and Reinforces Them as Truths</em></a>. The Prologue is entitled &#8220;I Want to Believe.&#8221; The book synthesizes 30 years of research to answer the questions of how and why we believe what we do in all aspects of our lives, from our suspicions and superstitions to our politics, economics, and social beliefs. <a href="http://www.skeptic.com/productlink/b144HB" title="Learn more about The Believing Brain">LEARN MORE about the book.</a>
</p>
<div style="float: right; width: 256px; margin: 10px 0 10px 20px;">
	<a href="http://www.skeptic.com/productlink/b144HB" title="Order the hardcover from shop.skeptic.com"><img src="http://skepticblog.org/wp-content/uploads/BelievingBrainCover.png" alt="The Believing Brain (book cover)" width="250" height="377" /></a> </p>
<p class="caption">
		<a href="http://www.skeptic.com/productlink/b144HB" title="Order the hardcover from shop.skeptic.com">Order the hardcover from shop.skeptic.com</a>
	</p>
</div>
<p>
	According to a <a href="http://www.harrisinteractive.com/vault/Harris_Poll_2009_12_15.pdf">2009 Harris Poll</a> of 2,303 adult Americans, when people are asked to &#8220;Please indicate for each one if you believe in it, or not,&#8221; the following results were revealing:<a href="http://www.skepticblog.org/2011/05/31/demographics-of-belief/#note01"><sup>1</sup></a>
</p>
<ul>
<li>
		82% believe in God
	</li>
<li>
		76% believe in miracles
	</li>
<li>
		75% believe in Heaven
	</li>
<li>
		73% believe in Jesus is God <br />
		or the Son of God
	</li>
<li>
		72% believe in angels
	</li>
<li>
		71% believe in survival <br />
		of the soul after death
	</li>
<li>
		70% believe in the <br />
		resurrection of Jesus Christ
	</li>
<li>
		61% believe in hell
	</li>
<li>
		61% believe in <br />
		the virgin birth (of Jesus)
	</li>
<li>
		60% believe in the devil
	</li>
<li>
		45% believe in Darwin&#8217;s <br />
		Theory of Evolution
	</li>
<li>
		42% believe in ghosts
	</li>
<li>
		40% believe in creationism
	</li>
<li>
		32% believe in UFOs
	</li>
<li>
		26% believe in astrology
	</li>
<li>
		23% believe in witches
	</li>
<li>
		20% believe in reincarnation
	</li>
</ul>
<p>
	Wow. More people believe in angels and the devil than believe in the theory of evolution. That&#8217;s disturbing. And yet, such results should not surprise us as they match similar survey findings for belief in the paranormal conducted over the past several decades.<a href="http://www.skepticblog.org/2011/05/31/demographics-of-belief/#note02"><sup>2</sup></a> And it is not just Americans. The percentages of Canadians and Britons who hold such beliefs are nearly identical to those of Americans.<a href="http://www.skepticblog.org/2011/05/31/demographics-of-belief/#note03"><sup>3</sup></a> For example, a 2006 <em>Readers Digest</em> survey of 1,006 adult Britons reported that 43 percent said that they can read other people&#8217;s thoughts or have their thoughts read, more than half said that they have had a dream or premonition of an event that then occurred, more than two-thirds said they could feel when someone was looking at them, 26 percent said they had sensed when a loved-one was ill or in trouble, and 62 percent said that they could tell who was calling before they picked up the phone. In addition, a fifth said they had seen a ghost and nearly a third said they believe that Near-Death Experiences are evidence for an afterlife.<a href="http://www.skepticblog.org/2011/05/31/demographics-of-belief/#note04"><sup>4</sup></a><br />
<span id="more-13362"></span>
</p>
<p>
	Although the specific percentages of belief in the supernatural and the paranormal across countries and decades varies slightly, the numbers remain fairly consistent that the majority of people hold some form of paranormal or supernatural belief.<a href="http://www.skepticblog.org/2011/05/31/demographics-of-belief/#note05"><sup>5</sup></a> Alarmed by such figures, and concerned about the dismal state of science education and its role in fostering belief in the paranormal, the National Science Foundation (NSF) conducted its own extensive survey of beliefs in both the paranormal and pseudoscience, concluding with a plausible culprit in the creation of such beliefs:
</p>
<blockquote>
<p>
		Belief in pseudoscience, including astrology, extrasensory perception (ESP), and alien abductions, is relatively widespread and growing. For example, in response to the 2001 NSF survey, a sizable minority (41 percent) of the public said that astrology was at least somewhat scientific, and a solid majority (60 percent) agreed with the statement &#8220;some people possess psychic powers or ESP.&#8221; Gallup polls show substantial gains in almost every category of pseudoscience during the past decade. Such beliefs may sometimes be fueled by the media&#8217;s miscommunication of science and the scientific process.<a href="http://www.skepticblog.org/2011/05/31/demographics-of-belief/#note06"><sup>6</sup></a>
	</p>
</blockquote>
<p>
	I too would like to lay the blame at the feet of the media, or science education in general, because the fix then seems straightforward&#8212;just improve how we communicate and educate science. But that&#8217;s too easy. In any case, the NSF&#8217;s own data do not support it. Although belief in ESP decreased from 65% among high school graduates to 60% among college graduates, and belief in magnetic therapy dropped from 71% among high school graduates to 55% among college graduates, that still leaves over half of educated people fully endorsing such claims! And for embracing alternative medicine, the percentages actually <em>increased</em>, from 89% for high school grads to 92% for college grads.
</p>
<p>
	Perhaps a deeper cause may be found in another statistic: 70% of Americans still do not understand the scientific process, defined in the NSF study as grasping probability, the experimental method, and hypothesis testing. So one solution here is teaching <em>how science works</em> in addition to the rote memorization of scientific facts. A 2002 article in Skeptic magazine entitled &#8220;Science Education is No Guarantee of Skepticism,&#8221; presented the results of a study that found no correlation between science knowledge (facts about the world) and paranormal beliefs. The authors, W. Richard Walker, Steven J. Hoekstra, and Rodney J. Vogl, concluded: &#8220;Students that scored well on these [science knowledge] tests were no more or less skeptical of pseudoscientific claims than students that scored very poorly. Apparently, the students were not able to apply their scientific knowledge to evaluate these pseudoscientific claims. We suggest that this inability stems in part from the way that science is traditionally presented to students: Students are taught <em>what</em> to think but not <em>how</em> to think.&#8221;<a href="http://www.skepticblog.org/2011/05/31/demographics-of-belief/#note07"><sup>7</sup></a> The scientific method is a teachable concept, as evidenced in the NSF study that found that 53% of Americans with a high level of science education (nine or more high school and college science/math courses) understand the scientific process, compared to 38% with a middle level (six to eight such courses) of science education, and 17% with a low level (less than five such courses) of science education. So maybe the key to attenuating superstition and belief in the supernatural is in teaching how science works, not just what science has discovered. I have believed this myself for my entire career in science and education. If I didn&#8217;t believe it I might not have gone into the business of teaching, writing, and editing science in the first place.
</p>
<p>
	Alas, I have come to the conclusion that belief is largely immune to attack by direct educational tools, at least for those who are not ready to hear it. Belief change comes from a combination of personal psychological readiness and a deeper social and cultural shift in the underlying zeitgeist of the times, which is affected in part by education, but is more the product of larger and harder-to-define political, economic, religious, and social changes.
</p>
<p>
	<a href="http://www.skeptic.com/downloads/audiosample-Believing-Brain.mp3"><strong>DOWNLOAD</strong> my reading of the prologue (48MB MP3)</a> <br />
	<a href="http://twitter.com/michaelshermer"><strong>FOLLOW</strong> me on Twitter</a>
</p>
<div id="endMatter">
<h4>
		References<br />
	</h4>
<ol>
<li id="note01">
			<a href="http://www.harrisinteractive.com/vault/Harris_Poll_2009_12_15.pdf">www.harrisinteractive.com/vault/Harris_Poll_2009_12_15.pdf</a>
		</li>
<li id="note02">
<p>
				<a href="http://www.gallup.com/poll/16915/Three-Four-Americans-Believe-Paranormal.aspx">www.gallup.com/poll/16915/Three-Four-Americans-Believe-Paranormal.aspx</a>
			</p>
<p>
				Similar percentages of belief were found in this 2005 Gallup Poll:
			</p>
<table style="line-height: 12px; width: 350px;">
<tr>
<td style="text-align: right; padding-right: 10px;">Psychic or Spiritual Healing</td>
<td>55%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: right; padding-right: 10px;">Demon possession</td>
<td>42%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: right; padding-right: 10px;">ESP</td>
<td>41%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: right; padding-right: 10px;">Haunted Houses</td>
<td>37%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: right; padding-right: 10px;">Telepathy</td>
<td>31%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: right; padding-right: 10px;">Clairvoyance (know past/predict future)</td>
<td>26%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: right; padding-right: 10px;">Astrology</td>
<td>25%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: right; padding-right: 10px;">Psychics are able to talk to the dead</td>
<td>21%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: right; padding-right: 10px;">Reincarnation</td>
<td>20%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: right; padding-right: 10px;">Channeling spirits from the other side</td>
<td>9%</td>
</tr>
</table>
</li>
<li id="note03">
			<a href="http://www.gallup.com/poll/19558/Paranormal-Beliefs-Come-SuperNaturally-Some.aspx">www.gallup.com/poll/19558/Paranormal-Beliefs-Come-SuperNaturally-Some.aspx</a>
		</li>
<li id="note04">
			<a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/5017910.stm">news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/5017910.stm</a>
		</li>
<li id="note05">
			Gallup News Service. 2001. &#8220;Americans&#8217; Belief in Psychic Paranormal Phenomena is up Over Last Decade.&#8221; June 8.
		</li>
<li id="note06">
			National Science Foundation. 2002. Science Indicators Biennial Report. The section on pseudoscience, &#8220;Science Fiction and Pseudoscience,&#8221; is in Chapter 7. Science and Technology: Public Understanding and Public Attitudes. Go to: <a href="http://www.nsf.gov/sbe/srs/seind02/c7/c7h.htm">www.nsf.gov/sbe/srs/seind02/c7/c7h.htm</a>.
		</li>
<li id="note07">
			Walker, W. Richard, Steven J. Hoekstra, and Rodney J. Vogl. 2002. &#8220;Science Education is No Guarantee of Skepticism.&#8221; <a href="http://www.skeptic.com/the_magazine/archives/vol09n03.html"><em>Skeptic</em>, Vol. 9, No. 3</a>, 24&#8211;25.
		</li>
</ol>
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		<title>The Immortalist</title>
		<link>http://www.skepticblog.org/2011/04/19/the-immortalist/</link>
		<comments>http://www.skepticblog.org/2011/04/19/the-immortalist/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 19 Apr 2011 09:00:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael Shermer</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[SkepticBlog]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[immortality]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ray Kurzweil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[religion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[science]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Science and Medicine]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://skepticblog.org/?p=12615</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Michael Shermer reviews the movie <a href="http://click.linksynergy.com/fs-bin/stat?id=NPWZsaxViDE&#38;offerid=146261&#38;type=3&#38;subid=0&#38;tmpid=1826&#38;RD_PARM1=http%253A%252F%252Fitunes.apple.com%252Fus%252Fmovie%252Ftranscendent-man%252Fid418520110%253Fuo%253D4%2526partnerId%253D30" title="Rent it on iTunes"><em>Transcendent Man: A Film About the Life and Ideas of Ray Kurzweil</em></a>, produced by Barry Ptolemy and inspired by the book <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0143037889/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&#38;tag=skepticcom-20&#38;linkCode=as2&#38;camp=1789&#38;creative=390957&#38;creativeASIN=0143037889" title="Order the book from Amazon.com"><em>The Singularity is Near</em></a> by Ray Kurzweil.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p class="note">A Review of <a href="http://click.linksynergy.com/fs-bin/stat?id=NPWZsaxViDE&#38;offerid=146261&%2338;type=3&%2338;subid=0&%2338;tmpid=1826&%2338;RD_PARM1=http%253A%252F%252Fitunes.apple.com%252Fus%252Fmovie%252Ftranscendent-man%252Fid418520110%253Fuo%253D4%2526partnerId%253D30" title="Rent it on iTunes"><em>Transcendent Man: A Film About the Life and Ideas of Ray Kurzweil</em></a>. Produced by Barry Ptolemy, Music by Philip Glass, inspired by the book <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0143037889/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&#38;tag=skepticcom-20&%2338;linkCode=as2&%2338;camp=1789&%2338;creative=390957&%2338;creativeASIN=0143037889" title="Order the book from Amazon.com"><em>The Singularity is Near</em></a> by Ray Kurzweil. Digital release March 1, DVD release May 25.</p>
<p><a href="http://click.linksynergy.com/fs-bin/stat?id=NPWZsaxViDE&#38;offerid=146261&%2338;type=3&%2338;subid=0&%2338;tmpid=1826&%2338;RD_PARM1=http%253A%252F%252Fitunes.apple.com%252Fus%252Fmovie%252Ftranscendent-man%252Fid418520110%253Fuo%253D4%2526partnerId%253D30"><img src="http://skepticblog.org/wp-content/uploads/transcendent-man-cover.jpg" alt="cover" title="Click to order on iTunes" width="250" height="311" class="alignright size-full wp-image-12625" /></a></p>
<p>Beware the prophet who proclaims the end of the world, the apocalypse, doomsday, judgment day, the second coming, the resurrection, or the Biggest Thing to Happen to Humanity <em>ever</em> will happen in the prophet’s own lifetime. It is our natural inclination to assume that we are special and that our generation will witness the new dawn, but the Copernican Principle tells us that we are not special. Thus, the chances that even a science-based prophecy such as that proffered by the futurist, inventor, and scientistic visionary extraordinaire Ray Kurzweil—that by 2029 we will have the science and technology to live forever—is unlikely to be fulfilled. </p>
<p><a href="http://click.linksynergy.com/fs-bin/stat?id=NPWZsaxViDE&#38;offerid=146261&%2338;type=3&%2338;subid=0&%2338;tmpid=1826&%2338;RD_PARM1=http%253A%252F%252Fitunes.apple.com%252Fus%252Fmovie%252Ftranscendent-man%252Fid418520110%253Fuo%253D4%2526partnerId%253D30" title="Rent it on iTunes"><em>Transcendent Man</em></a> is Barry Ptolemy’s beautifully crafted and artfully edited documentary film about Kurzweil and his quest to save humanity. If you enjoy contemplating the Big Questions in Life from a scientific perspective, you will love this film. Accompanied by the eerily haunting music of Philip Glass who, appropriately enough, also scored Errol Morris’ film <a href="http://click.linksynergy.com/fs-bin/stat?id=NPWZsaxViDE&#38;offerid=146261&%2338;type=3&%2338;subid=0&%2338;tmpid=1826&%2338;RD_PARM1=http%253A%252F%252Fitunes.apple.com%252Fus%252Fmovie%252Fthe-fog-of-war%252Fid287670345%253Fuo%253D4%2526partnerId%253D30" title="Rent it on iTunes"><em>The Fog of War</em></a>—about another bigger-than-life character who thought he could mold the world through data-driven decisions, Robert McNamara—<em>Transcendent Man</em> pulls viewers in through Kurzweil’s visage of a future in which we merge with our machines and vastly extend our longevity and intelligence to the point where even death will be defeated. This point is what Kurzweil calls the “singularity” (inspired by the physics term denoting the infinitely dense point at the center of a black hole), and he arrives at the 2029 date by extrapolating curves based on what he calls the “law of accelerating returns.” This is “Moore’s Law” (the doubling of computing power every year) on steroids, applied to every conceivable area of science, technology and economics.<span id="more-12615"></span></p>
<p>Ptolemy’s portrayal of Kurzweil is unmistakably positive, but to his credit he includes several critics from both religion and science. From the former, a radio host named Chuck Missler, a born-again Christian who heads the Koinonia Institute (“dedicated to training and equipping the serious Christian to sojourn in today’s world”), proclaims: “We have a scenario laid out that the world is heading for an Armageddon and you and I are going to be the generation that’s alive that is going to see all this unfold.” He seems to be saying that Kurzweil is right about the second coming, but wrong about what it is that is coming. (Of course, Missler’s prognostication is the N+1 failed prophecy that began with Jesus himself, who told his followers (Mark 9:1): “Verily I say unto you, That there be some of them that stand here, which shall not taste of death, till they have seen the kingdom of God come with power.”) Another religiously-based admonition comes from the Stanford University neuroscientist William Huribut, who self-identifies as a “practicing Christian” who believes in immortality, but not in the way Kurzweil envisions it. “Death is conquered spiritually,” he pronounced.</p>
<p>On the science side of the ledger, Neil Gershenfeld, director of the Center for Bits and Atoms at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, sagely notes: “What Ray does consistently is to take a whole bunch of steps that everybody agrees on and take principles for extrapolating that everybody agrees on and show they lead to things that nobody agrees on.” Likewise, the estimable futurist Kevin Kelly, whose 2010 book <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0670022152/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&#38;tag=skepticcom-20&%2338;linkCode=as2&%2338;camp=1789&%2338;creative=390957&%2338;creativeASIN=0670022152" title="Order the book from Amazon.com"><em>What Technology Wants</em></a> paints a much more realistic portrait of what our futures may (or may not) hold, asks rhetorically “What happens in 40 years from now and Ray dies and doesn’t have his father back? What does all this mean? Was he wrong? Well, he was right about some things. But in my observation the precursors of those technologies that would have to exist simply are not here. Ray’s longing for this, his expectation, is heartwarming, but it isn’t going to happen.” Kelly agrees that Kurzweil’s exponential growth curves are accurate but that the conclusions and especially the inspiration drawn from them are not. “He seems to have no doubts about it and in this sense I think he is a prophetic type figure who is completely sure and nothing can waiver his absolute certainty about this. So I would say he is a modern day prophet…that’s wrong.” </p>
<p><em>Transcendent Man</em> is clearly meant to be an uplifting film celebrating all the ways science and technology have and are going to enrich our lives. I don’t know if it is the music or the cinematography or the subject himself, but I found <em>Transcendent Man</em> to be a sad film about a genius who has been in agony since the premature death of his father at age 58. Fredric Kurzweil was a professional musician who Ray’s mother says on camera was never around while his charge was growing up. Like father like son—Kurzweil’s own workaholic tendencies in his creation of over a dozen companies starting when he was 17 meant he never really knew his father. As the film portrays the tormented inventor, Kurzweil’s mission in life seems more focused on resurrecting his patriarch than rescuing humanity. </p>
<p>An especially lachrymose moment is when Kurzweil is rifling through his father’s journals and documents in a storage room dedicated to preserving his memory until the day that all this “data” (including Ray’s own fading memories) can be reconfigured into an A.I. simulacrum so that father and son can be reunited. Through heavy sighs and wistful looks Kurzweil comes off not as a proselytizer on a mission but as a man tormented. It is, in fact, the film’s leitmotif. In one scene Kurzweil is shown wiping away a tear at his father’s gravesite, in another he pauses over photographs and looks longingly at mementos, and in another cut at the beach Kurzweil recalls the day his father “uncharacteristically” phoned him just days before his death, as if he’d had a premonition. Although Kurzweil says he is optimistic and cheery about life, he can’t seem to stop talking about death: “It’s such a profoundly sad, lonely feeling that I really can’t bear it,” he admits. “So I go back to thinking about how I’m not going to die.” One wonders how much of life he is missing by over thinking death, or how burdensome it must surely be to imbibe over 200 supplement tables a day and have your blood tested and cleansed every couple of months, all in an effort to reprogram the body’s biochemistry.</p>
<p>There is something almost religious about Kurzweil’s scientism, an observation he himself makes in the film, noting the similarities between his goals and that of the world’s religions: “the idea of a profound transformation in the future, eternal life, bringing back the dead—but the fact that we’re applying technology to achieve the goals that have been talked about in all human philosophies is not accidental because it does reflect the goal of humanity.” Although the film never discloses Kurzweil’s religious beliefs (he was raised by Jewish parents as a Unitarian Universalist), in a (presumably) unintentionally humorous moment that ends the film Kurzweil reflects on the God question and answers it himself: “Does God exist? I would say, ‘Not yet.’” Cheeky.</p>
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